Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:13 on 21 Jan 2009. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT (NH) Bryce Elder, FT (BE)
NH:
Good morning
NH:
This is Alphaville’s Markets Live
NH:
Our daily display of shredded nerves
NH:
and this morning’s action has done nothing to make us feel any less anxious
NH:
NH:
banks collapsing on a global basis
NH:
sterling falling
NH:
Mervyn King going all Donald Rumsfeld on us
NH:
and to cap it all off
NH:
Murphy has decided to take a break
NH:
that’s right
NH:
in the middle of this latest bout of jitters
NH:
he is swanning off to his beach hut in Mozambique
NH:
I am not making this up
NH:
for 11 days
NH:
or 8 ML sessions
NH:
that’s the figure which matters to me
NH:
which means I need another blogger
NH:
and as I have failed to secure a guest blogger
NH:
I was thinking of Anton Kreel from Millionaire Traders
NH:
or even Lex van Dam
NH:
I will have to settle for Bryce Elder from the London markets desk
NH:
he is struggling to log on to Paul’s Dell at the moment
NH:
so just bear with us
NH:
He can’t get at his emails
NH:
which means the network system here is not too good
BE:
In now – but still trying to get email access
NH:
anyway
NH:
Bryce are you there?
NH:
lots to get through this morning
BE:
Partially
BE:
Morning
11:05AM
NH:
right Bryce
NH:
I was rather hoping you might be able to make some sense of what is going on this morning
NH:
Barclays for example
NH:
WTF?
NH:
shares have plunged again
NH:
and this is now very serious indeed
NH:
a week last Monday
NH:
Barclays was trading at 180p
NH:
this morning its shares are down a further 15.4p at 57p
NH:
and in the meantime all we have heard from Barclays
NH:
has been positive
NH:
full year figures are going to be ahead of expectations
NH:
which means they could make £6bn
NH:
and some comments from Varley
NH:
saying that they are looking at the asset protection scheme
NH:
so I repeat my question
NH:
Barclays
NH:
WTF?
BE:
well …
BE:
I think
BE:
the generalized rout of financials in the US overnight did not help
BE:
and I think Barclays ADRs were down something like 40%
NH:
fair point
NH:
certainly was carnage in the US financials
NH:
if you are of a nervous disposition
NH:
look away now
NH:
because some of these numbers are very scary indeed
NH:
Citigroup fell 20%, to $2.80
BE:
below $3, jeepers
NH:
Bank of America down 29%, to $5.10.
NH:
and then of course there was State Street, off 59%
NH:
PNC Financial Services Group which bought National City last year, fell 41%
NH:
and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., which both bought ailing banking giants last year, they each fell more than 20%
BE:
Can I look yet?
NH:
yes, it is safe
BE:
so the generalized carnage in the US meant that Barclays was never gone to open in positive territory
BE:
but Barclays has been singled out for especially harsh treatment
BE:
and this is because confidence has completely broken down
BE:
not just in Barclays, but banks generally
BE:
investors are highly dubious of audited numbers and trading statements
BE:
and they have every right to be
BE:
remember, RBS issued statements last year
BE:
saying everything was fine and results would exceed expectations
BE:
and look what has happened to them
BE:
So I think the long only funds are working on the assumption that everything the UK banks say is false or will prove not to be true
BE:
and are selling
BE:
and unless a bank can come out and prove other they will keep on selling
NH:
er, right
NH:
that’s pretty bleak
NH:
looks like Barclays has got itself into a catch 22
NH:
is there anything they can do to stop this rout becoming something much more serious?
BE:
here’s one suggestion
BE:
Barclays (BARC.LN) and Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.LN) are under pressure to report full-year results earlier than scheduled, says a trader. Trader notes that after Royal Bank of Scotland’s (RBS.LN) trading update Monday, there is an increased amount of uncertainty over the financial positions of Barclays and Lloyds. Adds that fears of nationalization for Barclays and Lloyds are keeping investors on edge. The low share prices of the banks make further significant dilution for current equity shareholders in UK banks probable, “as bankruptcies, unemployment, and forced asset selling increase,” says Panmure Gordon’s analyst Sandy Chen. Barclays shares -23% at 56p and Lloyds -20% at 36p. (ISD)
NH:
I suppose that might help
NH:
but does anyone even trust the audited figures
NH:
they certainly don’t believe trading statements
NH:
as Barclays has shown
NH:
BE:
of course
BE:
they may just decide to tough things out
BE:
and hope this all blows over
NH:
not sure that is going to happen
NH:
(T2K – very interesting idea – Moulton to value bank assets)
NH:
actually one more thing on Barclays
NH:
apparently the FSA are investigating the drop in the share price
BE:
really?
BE:
Why?
NH:
er dunno
NH:
you would have thought after the embarrassment of the HBOS investigation
NH:
they would be wary of this sort of thing
NH:
but according to the Guardian
NH:
they aren’t
NH:
and are trying to find the people guilt of bringing down the Barc share price
NH:
The Financial Services Authority is analysing Friday’s share price movements in Barclays when the bank lost a quarter of its stock market value in the last hour of trading.
The City regulator is thought to be asking market players to provide information about the frenzied trading that took place on Friday amid rumours the bank was about to be nationalised or face catastrophic losses in its investment bank.
The City regulator is thought to be asking market players to provide information about the frenzied trading that took place on Friday amid rumours the bank was about to be nationalised or face catastrophic losses in its investment bank.
NH:
The share price move was so dramatic that it prompted Barclays to release a trading statement after the market closed to reassure investors. Despite its insistence that it expects to report profits of at least £5.3bn for 2008, its shares have failed to recoup their losses and fallen further. Today they fell 17% to 72.9p to take the bank’s stock market value to little more than £6bn.
The FSA refused to comment but admitted it was “continuing to monitor the entire situation”. The City regulator would be concerned if there had been concerted efforts to manipulate a share price by spreading false rumours. It conducted an investigation in to the share price movements of HBOS last March but did not bring any enforcement action.
The FSA refused to comment but admitted it was “continuing to monitor the entire situation”. The City regulator would be concerned if there had been concerted efforts to manipulate a share price by spreading false rumours. It conducted an investigation in to the share price movements of HBOS last March but did not bring any enforcement action.
NH:
The pummelling of bank shares this week has coincided with the end of the ban on short selling that was introduced in September to protect HBOS from speculative assault. Short sellers borrow shares they do not own to sell on the stock market in the hope that the price will fall and they will be able to buy them back more cheaply.
Although the ban was lifted, the FSA maintained a requirement for hedge funds and other traders to disclose any short positions. Yesterday there were just a handful. Landsdowne admitted it had extended its bet on a fall in Barclays shares while hedge fund Paulson confirmed it still held a short position in the shares of Lloyds following its takeover of HBOS. Paulson, named after hedge fund manager John Paulson, is also running a short position in RBS, reaping in an estimated profit of £30m during the rout of the last of two days
NH:
Now
NH:
given the fact we have new short selling disclosure rules
NH:
and they have thrown up nothing
NH:
what exactly would an investigation achieve?
BE:
nothing
BE:
other than to tell us
BE:
Long-onlys are selling Barclays
NH:
yeah, because they want proof what banks are saying is true
NH:
the onus is on the banks to prove it
NH:
if they don’t they will keep on selling
11:15AM
NH:
and what about the rest of the great British banking sector
NH:
or what’s left of it
BE:
Mixed
BE:
no respite for Lloyds
BE:
down 5.2p at 39.6p
BE:
Nationalised Westminster up 0.7p at 11p.
NH:
that’s RBS
NH:
for those of you who don’t get the joke
BE:
HSBC at 495p, up 10p
11:17AM
NH:
right thanks for all that
NH:
before we leave the banking world
NH:
there is just time for a quick note from Sandy Chen
NH:
the banks analyst at Panmure Gordon
NH:
who has been looking at the new FSA proposals on capital ratios
NH:
for those who missed this news amid Monday’s bewildering array of initiatives from the govt
NH:
the idea that banks will be able to risk weight assets
NH:
across the economic cycle
NH:
as opposed to one moment in time
NH:
Sam did a good post on this on Monday
NH:
and this seems a pretty ludicrous on the face of its
NH:
allowing to banks to do this would surely encourage trouble
NH:
even if it approved capital ratios
NH:
here’s Sam’s piece
NH:
for some further reading
BE:
So what does Mr Chen make of it all?
NH:
well
NH:
it is an interesting note
NH:
worthy of a post later on
NH:
he reckons the whole thing could prove counter productive
NH:
well, that is a bit of an understatement
NH:
In as much as it would give the market a false impression of strengthened capital ratios
NH:
and what investors want right now is clarity
NH:
not more smoke of mirrors
NH:
or fancy tricks
NH:
and of course
NH:
a false impression would do nothing to save a bank if it were hit by increased losses on assets
BE:
So basically, Chen is saying this is dumb
BE:
A confidence trick
NH:
yeah, FSA con men
NH:
report them to the BBC’s Watchdog
NH:
get Nicky Campbell on the case
NH:
anyway, here’s the note
NH:
FSA move could prove counterproductive
NH:
The FSA’s announcement of a change in the calculation of risk-weighted
assets will give the markets a false impression of strengthened capital
adequacy ratios whilst also removing visibility in the calculation of those
ratios. In the current context, we expect this will prove counterproductive.
assets will give the markets a false impression of strengthened capital
adequacy ratios whilst also removing visibility in the calculation of those
ratios. In the current context, we expect this will prove counterproductive.
In our view, the low share prices of UK banks – combined with the worsening flow of
macro data that support our deflation and deleveraging thesis – make further significant
dilution for current equity shareholders in UK banks probable, as bankruptcies,
unemployment, and forced asset selling increase. Given the potential scale of asset
problems, we think the possibility that losses overwhelm the shareholders’ equity bases
of many banks cannot be dismissed.
NH:
In this context, the FSA’s loosening of capital adequacy requirements – by changing
from a point-in-time to a through-the-cycle basis for calculating risk-weighted assets – is
exactly the worst thing to do, in our opinion. What the markets were expecting (and
what we thought would have been appropriate) was a temporary lowering of the
regulatory minimum from, say, 4% for Tier 1 to 2% for Tier 1 – this would have been a
transparent move that applied across the piste for all UK banks.
from a point-in-time to a through-the-cycle basis for calculating risk-weighted assets – is
exactly the worst thing to do, in our opinion. What the markets were expecting (and
what we thought would have been appropriate) was a temporary lowering of the
regulatory minimum from, say, 4% for Tier 1 to 2% for Tier 1 – this would have been a
transparent move that applied across the piste for all UK banks.
Instead, the FSA has effectively given the risk-weighted asset calculation back to the
banks, which in turn can now calculate risk weights based on their past few decades of
data (and only the past few years of data for many structured products such as CDOs
etc). The problem is that, by definition, this historical data does not include the off-thescale
rises in bad debts that are happening now.
NH:
In our opinion, this would leave the markets with a false impression of strengthened
capital adequacy ratios, whilst also removing visibility in the calculation of those ratios.
Bank shares could rally on the reported strengthening – especially banks like RBS and
BARC, which have relatively high proportions of the structured credits that we think
would benefit most from the switch to using historical averages in calculating RWAs –
but from a fundamental perspective little would have changed. The individual banks’
equity bases would still be at risk of being wiped out by bad debts.
capital adequacy ratios, whilst also removing visibility in the calculation of those ratios.
Bank shares could rally on the reported strengthening – especially banks like RBS and
BARC, which have relatively high proportions of the structured credits that we think
would benefit most from the switch to using historical averages in calculating RWAs –
but from a fundamental perspective little would have changed. The individual banks’
equity bases would still be at risk of being wiped out by bad debts.
The bald truth is that neither the government guarantee/insurance programmes nor the
loosened capital adequacy standards will stop the rise in bankruptcies and unemployment
that are dragging the economy further into recession (nor were they designed to do so) –
they will simply hide the true extent of the potential losses and capital strains that banks
are facing. These measures, we think, will prove counterproductive if, as we expect, the
downturn worsens significantly.
NH:
It is beyond the remit of a sell-side banks analyst to suggest this, but we think the
government should follow the lead of King Canute – surrounded by advisors who say
the tide can be turned with some clever financial engineering, the government should
instead turn around and let the business cycle run its course, in what Schumpeter called
“creative destruction”. Once asset prices fall to clearing levels, the economy will recover,
and banks will lend again, on much more solid fundamentals.
government should follow the lead of King Canute – surrounded by advisors who say
the tide can be turned with some clever financial engineering, the government should
instead turn around and let the business cycle run its course, in what Schumpeter called
“creative destruction”. Once asset prices fall to clearing levels, the economy will recover,
and banks will lend again, on much more solid fundamentals.
BE:
Blimey
BE:
he is saying
BE:
let the banks die
NH:
yep, let nature take its course
NH:
that really is quite frightening
BE:
beyond the remit of a sell-side banks analyst …
BE:
Great stuff
NH:
it is
NH:
and Monkey, very funny Simpson’s gag
11:22AM
NH:
Right, just to clear things up Judge Judy
NH:
40 yr was banned by Alpha NY
NH:
Alida I think
NH:
not sure how long he has been sin binned for
NH:
Will find out and attempt to get him freed
NH:
right
NH:
time to have a look at the wider market
11:23AM
BE:
So we’re down. Again.
BE:
FTSE off 45 at 4046. Day low was at 4001.
BE:
Market was pretty resilient early doors
BE:
given the declines on Wall Street
BE:
A record Inauguration Day drop
BE:
Dow off 332.13 (4.01%), Nasdaq down 5.78% and the S&P 500 5.28% lower
BE:
all of which was deeply unpleasant
BE:
and paced by the financials as we discussed earlier
BE:
that said, as the figures above suggest
BE:
the sell off was pretty broad based
BE:
and there was more grim news on the jobs front – Warner Bros cutting 800, Rio -1100
NH:
OK thanks for that quick summary
NH:
we should have a quick look at some other assets classes
NH:
currencies
BE:
What’s the GBK doing?
NH:
somewhat predicatably
NH:
it is under pressure again
NH:
currently $1.3766 against the dollar
NH:
and a Euro will be 0.9377p
NH:
I guess this is fears about nationalisation of the banks
NH:
and what happens if RBS and its huge balance sheet is brought onto the government’s books
NH:
sterling would surely get hammered
BE:
HJS – interesting idea. We look to be heading for parity with the Zimbabwean dollar.
BE:
I don’t suppose Mervyn King’s speech to the CBI last night helped
BE:
he did nothing to talk up sterling
BE:
and he also hinted rates were going lower
BE:
Not that anyone was too surprised by that.
NH:
yeah, being looking at the Governor’s speech again
NH:
he came out with a couple of classic lines
NH:
real Rumsfield stuff
NH:
here’s the relevant pars, highlighted
NH:
The conventional approach to such unconventional measures is to buy assets, such as
government securities or gilts, which are traded in liquid markets to boost the supply of
money. Provided the additional reserves are not simply hoarded by banks, as happened
to some extent in Japan earlier in this decade, such asset purchases can increase the
supply of broad money and credit and the liquidity of private sector portfolios, raising
spending. The effectiveness of this approach is likely to be enhanced by the clear
commitment by the MPC to take the measures necessary to meet the inflation target in
the medium term.
government securities or gilts, which are traded in liquid markets to boost the supply of
money. Provided the additional reserves are not simply hoarded by banks, as happened
to some extent in Japan earlier in this decade, such asset purchases can increase the
supply of broad money and credit and the liquidity of private sector portfolios, raising
spending. The effectiveness of this approach is likely to be enhanced by the clear
commitment by the MPC to take the measures necessary to meet the inflation target in
the medium term.
NH:
In addition to these conventional unconventional measures there are also unconventional unconventional measures
NH:
unconventional unconventional measures
NH:
WTF
BE:
Um …
BE:
what I think he means
BE:
is that conventional, unconventional measures
BE:
is bog standard QE
BE:
and unconventional, unconventional
BE:
is buying stuff
BE:
like corporate bonds
NH:
ah, targeting assets prices then
NH:
acting as a buyer of last resort
NH:
very confusing
NH:
and most of the papers did not know what to make of it this morning
NH:
but clearly unconventional, unconventional is not just about turning on the printing presses then
NH:
and boosting money supply
NH:
though it is partly that
NH:
here’s some more from Mervyn Rumsfield
NH:
When credit markets are dysfunctional, as some are at present,
targeted purchases by the Bank of England of assets may improve liquidity in markets for
those credit instruments. The objective of such purchases would be not only to boost the
supply of broad money but also to increase liquidity and trading activity in the markets
for those assets. A reduction in the illiquidity premium for a particular credit instrument
might help to stimulate issuance by corporate borrowers and the resumption of capital
market flows, thus reducing reliance on bank lending. It could also raise the values of
assets that are currently under-priced because of high illiquidity premia, helping to
strengthen the balance sheets of banks and other financial institutions
targeted purchases by the Bank of England of assets may improve liquidity in markets for
those credit instruments. The objective of such purchases would be not only to boost the
supply of broad money but also to increase liquidity and trading activity in the markets
for those assets. A reduction in the illiquidity premium for a particular credit instrument
might help to stimulate issuance by corporate borrowers and the resumption of capital
market flows, thus reducing reliance on bank lending. It could also raise the values of
assets that are currently under-priced because of high illiquidity premia, helping to
strengthen the balance sheets of banks and other financial institutions
BE:
let’s move on
NH:
OK
NH:
but before we do
NH:
lots of broker complaining this morning
NH:
saying today’s edition of the FT was one of the most depressing ever
NH:
and they may have a point
NH:
here’s some of the main articles
NH:
which were enough to have you choking on the cornflakes
NH:
BoE to buy up corporate bonds
NH:
sterling suffers fresh sell off
NH:
Stricken British Banks are shunned by overseas lenders
NH:
Foreign Banks blamed for opening lending void
NH:
Sector Fears lead to faltering start for Lloyds Banking Group
NH:
and that’s before you reach all of the stuff on jobs cuts
BE:
yeah
BE:
pretty depressing stuff
BE:
but unfortunately that is the reality
NH:
it is
11:34AM
NH:
EmptyEnd asking about oil stocks below
NH:
one that it going well
NH:
seems to be Tullow Oil
NH:
which has got a £400m equity placing away
NH:
with little trouble
NH:
done at 600p
BE:
Which would be a 0.5p discount on yesterday’s close. Amazing.
NH:
that is amazing
NH:
snapped up
BE:
Well they’ve got a decent story, and it also reflects that they’ve been
preparing the ground for quite a while.
preparing the ground for quite a while.
BE:
So the fundraising didn’t spook anyone
BE:
Plus there’s a big short position.
NH:
think you are right there
NH:
price has come off the boil
NH:
perhaps that’s the way to get a placing away
NH:
leak it
NH:
get loads of people short
NH:
and allow them to buy it back
NH:
job done
NH:
Tullow shares were 740p earlier this month
NH:
so that trade would have worked well
BE:
Should also note there was another trading statement, which looks a bit
disappointing by recent standards.
disappointing by recent standards.
BE:
Analysts were expecting a bit better than the production guidance of
60k barrels a day.
60k barrels a day.
NH:
Any comment on that?
BE:
This from Citigroup
BE:
Summary — A share placing to effectively make-good the funding shortfall
arising on termination of MBoundi sale should not derail the underlying
Tullow
equity story. Trading Statement guidance on current operations – lower ’09
production guidance and exploration write-off – may disappoint; however
progress in maturing Ghana/Uganda remains the reason to Hold the shares.
arising on termination of MBoundi sale should not derail the underlying
Tullow
equity story. Trading Statement guidance on current operations – lower ’09
production guidance and exploration write-off – may disappoint; however
progress in maturing Ghana/Uganda remains the reason to Hold the shares.
BE:
Debt Funding — Tullow highlighted the desire for incremental funding
headroom with 1H08 results, primarily to assist in funding its share of
development capex associated with Jubilee Phase-1 – likely in region of
$1.2bn
(net). At the time, Tullow indicated a desire to raise underlying debt
capacity
from $1.35bn toward $2.0bn. This aspiration remains unchanged and should
not be confused with today’s placing. Tullow indicates 60% approvals in
place
and completion expected during February.
Equity Placing — Tullow plans to place c66.9m shares likely raising c£400m.
This placing appears to plug the gap that the termination of the £285m
disposal of the MBoundi field (announced in 2008) will leave. We note that
over the past week the stock has given up most of the gains from four
drilling
success in the past month, perhaps partly in anticipation of an equity
issue.
headroom with 1H08 results, primarily to assist in funding its share of
development capex associated with Jubilee Phase-1 – likely in region of
$1.2bn
(net). At the time, Tullow indicated a desire to raise underlying debt
capacity
from $1.35bn toward $2.0bn. This aspiration remains unchanged and should
not be confused with today’s placing. Tullow indicates 60% approvals in
place
and completion expected during February.
Equity Placing — Tullow plans to place c66.9m shares likely raising c£400m.
This placing appears to plug the gap that the termination of the £285m
disposal of the MBoundi field (announced in 2008) will leave. We note that
over the past week the stock has given up most of the gains from four
drilling
success in the past month, perhaps partly in anticipation of an equity
issue.
BE:
Ghana — A positive tone of commentary, but limited ‘new’ information for
the
market. Following recent Mahogany-3/Hyedua-2 successes the P90-P50 range
on Jubilee field has been upgraded by 20% to 600-1200mbbls, consistent with
market expectation, in our view. 170mbbls (net) reserves booked at y/e.
Uganda — Following recent drilling success in the Butiaba region, a first
formal
guidance on discovered resources is provided – at 600mbbls this is
consistent
with expectation and well ahead of indicative 400mbbls commercial
threshold.
Trading Update — 2008 Operating performance in-line with consensus –
production of 66.6kboed at low end of 66.6-68.2kboed range. 2009 production
guidance of 60kboed is 10% light of Citi expectation of 65kboed and it is
unclear whether guidance includes non-disposal of M’Boundi. A £180m w/o of
capitalised exploration is a surprise, reflects a prioritization of
Ghana/Uganda
and the expense of other assets which remain in the portfolio.
the
market. Following recent Mahogany-3/Hyedua-2 successes the P90-P50 range
on Jubilee field has been upgraded by 20% to 600-1200mbbls, consistent with
market expectation, in our view. 170mbbls (net) reserves booked at y/e.
Uganda — Following recent drilling success in the Butiaba region, a first
formal
guidance on discovered resources is provided – at 600mbbls this is
consistent
with expectation and well ahead of indicative 400mbbls commercial
threshold.
Trading Update — 2008 Operating performance in-line with consensus –
production of 66.6kboed at low end of 66.6-68.2kboed range. 2009 production
guidance of 60kboed is 10% light of Citi expectation of 65kboed and it is
unclear whether guidance includes non-disposal of M’Boundi. A £180m w/o of
capitalised exploration is a surprise, reflects a prioritization of
Ghana/Uganda
and the expense of other assets which remain in the portfolio.
BE:
And from Numis, who stay positive
BE:
n our view, Tullow’s share placing of 9.1% of outstanding share capital,
asset
write-offs and impairments of over £265mn and non-completion of the $485mn
M’boundi asset sale are likely to weigh on the stock today. We see positive
catalysts on the horizon with the company on track to secure a $2bn banking
facility in February 2009 helping de-risk the development of Jubilee, Ghana
which is
set to convert the company’s growing reserve base into production.
Production: The company reported FY08 production volumes of 66.6kboed, 2%
below
our expectations of 67.8kboed and guidance of 68kboed. Working interest
production is
expected to average 60kboed in 2009, we see risk to the downside and are
forecasting
just 55kboed.
Price realisations: Reported oil price realisations were $93/bbl a 4%
discount to Brent
and in-line with our expectations. Realised UK spot gas prices of 52p/therm
were 12%
below our post hedge forecast of 59p/therm.
Exploration write-off and impairments: Exploration write-off is expected to
be £55mn
and Tullow expect additional asset write-offs and impairments of £210mn
reflecting the
downturn in commodity prices and diversion of spend from non-core
activities.
Capital expenditure: Capital expenditure for 2008 was in-line with guidance
at
£480mn and is expected to rise to £600mn in 2009.
Portfolio management proceeds: Non completion of the $485mn M’boundi asset
sale
raises the concern that the deal may fall through given the fall in oil
price since the
divestment. Sale proceeds of £285mn in 2008 are broadly in-line with
expectations.
Jubilee, Ghana: P50 recoverable reserves at Jubilee are now estimated at
over
1.2mmboe and we believe that today’s share placing combined with debt
facilities to be
secured in February 09 should de-risk startup timing. We assume a 2013
first phase
startup in our risked NAV.
Valuation: Tullow oil trades at 0.91 times risked NAV compared to the
peer-group on
0.89 times. We remain positive on Tullow Oil, however, we prefer stocks
that offer fully
funded near term production growth such as Premier Oil (Buy, 996p/share).
asset
write-offs and impairments of over £265mn and non-completion of the $485mn
M’boundi asset sale are likely to weigh on the stock today. We see positive
catalysts on the horizon with the company on track to secure a $2bn banking
facility in February 2009 helping de-risk the development of Jubilee, Ghana
which is
set to convert the company’s growing reserve base into production.
Production: The company reported FY08 production volumes of 66.6kboed, 2%
below
our expectations of 67.8kboed and guidance of 68kboed. Working interest
production is
expected to average 60kboed in 2009, we see risk to the downside and are
forecasting
just 55kboed.
Price realisations: Reported oil price realisations were $93/bbl a 4%
discount to Brent
and in-line with our expectations. Realised UK spot gas prices of 52p/therm
were 12%
below our post hedge forecast of 59p/therm.
Exploration write-off and impairments: Exploration write-off is expected to
be £55mn
and Tullow expect additional asset write-offs and impairments of £210mn
reflecting the
downturn in commodity prices and diversion of spend from non-core
activities.
Capital expenditure: Capital expenditure for 2008 was in-line with guidance
at
£480mn and is expected to rise to £600mn in 2009.
Portfolio management proceeds: Non completion of the $485mn M’boundi asset
sale
raises the concern that the deal may fall through given the fall in oil
price since the
divestment. Sale proceeds of £285mn in 2008 are broadly in-line with
expectations.
Jubilee, Ghana: P50 recoverable reserves at Jubilee are now estimated at
over
1.2mmboe and we believe that today’s share placing combined with debt
facilities to be
secured in February 09 should de-risk startup timing. We assume a 2013
first phase
startup in our risked NAV.
Valuation: Tullow oil trades at 0.91 times risked NAV compared to the
peer-group on
0.89 times. We remain positive on Tullow Oil, however, we prefer stocks
that offer fully
funded near term production growth such as Premier Oil (Buy, 996p/share).
BE:
So it looks like the analysts were calling it down first thing.
NH:
Yeah.
BE:
And the shares … ?
NH:
up 5p at 605.5p
BE:
Excellent
11:40AM
NH:
anything caught your eye this morning
NH:
any RAW for example?
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
BE:
a few rumours doing the rounds in Credit Suisse
BE:
like this
BE:
Credit Suisse Group (CS), Switzerland’s second-biggest
bank behind UBS AG (UBS), has lost around 1.0 billion Swiss francs ($880
million) each week in October through trading operations, weekly HandelsZeitung
reports, citing a member of Credit Suisse’s management.
Credit Suisse may post a net loss of CHF6 billion for the full year,
according to the weekly which is published Wednesday.
NH:
wow
NH:
first Deutsche Bank blowing a load on prop trading
NH:
and now CS
NH:
who’s next?
BE:
what we can certainly say is that December was a tough month for the IB’s
NH:
as the results from Soc Gen this morning show
NH:
and recent reports about BNP
NH:
here’s some of the headlines that came out of the Soc Gen figures
NH:
SOCGEN SAYS Q4 ESTIMATED GROUP NET INCOME SHOULD BREAKEVEN
*DJ SocGen: CIB Unit Should Post 4Q Net Close To Breakeven
*SOCGEN TO DECIDE ON DIVIDEND AT FEB. 17 BOARD MEETING
*DJ Societe Generale: Estimated 4Q Net Pft Should Breakeven
*SOCGEN TO REPORT NET PROFIT OF ABOUT EU2 BILLION FOR 2008
*DJ Societe Generale: Sees Ratio Close To 9% After 2nd Govt Cap
*SOCIETE GENERALE SEES NET PROFIT OF EU2 BILLION FOR 2008
*SOCGEN TO DRAW EU1.7 BILLION IN NEW STATE AID
*SOCGEN SAYS IT SHOULD POST BREAK-EVEN RESULTS IN 4Q
*DJ Societe Generale: Should Post Tier One Ratio Of About 8.5%
*SOCGEN SEES NET PROFIT OF EU2 BILLION FOR 2008
*DJ Societe Generale: Bd Will Determine Dividend on Feb. 17
*SOCGEN WELCOMES THE IMPLEMENTATION OF 2N STAGE OF FRENCH PLAN
*DJ Societe Generale 2008 Net Pft About EUR2B
DJ French Fin Min:Banks Respecting Commitment To Increase Credit
*DJ SocGen: CIB Unit Should Post 4Q Net Close To Breakeven
*SOCGEN TO DECIDE ON DIVIDEND AT FEB. 17 BOARD MEETING
*DJ Societe Generale: Estimated 4Q Net Pft Should Breakeven
*SOCGEN TO REPORT NET PROFIT OF ABOUT EU2 BILLION FOR 2008
*DJ Societe Generale: Sees Ratio Close To 9% After 2nd Govt Cap
*SOCIETE GENERALE SEES NET PROFIT OF EU2 BILLION FOR 2008
*SOCGEN TO DRAW EU1.7 BILLION IN NEW STATE AID
*SOCGEN SAYS IT SHOULD POST BREAK-EVEN RESULTS IN 4Q
*DJ Societe Generale: Should Post Tier One Ratio Of About 8.5%
*SOCGEN SEES NET PROFIT OF EU2 BILLION FOR 2008
*DJ Societe Generale: Bd Will Determine Dividend on Feb. 17
*SOCGEN WELCOMES THE IMPLEMENTATION OF 2N STAGE OF FRENCH PLAN
*DJ Societe Generale 2008 Net Pft About EUR2B
DJ French Fin Min:Banks Respecting Commitment To Increase Credit
NH:
actually on BNP
NH:
Interesting note out of Citi this morning
NH:
hang on
NH:
will just get it
NH:
and here it is
NH:
Price Weak — BNPP shares declined on the back of a press article in La
Tribune suggesting a lower-than-expected FY08 profit and general sector
weakness. We are adjusting our CIB numbers to take into account the difficult
December trading environment as already reported by other global banks, but
our forecast earnings remain above those suggested by the press article.
Tribune suggesting a lower-than-expected FY08 profit and general sector
weakness. We are adjusting our CIB numbers to take into account the difficult
December trading environment as already reported by other global banks, but
our forecast earnings remain above those suggested by the press article.
NH:
La Tribune Article — La Tribune reported today that BNPP could announce a
€3bn net profit for FY08, substantially below BNPP’s collected consensus of
about €3.7bn. BNPP’s profit as of 9M08 was €4.4bn, so if la Tribune article is
true, it would imply a €1.4bn loss in 4Q08. Our revised FY08 estimate is
€3.5bn profit for the group, and a loss of €931 m for the quarter.
€3bn net profit for FY08, substantially below BNPP’s collected consensus of
about €3.7bn. BNPP’s profit as of 9M08 was €4.4bn, so if la Tribune article is
true, it would imply a €1.4bn loss in 4Q08. Our revised FY08 estimate is
€3.5bn profit for the group, and a loss of €931 m for the quarter.
BNPP Already Warned on October and November CIB — On 16th December,
BNPP had warned that they made a €710 pre tax loss in CIB during the first 11
months. As the 9M08 CIB profit was €880, the implied loss for October and
November in CIB is €1.6bn. At the time of the warning, consensus was
reduced accordingly.
NH:
Global Banks December Read Across Negative — Also December was a difficult
month for CIB. This is confirmed by Deutsche Bank warning on heavy losses in
“credit trading, equity derivatives and equities prop”. Most US investment
banks also reported very weak 4Q08 CIB results.
month for CIB. This is confirmed by Deutsche Bank warning on heavy losses in
“credit trading, equity derivatives and equities prop”. Most US investment
banks also reported very weak 4Q08 CIB results.
Capital Considerations — Investors are concerned with BNPP’s capital position
and the possibility of a rights issue. Although BNPP’s capital ratios are low
versus peers, the company will likely rebuild capital organically. If the earnings
suggested by La Tribune materialise, we estimate it would have a post dividend
impact of about 6 bps on Tier1/core Tier1. We do not believe this to be material
to BNP’s capital ratios.
NH:
Updating Estimates, Maintaining Buy — We are cutting BNPP’s 09E EPS by 6%
and 2010E EPS by 5% to take into account a weaker CIB environment. As a
result we cut our target price to €45 from €55. BNPP results are to be
announced on 19 February.
and 2010E EPS by 5% to take into account a weaker CIB environment. As a
result we cut our target price to €45 from €55. BNPP results are to be
announced on 19 February.
BE:
thanks for that
NH:
let’s get to some stock specific stuff
NH:
Punch Taverns
BE:
Sorry?
BE:
That’s not its name
BE:
ToxicPubCo surely?
NH:
sorry
NH:
yes, TPC
NH:
heading lower this morning
NH:
more worries that cash is going to get trapped in its various securitisations vehicles
BE:
yep
BE:
KBC seems to have sparked this off
BE:
with a pretty aggressive sell not
NH:
Punch down 2.25p at 30p
BE:
pretty close to ANOTHER record low I think
BE:
here’s the note
BE:
Given the markedly weak trading for the first 20 weeks, we have
downgraded vigorously. On re-testing our assumptions on
covenants, we believe that the Punch A securitisation may
become cash trapped in respect of 2009. The resulting
shortage of available cash could make the redemption of the
convertible in December 2010 tight. We are not reassured, and
despite the low valuation, retain our SELL recommendation
BE:
Realistic assumptions. We assume a continued -12% in LFL tenancy income
for the year. This should be a conservative assumption, as the underlying LFL
profit decline is -9%, of which -3% relates to tenancy support, which we forecast
separately. However, -12% is also the underlying volume decline, and we expect
any positive effect of price rises, and of rent increases, to be fragile. For FY10
we assume a further -5% LFL profit decline.
BE:
No quick fix to managed weakness. We also assume a continuing -5% margin
decline in Spirit, combined with LFL sales declining at -2.5%. Against
competitors with strong brands and operations with a sustained quality record, it
is inevitable that price should be an element of the margin decline (the -5% is
volume -1.5%, price -1%, cost -2%, and mix -0.5%), and we assume this
remains. We only expect new management to be able to counter this weakness
gradually.
Increasing cash traps may threaten convertible repayment. Of Punch’s three
securitisations, Spirit is already cash trapped. On our forecast, Punch A
becomes marginal on its full-year review at August 2009, and in fact we forecast
it narrowly to fail its restricted payment covenant at 1.49x against a test of 1.50x,
and therefore to become cash trapped. We still expect that Punch B will trade at
significant headroom to its cash trap level. However, the loss of the Punch A
upstream could threaten the repayment of the convertible, as we explain
overleaf.
BE:
the author is Paul Hickman
BE:
(Sorry for the odd double spacing, by the way. Using Google docs.)
BE:
Kurtosis – Toxic Taverns. Very good. Sounds like a goth bar.
NH:
you done with that?
11:48AM
NH:
Right on the European banks
NH:
not heard any more on ING
NH:
but there some more gloomy notes around on KBC
NH:
including something out of Cazenove this morning
NH:
which is pretty gloomy
NH:
will just fetch that
NH:
all about synthetic CDOs
NH:
another timebomb primed to go off
NH:
KBC – move to IN LINE on likely CDO downgrades €10.4 [KBC.BR, KBC BB] IN LINE, Sector – Neutral
Moody’s announced last Thursday that it has revised the assumptions it uses for rating corporate synthetic CDOs and that it is in the process of reassessing all corporate synthetic CDOs. As a result Moody’s expects to reduce most CDO credit ratings by 3 to 7 notches on average.
Moody’s announced last Thursday that it has revised the assumptions it uses for rating corporate synthetic CDOs and that it is in the process of reassessing all corporate synthetic CDOs. As a result Moody’s expects to reduce most CDO credit ratings by 3 to 7 notches on average.
NH:
KBC’s synthetic CDO portfolio was fair valued at €5.6bn at the end of 08. The main cause of the €3.2bn CDO write-downs to date (and Moody’s downgrades) has been deteriorating RMBS credit quality. RMBS only account for 15% of KBC’s total CDO collateral however, whilst corporate credits account for 80%, suggesting that given the increased focus on corporate credit quality further large write-downs are likely.
NH:
KBC writes down by 100% any CDOs rated Ba3 or below by Moody’s. Whilst it appears that Moody’s is currently only revising the ratings on 100% corporate CDOs, which applies to only 3 of KBC’s 17 CDOs, it is only a matter of time before Moody’s reassesses the mixed corporate/RMBS CDOs in our view. It also raises questions over the credit quality of CLOs and SME loans included in KBC’s €5.9bn ABS portfolio, which is MTM through equity.
NH:
We estimate a Core Tier 1 ratio of 8.2% for 2009. This includes the €3.5bn core capital issue to the Belgian government in December and write-downs of €0.9bn in Q408 and €1.2bn in 2009E. On our estimates KBC would have €3.4bn surplus capital at the end of 09 based on a “minimum” Core Tier 1 ratio of 6.0%.
NH:
We have been positive on the shares given KBC’s apparently strong capital position and potential to absorb further CDO losses which we believed would be relatively limited. KBC’s market cap has fallen €3.8bn (52%) in three days and whilst potential CDO write downs may be largely priced in we believe newsflow will remain negative as Moody’s releases the results of its review and KBC quantifies the impact. Furthermore, the share price decline increases the dilutive effect of the core capital already issued if we assume that this will be eventually replaced with ordinary equity issued at €11 a share, for example. We do not believe a P/NTAV of 0.66x is appealing given increased uncertainty surrounding book value and capital and we move our recommendation to IN LINE.
11:51AM
NH:
I think Bryce has something on the LSE
NH:
figs out tomorrow
NH:
could be dismal
BE:
Yup
BE:
It’s obvious that volumes will be terrible, new issues will be terrible etc. etc. etc
BE:
But it’s also worth noting that something like a third of their revenue is in euros, so there’s a fair old currency effect.
BE:
They’re also getting very good at arguing that competition is somehow good for the entire sector
NH:
yeah they love line
BE:
avoiding regulation etc.
NH:
constantly writting letters to the paper
BE:
So, whatever the outlook says, it may strike some as a bit … er … Panglossian.
11:53AM
NH:
Time for some Libor fixes I think
NH:
DJ 3-Month Euro Libor Fixed At 2.3075%, Vs 2.36875% Tuesday
NH:
DJ 3-Month Sterling Libor Fixed At 2.2125%, Vs 2.23125% Tues
NH:
DJ 3-Month USD Libor Fixed At 1.125%, Vs 1.1225% Tuesday
11:54AM
NH:
anything to finish up on
NH:
any reaction to the DMGT sale of the Standard?
NH:
shares price has barely budged
NH:
up 0.5p at 261p
BE:
UBS don’t fancy it much.
BE:
Sale of Evening Standard announced
DMGT has announced, inline with recent press reports, that it has sold a 76% stake
in the Evening Standard to Russian billionaire Alexander Lebedev for a nominal
sum (UBSe £1). Recent reports suggested that conditions preventing the Standard
from co-operating with competitors such as News International were attached to
the deal, although no details have been disclosed.
Reducing pension liabilities and losses
The sale price reflects both the c£15m pa of losses it is estimated to generate as
well as associated pension liabilities – an issue we believe is likely become more of
a focus for investors in a number of UK media owners in 2009.
Upgrades an offset?
Whilst avoiding these losses would, all things being equal, drive high single digit
cons upgrades, we believe any positive impact on sentiment will be dampened by
the fact that the low sale price will mean leverage only falls from 3.1x net debt to
EBITDA to 2.9x, and concerns that the decision to sell the title to reduce losses
reflects a deteriorating outlook for the remaining parts of the business.
Sell, 240p DCF/SOTP-based PT
We upgrade earnings by c5%, with more conservative B2B assumptions partially
offsetting the higher newspaper profit base. We also cut our dividend forecast in
line with earnings trends. Given its gearing and ongoing earnings risk, we continue
to believe DMGT looks expensive on c6x 09E EV/EBITDA, and is on our ‘Least
Preferred’ list.
DMGT has announced, inline with recent press reports, that it has sold a 76% stake
in the Evening Standard to Russian billionaire Alexander Lebedev for a nominal
sum (UBSe £1). Recent reports suggested that conditions preventing the Standard
from co-operating with competitors such as News International were attached to
the deal, although no details have been disclosed.
Reducing pension liabilities and losses
The sale price reflects both the c£15m pa of losses it is estimated to generate as
well as associated pension liabilities – an issue we believe is likely become more of
a focus for investors in a number of UK media owners in 2009.
Upgrades an offset?
Whilst avoiding these losses would, all things being equal, drive high single digit
cons upgrades, we believe any positive impact on sentiment will be dampened by
the fact that the low sale price will mean leverage only falls from 3.1x net debt to
EBITDA to 2.9x, and concerns that the decision to sell the title to reduce losses
reflects a deteriorating outlook for the remaining parts of the business.
Sell, 240p DCF/SOTP-based PT
We upgrade earnings by c5%, with more conservative B2B assumptions partially
offsetting the higher newspaper profit base. We also cut our dividend forecast in
line with earnings trends. Given its gearing and ongoing earnings risk, we continue
to believe DMGT looks expensive on c6x 09E EV/EBITDA, and is on our ‘Least
Preferred’ list.
NH:
So the Standard loses £15m a year
NH:
didn’t know that
BE:
Some questions about whether the London Lite will survive
BE:
I recommend Peter Kirwan’s blog in the Press Gazett on this subject
BE:
(Only fair, as he flags up this site every other day.)
11:58AM
NH:
Anything to finish up on?
NH:
I have a quick bit of RAW
BE:
Oh good
NH:
bid rumours around in a small cap oil company called Salamander Energy
NH:
up 1p at 106.75p at the moment
BE:
Hm.
NH:
Any more stock lending confessionals?
BE:
An interesting one from Tim Martin, JD Wetherspoon’s dashing chairman,
founder and Dukes of Hazzard afficionado.
founder and Dukes of Hazzard afficionado.
BE:
Having lent 3.6m to RBS, he yesterday slotted 500,000 to close the
loan.
loan.
BE:
Following the clarification on 9 January 2009 from the FSA regarding
disclosure and model code obligations in respect of the use of
shareholdings as security, the Company announces that it was previously
informed by Tim Martin, Chairman, that he had pledged 3.6 million of his
shares in the Company as security for a facility with RBS.
disclosure and model code obligations in respect of the use of
shareholdings as security, the Company announces that it was previously
informed by Tim Martin, Chairman, that he had pledged 3.6 million of his
shares in the Company as security for a facility with RBS.
The Company has been advised by Tim Martin on 20 January 2009 that he sold
500,000 ordinary shares in the Company at 309.5p per share on 20 January
2009 and that the proceeds will be used to repay the balance of the
facility to RBS; the security over any shares is in the process of being
released. Following this transaction, Tim Martin now holds 33,309,934
ordinary shares in the Company representing 24.0% of the Company’s issued
share capital.
NH:
Nice. Share price reaction?
BE:
Down a bit – 10p lower at 305p.
BE:
And that’s despite push from Cazenove following yesterday’s trading
update.
update.
BE:
Overall, we believe JDW’s strong trading in Q2 suggests that its pricing
strategy fits well with the current consumer environment, is resulting in
increased market share and is being supported by effective cost control to
facilitate the discounting. Based on the 2.6% lfl growth in Q2 we are now
assuming +2% for FY09 and upgrading our EPS forecast by 8%.
The company is strongly cash generative and its decision to stop dividend
payments and to rein in growth capex should enable it to pay down debt
relatively quickly: our forecasts demonstrate that it should be able to
fully redeem its US Private Placement and repay £50m of its bank debt by
the end of FY2010, leaving net debt/EBITDA at 2.6x.
Wetherspoon’s share price tends to be heavily momentum led and we would
expect a positive reaction to the stronger than expected trading in Q2.
Furthermore with a FCF yield of 16.5% and PER of 12.3x the rating is not
demanding in our opinion hence we move our recommendation to OUTPERFORM.
strategy fits well with the current consumer environment, is resulting in
increased market share and is being supported by effective cost control to
facilitate the discounting. Based on the 2.6% lfl growth in Q2 we are now
assuming +2% for FY09 and upgrading our EPS forecast by 8%.
The company is strongly cash generative and its decision to stop dividend
payments and to rein in growth capex should enable it to pay down debt
relatively quickly: our forecasts demonstrate that it should be able to
fully redeem its US Private Placement and repay £50m of its bank debt by
the end of FY2010, leaving net debt/EBITDA at 2.6x.
Wetherspoon’s share price tends to be heavily momentum led and we would
expect a positive reaction to the stronger than expected trading in Q2.
Furthermore with a FCF yield of 16.5% and PER of 12.3x the rating is not
demanding in our opinion hence we move our recommendation to OUTPERFORM.
BE:
It’s beginning to seem like nearly every high profile director in Britain has been at it.
NH:
Michael Spencer, for example.
BE:
Yup. The former Conservative Party chairman admitted yesterday to using
£300m of ICAP shares as security with HSBC.
£300m of ICAP shares as security with HSBC.
BE:
Which makes the £100m Ross pledged look like small beer.
NH:
Although we should make absolutely clear that, unlike Ross, there’s no suggestion that Spencer hadn’t told Icap.
BE:
Yup. Good point. Will keep the lawyers happy.
BE:
We’ve also had Brian Souter and Ann Gloag, the Jack and Meg White of
Scottish business, admitting to borrowing against £50m of Stagecoach stock.
Scottish business, admitting to borrowing against £50m of Stagecoach stock.
NH:
Adding their names to to a list that already Sir George Mathewson. Leslie Van de Walle, the Rexam CEO …
BE:
Adding their names to to a list that already Sir George Mathewson.
Leslie Van de Walle, the Rexam CEO …
Leslie Van de Walle, the Rexam CEO …
NH:
.up. And the disclosure deadline is Friday, so it’s probably safe to expect a few more.
NH:
And the disclosure deadline is Friday, so it’s probably safe to expect a few more.
NH:
Going back to Wetherspoon for a second … What was that about that Dukes of Hazzard reference?
BE:
According to Wikipedia, the JD of Wetherspoon comes from Jessie Duke
NH:
No
BE:
Although it’s been reported elsewhere that it refers to JD “Boss” Hogg.
NH:
that can’t be true
BE:
So if Mr Martin is reading, as I’m sure he does, then perhaps he could
clarify whether he’s a fan of denim hotpants or fat men in white suits.
clarify whether he’s a fan of denim hotpants or fat men in white suits.
NH:
this is fascinating
NH:
we need to know
NH:
is it Jessie or Boss Hogg?
BE:
It’s the burning issue of the day.
NH:
yeah, forget the banks, nationalisation and barclays
NH:
was it Boss Hogg
BE:
But perhaps we should move on.
NH:
quick update on the market
NH:
FTSE off 61 points at 4,29.6
NH:
Barclays under pressure
NH:
still
NH:
down 15.2p at 57.7p
NH:
GBK
NH:
$1.3758 vs dollar
NH:
sorry missed a figure out of the FTSE 100 level
NH:
4,029
NH:
will it hold 4,000 today?
12:05PM
NH:
as for lunch
NH:
no toxic tavern for me
BE:
Likewise
NH:
off to Joe Allan in Covent Garden
BE:
Not likewise
BE:
Vending machine for me again
NH:
Stopped out – one reason for the fall in Royal Dutch Shell
NH:
could be these numbers that the company is guiding lower
NH:
the story goes that the company has been pointing to consensus
NH:
and then reminind people of the impact of a stronger dollar
NH:
apparently that means forecasts are 6% too high
NH:
of course that is RAW
BE:
Trading update next week
BE:
Thursday I think
NH:
stock is weak down 64p at £15.91
NH:
and I think that is it
NH:
unfortunately not using Paul’s card
NH:
it would bounce
NH:
but I had better dash
NH:
need to get to Covent Garden
NH:
but before we go
NH:
some stuff on Anton Kreel from Millionaire trader
NH:
a bit of background on the man who retired at 29
BE:
So it turns out he was (briefly) at JP Morgan. Joined in 2006 as
vice-president of the European cash equities trading team. Responsibility
for the pharmaceutical and chemical sectors.
vice-president of the European cash equities trading team. Responsibility
for the pharmaceutical and chemical sectors.
BE:
Before that he spent two years at Lehman as an equities trader, and
before that was at Goldman Sachs.
before that was at Goldman Sachs.
BE:
For anyone who fancies poking him, here’s his Facebook
NH:
His facebook profile is very sparse.
NH:
Sex: Male
Birthday: Jan. 16, 1979
AIM: anton kreil
(Groups) Member of: Cyberduck, Anthony Mandler – the man who directed at least ONE of your FAVORITE videos, Conveyancer’s Unite, Council for Licenseed Conveyancers Group, BIKRAM YOGA SOHO, Oliver Diamonds.
Birthday: Jan. 16, 1979
AIM: anton kreil
(Groups) Member of: Cyberduck, Anthony Mandler – the man who directed at least ONE of your FAVORITE videos, Conveyancer’s Unite, Council for Licenseed Conveyancers Group, BIKRAM YOGA SOHO, Oliver Diamonds.
NH:
He has 624 friends and seems to be adding them quite rapidly
NH:
He keeps changing his profile pic to various shots of him looking ‘thoughtful’ or ‘stern’ on Million Dollar Traders.
NH:
There’s also a couple “mood shots” of him leaning against a lamp-post in the City and elswhere….
BE:
For anyone who wants to stalk him, he apparently lives in one of those peculiar flats over in Chad Thames. Tooley Street.
BE:
And his full CV is on LinkedIn
NH:
(Sagesse – you could be right, Rumour is RAW.)
BE:
Current project “Hablib.com”
BE:
Not launched yet. Just goes to a holding page for a “residential property website”
BE:
Anyway, that’s enough of that. Otherwise we’re going to look like obsessives.
NH:
Monkey – stop it
NH:
right, we are off
NH:
until the morrow
NH:
farewell
NH:
and thanks for all your comments
BE:
Bye