Yes, yes, we know – we’ve just declared attempting to find a method to the madness of market performances based on political metrics to be an exercise in futility.
But waiting for polls to close is about as exciting as watching paint dry, and we need something to do in the interim.
So via the permanently-connected Neil Hume, here are some highlights of report from Old Street Capital about the market effect of the presidential cycle:
- The year of the investiture seems to be the worst in the cycle.
- Election of a democrat is worst for the market than a Republican in the ST (1 day to 1 month) but much better over a 3 month period (Avg. gain of 4.33% versus 1.6% on the S&P 500).
And:
Article Series - US Elections 08
- First blood to Obama
- "We are not sure if an election result has ever mattered so little to the markets."
- Why you should ignore exit polls
- Market talking heads: election means nada, redux
- Intrade odds favour Obama (shock)
- Pink Picks, White House edition
- Obama, the markets and the perils of presidential data mining
- Further reading, White House edition
- Presidential data mining, redux
- Gideon Rachman doesn't give a twit
- Dirty dirty exit poll data, round one
- McCain gets Kentucky and South Carolina, Obama claims Vermont
- Obama vs McCain - how the networks see it
- 270, 538, swing states, electoral college - what does it all mean?
- Obama wins Ohio, White House in sight
- As Obama sweeps Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Mexico...
- Electoral vote tally - Obama 207, McCain 129
- Barack Obama wins Virginia, California - and the White House