Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:12 on 17 Sep 2008. Participants in this chat were: Paul Murphy (PM) Sam Jones (SJ) Bryce Elder (BE) Neil Hume (NH)
PM:
We are rushing around a bit this morning
PM:
Neil and I will be doing our regular stuff at 11
PM:
But i thought id just open this up for people who want to comment
PM:
Odd bit of news around today — like an emergency takeover of HBOS by Lloyds TSB
SJ:
HBOS all over the shop
SJ:
but big big selling trying to drive it lower
SJ:
will post the latest reuters graph on the site shortly
SJ:
And now the price as ROCKETED
SJ:
This stock just isn’t trading properly
BE:
Worth noting also that HBOS volume’s broken 191m already, versus 367m for yesterday (which was a record).
SJ:
Latest Reuters graph of this all is here – http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/09/17/16002/hbos-rollercoaster/
SJ:
If you can make out the little green lines below, you’ll see what Bryce means
SJ:
lots of big volume trades
SJ:
Also FYI, Neil has just put up a bit of analyst reaction to the BARC/LEH deal….
BE:
And, while on the subject of Lehman, would be interested to hear from anyone who knows any of these people:
SJ:
@ Cityboy – Sants was speaking at the FSA Management Conference this morning.
SJ:
bklysq – yes, all Russian exchanges suspended
SJ:
HBOS price on reuters:
SJ:
Now at 170 – right off the 190 it was at about ten minutes ago
SJ:
Big trade went through at about 10:40
NH:
hang on what’s going on
SJ:
Readers thing HBOS should be suspended
SJ:
HBOS now at 185 – ticking back up
BE:
Although has just come out of auction, for the umpteenth time.
NH:
forget the front page of the Mail this morning
NH:
“DAILY EXPRESS SPEAKS ITS MIND: DON’T LET THE SPIVS DESTROY BRITAIN”
SJ:
ah yes – that was brilliant
SJ:
Did you actually read it?
SJ:
MILLIONS of British families are facing the destruction of their livelihoods as the nation’s economy teeters on the brink of catastrophe, brought low by the greed and stupidity of spivs in high finance.
NH:
this is the funniest thing I have read in ages
SJ:
There is mounting anger in Middle Britain
NH:
and look at this from the Mail
NH:
you could not make it up
NH:
well, actually we could
NH:
but this was in the Mail
NH:
Spivs, sharks and why the champagne corks were popping on Meltdown Monday
NH:
On Sunday night, at Le Caprice restaurant in central London, a group of men in expensive suits – drinking even more expensive champagne – were sitting at a table in the corner.
Each had a BlackBerry hand-held computer.
‘They were looking at the screens with obsessive interest as if they were waiting for something huge to happen,’ said a member of staff.
And, of course, they were. News of the impending collapse of the world’s fourth biggest investment bank was filtering through from New York.
NH:
The fall of Lehman Brothers will eventually hit thousands of savers, pension investors, and home owners in Britain.
But not everyone was a loser, and some of the ‘winners’ were sitting around that table at Le Caprice.
The restaurant is in the heart of Mayfair, which itself is at the heart of the hedge-fund industry. The men with the BlackBerrys are part of this exclusive club.
Unlike almost everyone else, they wanted Lehmans to crash; hence, the febrile atmosphere around their table. By the time they had drunk their last bottle of bubbly they knew they were about to make a killing.
For hedge funds, and the people who control them, specialise is an activity called short-selling.
NH:
Shorting’, as it is known, means selling a share that you don’t actually own (a quirk in the trading system means this is perfectly legal) with a view to buying it back at a later date at what you hope will be a lower price. The investor’s profit is the difference in price.
In other words, if it goes down, you make money – the very inverse, both practically and morally of normal share trading. In the case of the behemoth of Lehman Brothers, the profits from ‘shorting’ raids in recent days has run into millions of pounds.
NH:
How do we know the diners at Le Caprice worked for hedge funds? Well, they were familiar to staff, and on Sunday night there was only one story: the imminent fall of Lehmans.
Some say those who make money in this way are performing a vital safety valve function. More, however, compare them to ‘financial vultures’.
Either way, they bring to mind Gordon Gecko, the fictional financier of the 1987 film Wall Street whose mantra of ‘Greed is Good’ captured the rapacious mood of the boom years of that decade.
NH:
Their activities were the talk of the City yesterday.
One message on a share-trading chatroom bulletin board read: ‘We are never going to be able to do without oil and gas, but we can do without hedge-fund managers… let’s do away with short-selling.’
The anonymous author added: ‘The City was mayhem [on Monday night after the collapse of Lehmans]. Never been so much champagne drunk.’
Now, of course, a lot of it was being sunk by Lehman employees who had just lost their jobs and their careers and were drowning their sorrows.
At Smollensky’s wine bar, just a short distance from the the bank’s Canary Wharf headquarters, former staff were throwing back £65 bottles of Veuve Cliquot and Moet with Sambuca shots. But there was anger as well as despair at the short-selling traders who were cashing in on Lehman’s miseries.
BE:
Recommended: http://www.bigdaddymerk.co.uk/mailwatchnew/
NH:
One said: ‘The only real winners are the hedge fund guys who have been short- selling Lehman and Merrill Lynch (another venerable bank which is now the subject of a cut-price takeover by the Bank of America). Some of them have made an awful lot of money.’
Another (now ‘ex’) trader in his 30s added: ‘Some of the hedge fund traders have been spreading false rumours that clients had stopped dealing with Lehmans to drive the price down.’
Now, of course, hedge fund traders were not responsible for the banking crisis, which could spark a cull of tens of thousands of jobs across the financial sector and drive Britain deep into recession.
Yet many ordinary people who live in the real world – whose pensions and savings will be adversely affected in the aftermath of Meltdown Monday – might find their behaviour hard to stomach.
SJ:
Personally I like the commenters on the Express piece
SJ:
such intelligent readers
SJ:
THANK YOU DAILY EXPRESS, YOU ARE SO RIGHT
SJ:
DEMOCRACY DON’T WORK.
SJ:
No wonder we are all getting shafted by these finance spivs, by Wall Street, Lehman and their ilk. Where on earth has the courage that Britain was known for gone to? Has it taken its last breath, last gasp on the trading floors of these monsters?
SJ:
The monsters of Mayfair
PM:
Daily Mail splash headline this morning: CRUNCH TIME AT THE HALIFAX
PM:
HBOS stock up 15p at 197
NH:
The Monsters of Mayfair – Brilliant
PM:
Where are we going to start Neil, Sam?
NH:
er, Fed saves AIG and world from financial meltdown
BE:
As noted above, HBOS has already been summarised quite brilliantly here: http://tinyurl.com/panicstations
NH:
(G Cox is obviously an Express reader)
NH:
let’s get back to HBOS
NH:
and try and summarise and make sense of what went on this morning
NH:
because we really did have a run on the bank this morning
PM:
a real time run on a bank
NH:
incredible stock move
NH:
it halved in value as everyone started to panic about how on earth the UK’s biggest mortgage lender was going to fund itself
NH:
this was really well summed up in a piece from Merrill Lynch
NH:
On funding, a few points are worth making. HBOS has a loan to deposit ratio of
177%, which compares to UK large cap peers on 90-142%. Clearly this makes it
the most exposed to wholesale funding markets, which are extremely stretched.
We have estimated that HBOS has £12.5bn of term funding maturing in the rest
of 2008.
NH:
Following yesterday’s downgrade by S&P to an A+ rating, we think the
term market is now effectively shut for HBOS at anything approaching economic
spreads. This pushes HBOS into replacing its term funding with shorter term
money. This has become expensive, as the overnight LIBOR rate of 6.79%
yesterday (versus 5.49% on Monday) demonstrates. Moreover, it can only be a
temporary solution for HBOS, because the bank cannot allow all its funding to
become bunched at an overnight maturities. We have already seen short term
funding (<1yr) move from 53% at the start of last year to 59% at end June this
year, and we suspect that this has shortened even further since then.
NH:
What is the endgame for the funding situation? We think that the increased
central bank activity heads off the risk of a Northern Rock type crisis. But we think
that longer term HBOS might have to think about aggressively reducing the
overall size of its loan book to ‘right size’ it for current market conditions. We
estimate that if HBOS were to reduce its mortgage book and its corporate loan
book by 10% each, the loan to deposit ratio would improve to 154%, and earning
estimates would be cut by ~20%. If funding markets remain so stressed, we
would expect HBOS to announce such a move, and based on the experience of
others who have said similar things (eg B&B), the market would not react
positively.
PM:
and then riding to the rescue
PM:
like a knight in shinning armour came the BBC
PM:
with news of merger talks with Lloyds
PM:
this was the original story
NH:
which has since been updated
PM:
Lloyds TSB is is in advanced merger talks with HBOS to create a giant UK super retail bank, the BBC has learned.
The deal, which would create a retail banking giant would end the uncertainty about the strength of HBOS following the calamitous run on its shares.
Under the deal, the valuation of HBOS shares would be closer to its closing price last week of 300 pence rather than its current level of around 100p.
News came as shares in the firm slumped as much as 56% on the London market.
HBOS’s shares had rallied in earlier trade, but the recovery quickly fizzled out.
Other UK banks also suffered from the loss of confidence in the sector after the crisis on Wall Street.
Royal Bank of Scotland fell 18%, Bradford & Bingley sank 11.7% and Lloyds TSB dropped 7%.
NH:
the stock then rallied big time
NH:
as everyone focused on the 300p takeout price
PM:
Where is the stock trading now????
NH:
now up 9.5p at 194.3p
NH:
no one knows if this 300p price is right
PM:
So LLoyds to take over HBOS for two or three quid
NH:
but we suspect not and the Beeb is now saying it is closer to 200p
NH:
this is a rescue deal
NH:
no doubt brokered by the FSA, the BoE and the Treasury
NH:
and make no mistake HBOS was in big, big trouble this morning
NH:
: there was a run on the bank
NH:
and with the stock down 50% who would have continued lending money to them??
NH:
how would they have rolled money over in the wholesale market
NH:
and there would have been people queuing at the bank to take their money out
NH:
and don’t worry about the competition implications because we are going to wave all of them
NH:
why are they going to offer 300p
PM:
can’t believe there has not been a statement
PM:
what sort of market is this
PM:
news gets announced by the BBC

PM:
and the two companies in question can’t come up with a statement
NH:
So are there any sticking points. Well, maybe I’ve slightly over-egged the price that Lloyds TSB will pay for HBOS. Perhaps it will be nearer £2 than £3
NH:
that’s what Pesto just said on the box
NH:
WILL ONE OF THE COMPANIES PLEASE PUT A HOLDING STATEMENT OUT CONFIRMING THIS DEAL
NH:
AND ALSO COMMENT ON THE PRICE
PM:
Its offical – market abuse
PM:
Do we have any analyst comment yet
NH:
not. everyone too stunned
NH:
they don’t know what to say
NH:
I have some trading floor comment though
NH:
HBOS big in context of Lloyds with assets of 681bn vs 367bn for Lloy
NH:
competition concersn, givent that UK mortgage share would 28%, 25-30% for current a/cs and 30-35% uk retail deposits
likely that govt would want it to happen though
NH:
but issues for an enlarged group would still remain (impairments, facing economic issues), just diluted version of hbos
NH:
I guess that point here
NH:
they are creating just an even bigger version of HBOS
NH:
what really needed to happen was for HBSC to take HBOS
NH:
and not just because the names are similar
NH:
it’s the only UK company with the balance sheet to do it
NH:
but I get they decided against it
NH:
trying to get some comment from somebody involved in all of this
NH:
here’s a bit more comment
PM:
All mobiles of FSA, HBOS etc turned off
NH:
HBOS: We think it would be difficult for a
single buyer to digest the business as a whole without Bank of
England help. (ii) In order to maximise shareholder returns for
HBOS we believe a break-up is a more attractive option. (iii) Last
but not least we would remind the reader that there are significant
capital shortages at the other UK banks, with the exception of
HSBC.
NH:
G Cox wants to move on – anyone agree??
PM:
the market has been brought into disrepute,
PM:
How can they possibly do anyone for say, poor communication, in future
BE:
Care to see the reaction from the mighty Goldman?
NH:
pls Bryce post the Goldman note
BE:
This went out to clients this morning ….
BE:
Changes to the UK Relative Value List
We have removed HBOS from the Conviction Buy List and are therefore removing it from the UK Relative Value List as an “Outperform” stock. We are also removing Lloyds TSB (rated Sell) from the Underperform side of the List as a counterbalance.
NH:
right, are they advising???
NH:
time for some share price updates
Lloyds TSB Group (LLOY:LSE): Last: 308.00, up 28.25 (+10.10%), High: 317.50, Low: 253.00, Volume: 96.25m
NH:
biggest rise in the FTSE 100 at the moment
Barclays (BARC:LSE): Last: 338.00, up 30 (+9.74%), High: 346.25, Low: 283.00, Volume: 126.49m
NH:
second biggest riser in the FTSE 100 – market likes the Lehman deal
HBOS (HBOS:LSE): Last: 196.70, up 14.7 (+8.08%), High: 214.00, Low: 88.00, Volume: 236.72m
PM:
That guy just will not talk
PM:
it is obviously bedlam
PM:
at treasury/fsa/hbos/lloyds/bank of england
NH:
well, we don’t know what else to say
PM:
I just dont know waht to say
NH:
today’s events have made a mockery of pretty much everything
PM:
yeah – -what happened to UK competition policy
NH:
ah, don’t worry about that.
PM:
Remember the 25% rule?????????
PM:
remember how Lloyds couldnt take over Abbey
PM:
And how about when the Crunch spreads to retail proper
NH:
yup, let Tesco buy everything
NH:
at least they do these bailouts properly in the US
NH:
that said, Gasparino seemed to have the inside track on the great AIG bailout last night
NH:
and now, the US govt is the world’s leading underwritter of CDS’s
NH:
and it owns a massive insurance company
NH:
and the housing market
NH:
The US has gone commie
NH:
actually Stacy sent over an interesting note on the AIG bailout and what it means for the CDS market and defaults
NH:
This from BNP this morning:
NH:
The first impression is that Wednesday’s actions will not lead to a credit event for the CDS, but the conditions attached to the loan will have to be looked at carefully before a definite answer can be given. If there were to be a credit event at the holding company level (AIG Inc.), this would likely propagate to the subsidiaries that have a guarantee from AIG Inc. One of these subsidiaries is AIGFP, the entity that has written $441bn of protection on fixed-income instruments.
NH:
Why did the government bail out AIG, but not Lehman? A pattern seems to start emerging here, where brokers are allowed to fail but companies of public interest are not. The “public interest“ argument clearly applies to the GSEs, but several politicians had also expressed concerns for what would happen to saving and life insurance policies if AIG went under. Additionally, the authority for the Fed to extend loans to individuals and corporations (a legacy of the Great Depression) requires two conditions to be verified: (1) failure to find market solutions, which applies to LEH as well as AIG; and (2) that the borrower is likely to remain solvent and repay the loan, a condition that probably applies to AIG, but critically not to LEH.
PM:
Not be a credit event?
PM:
But the USSRA is taking control — in an ownership sense
NH:
(Statement watch – nothing from Llloyds or HBOS still)
PM:
We need to pause for breath
PM:
Let’s put some notes up on AIG
NH:
yup that will help us catch our breath
NH:
AIG Fallout Should Lead To More Favorable Pricing
NH:
FACTORS IN PLACE FOR IMPROVED PRICING. While it is still early we see
positive signs for pricing emerging including: (1) Turmoil and liquidity crisis at
AIG, the market leader; (2) Catastrophe losses reducing capital (Hurricanes Ike and
Gustav could generate over $20 billion of losses in Q3, while losses in the first half
of $9.4 billion already exceeded $6.5 billion in 2007); and (3) Fear returning to the
market.
NH:
AIG IS THE MARKET LEADER IN NEARLY EVERY LINE IT WRITES. AIG
wrote $58.8 billion (or $54.8 billion excluding TRH) of P&C gross premiums in
2007. Its general insurance business breakdown by segment is as follows:
Domestic Brokerage Group, 51.2%; Foreign General, 27.7%, Personal Lines,
10.2%; Transatlantic, 8.4%; and Mortgage Guaranty, 2.4%. Within the Domestic
Brokerage Group the largest lines are workers compensation, 16.5%; general/auto
liability, 15.8%; property, 14.1%; management/professional liability, 11.2%;
commercial umbrella/excess, 9.7%; programs, 4.7%; and A&H, 4.2%.
NH:
hang on here’s a novelty
NH:
a Lehman Bros note dated Sept 17
NH:
Jay Gelb obviously still in the office
NH:
AIG shareholders’ stake in the company is
expected to be heavily diluted as a result of an
anticipated deal with the Federal Reserve to loan
$85 billion to AIG in turn for an 80% stake in the
company. The alternative for AIG appears to be
filing for bankruptcy. The Fed anticipates selling
off portions of AIG, which could lead to
transformational deals for the industry in our view.
NH:
Changing our rating on AIG shares to 0-Not Rated
from 2-EW to reflect anticipated value of AIG
shares and very slim possibility in our view of a
private market solution to AIG’s capital needs.
This entry was posted by Paul Murphy on Wednesday, September 17th, 2008 at 11:01 and is filed under Uncategorised.
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