Some chains will be opening as early as 4am with “doorbuster” special offers and “early bird” promotions. But, as ever, it will be hard to assess the likely strength of the rest of the holiday shopping season from how busy the shops are on Black Friday – so called because it was once the day when retailers would see their accounts for the year turn positive. – FT
Actually, by curious coincidence, “Black Friday” is an allusion to “Black Tuesday” — the day of the infamous stock market crash. Traffic associated with the increase in Christmas shoppers resulted in crowds thronging the streets — resembling the chaos of the 1929 crash — and leading Philadelphia police to coin the term circa 1965, at least, according to Wikipedia. That’s something to remember today — when US retailers are predicted to post a decline in November sales despite aggressive slashing of prices and Black Friday deals.
What’s interesting here is the new dynamic between retailers and shoppers. It’s as if a deflationary spiral — where consumers put off purchases with the knowledge that lower prices are to come — is already beginning, despite the Fed’s attempts to combat it. For instance, from the WSJ:
A new online survey by Deloitte shows that shoppers are “playing chicken” with retailers and are trying to strategize the best times to go shopping so they can get the best deals. Of the 1,000 Americans surveyed from Nov. 21 to 23, 62% said they had already purchased gifts and had bought all or most of those items on sale. About 45% said they plan to shop later in the season in order to get better discounts, while 21% said they planned to go shopping after Dec. 25, the survey reports.
There’s also been a marked tendency to “trade down” to cheaper retailers — at least in the US (something that would also have relevance to the ongoing strategic battle between low-cost airline Ryanair and flag-carrier British Airways in the UK). From the WSJ again:
Analysts estimate that same-store sales, or sales in stores open a year or more, in about 25 of the largest U.S. stores (not including Wal-Mart Stores) will decline 6.6% in November versus last year, according to Thomson Reuters. At Wal-Mart, sales are expected to increase 2%.
As for the UK, London’s Oxford Street is open early today, with retailers combining the longer opening hours with instore promotions.
We’re not sure if BHS’s ‘Any hot drink for 99p’ will reel in the shoppers, but Ted Baker’s 20 – 30 per cent discounts and House of Fraser’s 25 per cent off are significant price cuts. Selfridges is also doing 20 per cent off with a voucher. For those of you not yet beset by luxury fatigue, enjoy your Black Friday shopping — but keep in mind even more deals may be around the corner in the post Christmas-sales.
Whoops. There’s that deflation conundrum again.
Related link:
Luxury fatigue – FT Alphaville
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