February, 2009
‘Biggest shock to world wealth since WW2′
There is an interesting statistic in Morgan Stanley’s latest note “the case for gold”.
Not only does Morgan Stanley appear to have joined the brigade of renewed bullion believers Goldman Sachs, Citi,
Synchronised depression
The OECD has published its latest set of leading indicators. They’re not great. But you don’t need us to tell you that. Here’s Albert Edwards:
The OECD have just released their latest leading indicators.
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville this morning,
- Synchronised depression: the OECD’s leading indicators.
- Regime change at RBS.
- Bad news at Julius Baer… and a “minor” trading incident.
- The tide may be turning for global shipping.
Does Tesco have a pricing problem?
‘Britain’s biggest discounter’ has had a bit of a market share issue of late.
To wit, this chart from JPM analysts Jaime Vazquez, Alastair Johnson and Bianca Brebnor.
The analysts believe the loss of market share is down to a pricing problem at the UK grocer — and they’ve gone on a bit of a field trip to Tescos around the capital to prove it,
The state of Uranium
This piece was written for FT Alphaville by Gregor Macdonald, an independent energy analyst and investor based in Amherst, Massachusetts.
How goes uranium? Coming out of the previous recession, the uranium story tracks that of most other commodities this decade:
Toyota’s (truly horrible) day
It was as inevitable as the violent ending to a traditional samurai movie – ever since Fitch cut its assessment in November, S&P lowered its outlook to negative in December and Moody’s launched its ratings review.
Does the US have an inventory problem?
Standard Chartered’s latest research on the US by John Calverley and David Semmens alludes to an interesting point. The drop in Q4 GDP was only less than expected because sales fell faster than businesses could cut output.
Markets live transcript 6 Feb 2009
Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:09 on 6 Feb 2009. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT (NH) Bryce Elder, FT (BE) NH:Good morning and welcome to another edition of Markets Live
Bad News (Julius) Bärs
Julius Baer, the Swiss private bank, fell as much as 40 per cent in morning trading.
And that’s really not much of a surprise – given the set of mixed 2008 results it released this morning.
Though the bank managed a ChF852m net profit (25 per cent less than last year) — there are problems ahead.
A British Airways yield condundrum
British Airways has just unleashed a £127m net loss in the nine-months through Dec. 31, 2008.
It’s already guiding for a £150m operating loss in the full-year (through March 2009) because of further “economic weakness”
Shipping tides are turning — for now
We were waiting to see if it was a one-day phenomenon, but no – Wednesday’s 15 per cent rise in the Baltic Dry Index has been sustained through another day.
Wednesday’s move to 1,316 points was in fact the biggest daily increase in almost 25 years and came reportedly on signs of a recovery in raw materials trade. On Thursday the index,
Extreme corporate credit bulls
‘Glimmers of hope’ in the corporate bond market have been much-publicised of late. Even Mervyn King is buying.
Indeed, it’s more or less a consensus view now that corporate credit should be an overweighted asset class,
Two tales of a city — and Dubai’s luxury car giveaway
Could this be the city of uber-luxury hotels, the place with a reputation for huge salaries and extravagant living?
As highlighted in a (much-emailed) report in The Times on Friday about abandoned luxury cars in Dubai,
Out with the old
Wave goodbye to Sir Fred Goodwin’s old regime.
RBS’s new chairman, Sir Phillip Hampton, has taken a very dramatic the axe to Fred the Shred’s boardroom.
That’s Bob Scott, Jim Currie, Bill Friedrich,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Friday,
- AIG implosion: The two cows version.
- Country Bank of Amerillwide: what is it?
- Ken again and the “longest board meeting in anyone’s memory”.
- How to land a job in private equity.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Friday’s FT,
Martin Wolf: It is always the economy, stupid
I find that Americans who are aware other economies exist have one source of comfort: the US is in bad shape,
Snap news
The latest on Friday,
- Royal Bank of Scotland announces board restructuring — statement.
- Evolution Group says 2008 profit in line with expectations, 2009 has started well — statement.
- Julius Baer 2008 net profit decreases by a quarter to CHF852m — statement.
US eyes converting bank stakes
US officials are examining ways gradually to convert government stakes in banks into ordinary shares as banks accumulate losses. The aim would be to provide a drip-feed of additional common equity as needed to cover losses – without the government owning a larger stake in the banks than is necessary.
News Corp posts $6.4bn Q4 loss
News Corp on Thursday night forecast a worse than expected 30% drop in operating income this year and unveiled a $6.4bn quarterly loss. Rupert Murdoch’s media group took an $8.4bn non-cash writedown to reflect the deteriorating outlook for its television channels and Dow Jones,
Swiss Re turns to Buffett
Swiss Re on Thursday turned to Warren Buffett, the renowned US investor, for SFr3bn ($2.6bn) in fresh funding and cut its dividend to virtually zero as it struggled to retain its investment-grade credit rating.
Toyota loses AAA rating
Toyota, the world’s largest carmaker, lost its top credit rating from Moody’s on Friday as plunging car demand in the US and Japan propel the company to its first operating loss in 71 years, reports Bloomberg.
BofE, ECB, signal more rate cuts
Borrowing costs still have further to fall after the Bank of England cut UK interest rates by another half a percentage point to hit a 315-year low of 1%, economists forecast Thursday. The Bank’s monetary policy committee said the world economy and the UK had deteriorated in the past month and were “in the throes of a severe and synchronised downturn”.
Mandelson warns on bank bonuses
UK financial institutions were warned on Thursday by Lord Mandelson, the UK business secretary, that they risked public outcry if they handed out bonuses perceived as “exorbitant” as the City bonus season gets underway amid a gathering global backlash against executive compensation paid by banks bailed out by public funds.
Sarkozy hits at traders’ rewards
Political pressure on executive compensation in Europe mounted on Thursday as Nicolas Sarkozy, French president, signalled a clampdown on traders’ bonuses. Sarkozy ruled out fixed pay limits for top executives at companies receiving state aid,
Deutsche hails US pay-curbs
The head of Germany’s biggest bank on Thursday suggested that Barack Obama’s tough curbs on boardroom pay could encourage the best executives to defect to overseas rivals. Josef Ackermann, chief executive of Deutsche Bank,
RBS scraps insurance unit sale
Royal Bank of Scotland has scrapped the sale of its UK insurance operations, almost 10 months after putting them up for sale. RBS said Thursday it had ended the discussions after concluding that a recent joint bid from buy-out groups BC Partners and Apollo,
Funds move to Tarp recipients
Futures-trading clients have embarked on a “flight to quality”, removing funds from financial institutions that have not received US government bail-outs and redirecting them to banks that have been given federal money,
Madoff investors refunded $20m
A group of investors who put money with Bernard Madoff through a European “feeder” fund just before he was arrested for allegedly running a $50bn fraud scheme have been refunded more than $20m after agreement from the US bankruptcy trustee.
Madoff client list made public
A 162-page list containing names of thousands of apparent customers of Bernard Madoff was made public this week and includes prominent figures from sports, politics and business as well as Madoff’s own lawyer,
Santander upbeat on profits
Emilio Botín, chairman of Spanish bank Santander, on Thursday predicted steady profits and dividends in 2009 despite losses related to the Madoff fraud and recessions in some of the bank’s main markets.