It’s been one week since the start of the Chinese New Year and the Year of the Ox — which some fortune-tellers were predicting would be an (ironically) un-bullish period. How has that prediction fared seven days into the new year?
Recall this story from the Associated Press:
HONG KONG - If the global economy fails to recover in 2009, the housing bubble or credit crunch may not be to blame. It could be a lack of fire.
Chinese fortune tellers say fire - one of the five elements mystics believe form the basis of the universe - is essential to financial well-being. And fire is nowhere to be found in the mythology of this coming Year of the Ox, the Chinese lunar year that begins Monday.
“Fire is the driving force behind economic growth. Without it, the market lacks momentum,” said Raymond Lo, a Hong Kong master of feng shui, the ancient Chinese practice of trying to achieve health, harmony and prosperity through building design, the placement of objects and auspicious dates and numbers.
Chinese soothsayers see a deepening recession, millions more losing their jobs, and stocks and home prices continuing to fall. That’s more or less in line with what some economists are predicting, but some fortune tellers are throwing in other dire predictions - massive earthquakes, rising U.S.-Russian tensions and trouble for U.S. President Barack Obama.
And lo and behold — today China says 20m migrant workers have lost their jobs — about 15 per cent of the total migrant labour pool. The PRC’s $4,000bn yuan stimulus package has also pushed the government into a 111bn yuan deficit for 2008. Meanwhile, production in Japan, one of China’s biggest trading partners is dropping faster than you can say “寧為太平犬，不做亂世人“. A lack of fire, indeed.
But wait. Feng shui master Lo sees a glimmer of hope.
The combination of two elements changes every lunar year, and this time it’s two earths, the element that represents harmony and peace. Not since 1949, when the world order was settling down after the Second World War, has an Ox Year seen two earth signs.
“It is a year for healing … from the turbulent time the world has experienced,” Lo said.
Awwww.
We note, however, news that the Chinese Communist Party has called for army members to “uncompromisingly obey the Party and Central Military Commission’s command at any time and under any circumstances.” Cuddly feng shui it is not.
Related links:
Tide turning for treasuries - FT Alphaville
Wen looks at fresh Chinese stimulus - FT
China in 2009: Year of the ox - The Economist
