Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:02 on 10 Sep 2008. Participants in this chat were: Paul Murphy (PM) Neil Hume (NH)
PM:
Welcome to Markets Live, FT Alphaville’s daily markets discussion.
NH:
Morning all
NH:
we are having some tech problems this morning
NH:
nothing appearing on the screen
PM:
test
NH:
we are experiencing connectivity problems – like the LSE
NH:
NH:
can’t see anything I am writting
PM:
Battle on
PM:
Two announcements to make this morning.
PM:
1. This session will be shorter than usual – because we need time to prepare for a SPECIAL session of ML at 1pm today.
NH:
Yep, we’re going to cover the Lehmann conference call.
NH:
Should be fun or ugly.
PM:
Judging by their newsflow it will be utterly chaotic.
PM:
Anyway, the Leh figs are out at 12.30 and then the conference call at 1pm – for which we have obtained a password.
PM:
But we do need a bit of a break between sessions – so this ML will end early.
PM:
2. Second announcement is serious, serious.
PM:
DO NOTE FOLLOW THIS SESSION IF YOU ARE AN IDIOT.
PM:
TURN OFF NOW.
NH:
That little cross in the top right hand corner of your browser window – click it.
NH:
You referring to the M&S idiocy?
PM:
Iam
PM:
Basically one of the services we offer here is tapping into the informal, unchecked, untested rumours that grease the London market.
PM:
We have a label for it: raw
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
PM:
With a piece of RAW we expect readers to make their own enquiries – employ their brains – and then take a considered view on whether the story has any weight.
NH:
If you deal blind on ML raw you will loose ALL your money, really quickly.
PM:
The backstory here is that we mentioned the rumour going round yesterday that Marks and Spencer had supposedly cancelled an investor meeting in Scotland and that this had fuelled some spec that a trading statement was on the way.
PM:
We made it very clear that it was just wild gossip, I believe.
NH:
But suddenly, we had people charging round the market saying “Alphaville says dump M&S at any price!!!!!!!”
PM:
Which we didn’t.
NH:
Anyway, that ended up with a clarification on the ML transcript from yesterday – basically just says there were not meetings planned and the story was rubbish.
PM:
Why the lecture? You may ask.
NH:
Well, we don’t want to “Do a Bloomberg”
PM:
Bascially, investors are so jittery at the moment – and the tech allows “news” to flow so quickly – that errors by news organisations are destroying some stocks – albeit momentarily.
PM:
United Airlines fell by about three quarters the other day because someone had published a six year old story on it going into bankruptcy.
PM:
WHICH IT HASN’T UAL HAS NOT GONE IN TO BANKRUPTCY. FT ALPHVILLE IS NOT SAYING SELL THE STOCK.
PM:
Anyway, I will shut up.
NH:
Reader beware – that should cover it, no?
PM:
Well, think it needs to be Readers beware – idiots log off
PM:
NH:
So what does this mean in practice?
NH:
Does it mean I shouldn’t tell people why Debenhams has taken a bath
PM:
An excellent case in point.
PM:
FACT: Debs stock is down 3p at 44.5p having touched 43p at one stage.
NH:
RAW: Whispers about the company breaching its banking covenants have been doing the rounds this morning – mainly by text msg. They seem to be pegged on a sudden 20% sale at Debs. Probably rubbish – lots of retailers have got sales on cos it is a tough tough market. But then Debs does have a lot of debt..
PM:
FACT: Those whispers have caused the share price to fall.
PM:
We have reported what has happened and why – we have not told you to go screaming to the nearest stockbroker with an order to dump as many Debs as you can manage.
NH:
Readers beware – idiots log off
NH:
NH:
Can I mention one inconvenient thing about M&S, Murph?
PM:
What’s that?
NH:
Well, if you had taken our non-advice to sell M&S yesterday, you’d be feeling pretty happy this morning.
PM:
NH:
The stock is off 5%
NH:
down 12p at 246p
NH:
are we allowed to tell people why??
PM:
Yes, go on
NH:
Well, aside the market generally tanking and all the consumer meltdown stuff, Bernstein have come out with some very bearish noises this morning on UK retailers.
PM:
Everyone likes a good, hard core Bernstein note. Do share.
NH:
Three key factors influence investment in UK General Retailers:
NH:
Macro Sentiment: General retailers tend to be early cyclical and discount a recovery ahead of it actually materializing. A change for the positive in macro sentiment would bring a re-rating of the whole general retail sector;
NH:
_ LFL Growth: LFL growth has historically been the key driver of general retailers’ relative share price performance. The sector provides one of the highest share price performance variances, as relative share price performance tends to be a function of company specific LFL growth. Companies outperforming peers in LFL growth are rewarded with materially better price performance;
NH:
Structural Attractiveness: Major differences in format maturity, threat of new entrants and recovery potential point to highly differing strategic strength of the companies in our coverage, and hence opportunities for medium term investment. Materially different levels of real estate EV support also indicate wildly different levels of take-over support.
NH:
Macro sentiment will probably continue to keep the sector range bound. The good news from oil and commodity prices coming off their recent peaks is likely to be balanced by continuing concerns on theeffect of the credit crunch on consumer spending, the health of financial services institutions and the downward trajectory in UK house prices. We expect that, in due course, a recovering financial and real estate situation in the USA, coupled with the BoE cutting interest rates in the UK, could provide triggers for a more pronounced re-rating of the UK general retail sector. Current valuations already reflect a materially negative macro outlook.
NH:
Short-term, the outlook for 2H08E LFL remains weak. Next will have the easiest comparables in 2H08E (2H 2 year LFL: -6.4%), with Marks & Spencer at the opposite extreme (2H 2 year LFL: +2.6%). But both CBI and TNS data continue to indicate very subdued general retail demand. The UK apparel market seemingly had a blip in July, more a sign of higher than average end-of-season sales, than a sign of recovery. Highly negative gross mortgage lending growth figures suggest caution on the evolution of home improvement demand, as we have found that gross mortgage lending acts as a leading indicator of DIY expenditure.
PM:
bickie
Reminder to readers – if you arrived late and want to stop the dialogue ‘jumping’ as you catch up, hit the ‘pause auto-scrolling’ tab at the bottom right hand corner
NH:
There is this:
NH:
Marks & Spencer and Next face a structural challenge in the UK market. The development of value retailing – with discounters and supermarkets now having c.20% of the UK A&F market, and growing – locks them in a middle-of-the-road position, with neither the brand differentiation to support a premium price, nor the cost advantage to be a price leader:
NH:
_ We see M&S as having more ammunition to face the challenge, thanks to: higher SG&A efficiency opportunity, further COGS efficiency from direct sourcing, re-creation of novelty effect through new product introductions in its stores (e.g. fragrances and cosmetics), and material support from its real estate portfolio;
NH:
_ Next, conversely, may produce better profit short-term, as it is managing the business with great attention to operating costs and margins. Its medium-term success, though, is predicated on its ability to credibly reposition the brand upwards, while finding new “growth engines”, as new retail space and directory growth fade.
PM:
NH:
right, to some of the very funny comments below
NH:
moron’s are welcome
NH:
idiots are not
NH:
we like Seoul Brothers
PM:
NH:
Pimco for Lehman, another good shout
PM:
PM:
right we must turn to RAB Capital
NH:
or RIP Capital as some people have rather uncharitably dubbed the company this morning
PM:
and this morning’s news that its biggest fund – Special Situations (that’s the one run by Philip Richards of Northern Crock fame) – has suffered a major blow out in August
Readers may also know this former bank as Northern Rock.
PM:
down a sickening 22%
PM:
leaving the fund down almost 50% on the year
PM:
and group AUM at $4.7bn, down from $5.4bn a month earlier
NH:
wow
NH:
seems like RIP Capital has developed its own Cern type black hole
NH:
has it suffered some collateral damage from the demise of the big Osparie fund?
NH:
RIP SS has lots of holdings in second line mining stocks and lots of investments in unquoted mining companies
NH:
how do you value those at the moment, with any commodity related tanking across the globe
NH:
it also paid £100m for a stake in A1 Grand Prix, which I am being told has been written down to zero
PM:
Hmm
PM:
now that would all be bad enough
PM:
but there is some bad news for investors in the fund, which include the Mittal family and some other super high net worth individuals
PM:
Mr Richards wont let them go
PM:
Tracy did a post on it earlier
NH:
that’s right
NH:
he wants to keep then locked in this fund for three years
NH:
and if he does not get his way
NH:
he will liquidate the fund
NH:
here are the details
NH:
RAB Capital announces a proposal to extend the lock-in period for investors in its Special Situations strategy (representing 20% of group AUM) to three years in return for a 50% reduction in management fees and a 25% reduction in any performance fees earned.
NH:
So from 2 and 20, RAB SS is going to 1 and 15
NH:
now, it’s hard to imagine investors are going to be jumping for joy after the price cut
NH:
after this fund has lost 22% in a month
NH:
and they still want a 1% management charge
NH:
nonetheless, RAB claim they have had good indications of support from investors, but in the event of these new proposals not being agreed by 29 September, the strategy will be liquidated.
NH:
still, this is going to be a hard sell
NH:
and complicating matters is the fact that a number of investors are major shareholders in RAB
NH:
of the course the bigger question is whether the may be forced to propose similar fee cuts elsewhere to prevent big redemptions
PM:
What’s the stock doing on the back of this??
NH:
RIP Capital are off just 0.25p at 29p
NH:
so rumours of its demise have been exaggerated so we will have to call it RAB Capital once more
NH:
but RIP SS
NH:
now that’s in much more of a mess
NH:
down 9p at 46p
NH:
a drop of 15%
PM:
thanks for that
NH:
and one more thing
NH:
this latest shakeout in the market is really sorting the wheat from the chaff in the hedge fund world
NH:
: we are getting to see who are actually hedge funds – ie those who offset their positions
NH:
and who are just geared punting fund
NH:
massive bull market operators
NH:
that said
NH:
RAB have always said they were long biased fund
NH:
and given the poor performance this year
NH:
what option did they have but to lock people up?
NH:
what’s the alternative?
NH:
a fire sale of very illiquid assets to meet redemptions
NH:
what this is, is a real mess
NH:
massive blow to RAB’s reputation
PM:
hmmm
PM:
PM:
let’s move
PM:
to another victim of the credit crunch
NH:
ah, you must mean the CEO of Old Mutual
NH:
he has been well and truly crunched this morning
NH:
kicked out without a chance to say good bye
NH:
could even have been the black bin liner treatment
NH:
have a look at this statement
NH:
New Chief Executive Appointed
NH:
Old Mutual plc today announces that Jim Sutcliffe, Chief Executive, has decided to step down with immediate effect. The Board has accepted his resignation.
NH:
Julian Roberts has been appointed as the new Chief Executive. Julian has been Chief Executive of Skandia since February 2006 and before that Group Finance Director of Old Mutual plc.
NH:
Chris Collins, Chairman of Old Mutual plc, said: “On behalf of the Board, I would like to express our thanks for the great contribution Jim has made to the Group over the past eight years. We wish him well for the future. We are fortunate in having an executive of the calibre of Julian, who is familiar with both the industry and the Company. This broad experience means he is very well qualified for the job.”
Chris Collins, Chairman of Old Mutual plc, said: “On behalf of the Board, I would like to express our thanks for the great contribution Jim has made to the Group over the past eight years. We wish him well for the future. We are fortunate in having an executive of the calibre of Julian, who is familiar with both the industry and the Company. This broad experience means he is very well qualified for the job.”
NH:
Julian Roberts said: “Old Mutual is a great company with fantastic potential but also a number of challenges, which I look forward to tackling.”
PM:
Not much of expression of thanks for Sutcliffe — eight years
PM:
Bascially led the group to its current position — listed in London etc
PM:
Run thru what has gone wrong there
NH:
well, in part it is down to Fred and Fran
NH:
Old Mut’s US division
NH:
owns some prefs
NH:
and has been forced to take a write down
NH:
Separately, the announcement on 7 September 2008 that the US Government has placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in conservatorship has resulted in a sharp fall in the market value of the preferred stock of these companies. This has led to a write down of around $135 million in the value of the preferred stock in these companies held by the Old Mutual US Life business. Under the Old Mutual group accounting policy, this write down will be taken through adjusted operating profits over five years
PM:
oh dear
NH:
but that’s not all
NH:
there’s another write down
NH:
this is one is bit more complex
NH:
but it is going to cost $155m
NH:
At the interims in August 2008, Old Mutual plc (*Old Mutual*) announced a strengthening of reserves in its US Life business to reflect the impact of volatile equity markets on variable annuity product guarantees.
NH:
Continuing market volatility and a significant strengthening of the US dollar have led to a further increase in the costs associated with the guaranteed benefits on these variable annuity contracts. Old Mutual has therefore recognised additional guarantee reserves of $155 million. Under current group accounting policy, $93 million of this will be taken through adjusted operating profits reflecting the ineffective portion of the hedge and the remaining $62 million will be recognised in adjusted operating profits over five years.
PM:
oh dear dear
NH:
indeed
NH:
Old Mut really living up to its name this morning
PM:
woof
Old Mutual (OML:LSE): Last: 97.70, down 3.2 (-3.17%), High: 99.30, Low: 92.80, Volume: 18.41m
PM:
PM:
Neil is on the phone
PM:
I can report that reuters are reporting a Debs spokesman as denying any breach of banking covenants
PM:
What is happening is that the rumour flow — and jittery investors – are forcing companies into statements
PM:
In the recent past we would have just got a “no comment” — cos of the regulations
PM:
Now felts and others are just trying to stamp on chatter
NH:
am off now
NH:
nothing interesting
NH:
shall we have a look at the wider market quickly?
NH:
PM:
FTSE 100 down 42.7 at 5372
PM:
Looks pretty well across the board falls
NH:
but everything seems to be on hold ahead of the Lehman numbers
NH:
which are due at 12.30pm
NH:
and when hopefully, we always get news on fund raising, disposals etc.
PM:
NH:
mutant pub companies are among the biggest fallers this morning
NH:
in fact Enterprise Inns is the biggest loser in the FTSE 100
NH:
stock off 20.75p at 244.25p
NH:
that’s fall of nearly 8%
PM:
jeepers
NH:
and I don’t think it has anything to do with the fact that the company is expected to lose its place in the FTSE 100, when the results of the latest reshuffle are announced later today
NH:
traders are telling me that Morgan Stanley has done the damage
NH:
it has turned “more cautious” on the mutant pubs co’s following a “reassessment of risks”.
PM:
plenty of euphemisms in there
NH:
that’s because MS is broker to Punch Taverns
PM:
So what have they done?
NH:
analyst Jamie Rollo has downgraded Enterprise Inns to Underweight (target cut 50% to 320p — 12% implied upside) and reduce our target on Punch Taverns (Equal-weight) by 30% to 450p (58% upside).
NH:
and is saying that he prefers the human (or managed) pubs co’s like Mitchells & Butlers, which is now his top pick in the sector
NH:
We continue to recommend investors avoid leased/tenanted pubcos as trading remains poor, the leased pub business model is coming under pressure, balance sheet risk is growing (e.g. Punch likely to breach cash trap test in 2009), and the companies need to focus on paying down debt.
NH:
We now value pubcos using 75% of our base case and 25% of our bear case
and expect shares to remain very volatile given equity is 70-85% of EV.
and expect shares to remain very volatile given equity is 70-85% of EV.
PM:
any more?
NH:
yup
NH:
: Leased pub business model being sorely tested. There are indications that some pubs are over-rented, that the beer tie is exacerbating volume declines, the upcoming BEC enquiry could affect AWP income, and balance sheets are stretched. We cut estimates again.
NH:
Debt structure has some flexibility. ETI has only 8% headroom on its bank debt EBITDA covenant on our new 2009 forecasts, and it needs to refinance this loan in 2011. However, by adjusting the procurement fee in the Unique securitised debt it could do a tap issue and use the proceeds to reduce bank debt, boosting headroom to 10-15%.
NH:
While others have done taps, it may not be as easy for ETI, as Unique would be below its cash trap level today if it did not have its temporary principal holiday, and a tap issue would only delay this problem.
In addition, even after using all the flexibility at its disposal, a 10% EBITDA drop and/or 20% asset value drop are not impossible, and our new bear case scenario implies ETI gets very close to its covenants.
NH:
REIT likely to be postponed. We think Enterprise needs to focus on paying down debt. Committing to a higher dividend, particularly when the outlook is so uncertain, arguably sends the wrong signal. If the Board decides to shelve the REIT, due to weak trading and/or the need for balance sheet repair, investors may question why Enterprise is trading on twice the P/E multiple of Punch, which suffers similar (albeit greater) concerns.
NH:
We find it hard to see the shares performing, and downgrade to Underweight, which is a rating relative to the wider Leisure sector.
PM:
hmmmm — i think there are a lot of things to look at in there
PM:
When you see words like “cash trap” — usually worth taking a deeper look
PM:
Sam did a post on that related to Punch last week — worth a read
PM:
What about Punch — the ultimate mutant company
NH:
thought you would want to see that
NH:
and here it is
NH:
Cash Trapped
NH:
Our new bear case implies Punch gets
very close to its covenants, and our new price target assumes 25% probability of this.
very close to its covenants, and our new price target assumes 25% probability of this.
It appears almost certain that Punch will now breach at least one of its cash trap tests in F2009.
NH:
Unable to access cash from its securitisations, it will find it difficult to redeem its £295mn convertible bond due Dec-2010, even with its dividend cut.
We estimate a probable shortfall of £30-50mn, although this should be manageable when set against the £4.8bn of net debt. To breach actual covenants would need a 15% EBITDA drop in its leased pubs, implying rents rebased by 10% and beer volumes drop a further 20%, both extreme, though not impossible
scenarios.
NH:
Share price volatility to remain high. With investor focus on balance sheets intensifying, clarity on these issues could take some time, and valuation arguments are not working.
The equity is under 15% of enterprise value, and putting a value on such a slim piece of equity is difficult.
NH:
If the shares return to their trough EV/EBITDA of 8.0x, they could drop another 80%.
But if trading stabilizes, there is significant value for long-term investors. At some point, the shares will look very interesting, given the P/E of 4x. This is a record 50% discount to Enterprise Inns, so clearly a lot of concern is already priced in. If financial conditions improve, or indeed if pub trading stabilizes, Punch shares could rally very hard in a very short period.
But if trading stabilizes, there is significant value for long-term investors. At some point, the shares will look very interesting, given the P/E of 4x. This is a record 50% discount to Enterprise Inns, so clearly a lot of concern is already priced in. If financial conditions improve, or indeed if pub trading stabilizes, Punch shares could rally very hard in a very short period.
PM:
PM:
PM:
Thanks for that gag Hedgehog
PM:
Before we go for a rest — ahead of Lehman — got any RAW neil
NH:
yes, although THE USUAL CAVEATS APPLY READERS
NH:
ITV
PM:
NH:
now, the broadcaster is almost certainly heading out of the FTSE 100 tonight
NH:
yet
NH:
unlike Enterprise inns
NH:
its shares are higher
NH:
quite a bit higher
NH:
up 1.8p at 47p
NH:
a gain of 4.1%
NH:
which makes them the top performer in the FTSe 100
NH:
and that’s down to bid rumours
NH:
apparently the boss of the Disney is in town
NH:
and he was asked whether he would be interested in buying ITV
NH:
apparently he declined to comment
NH:
now that could be because he was treating the question with the contempt it deserved
NH:
but then again
PM:
Well, I know why the Disney guy was in town — Pixar wont the movie awards last night
PM:
Got some special award
PM:
it was on the box
PM:
Not over here to buy ITV
NH:
sorry missed that, was stuck in the office till late
NH:
anyway
NH:
rumours have been swirling round ITV all week
NH:
there has been talk that someone was about to make an offer for the BSkyB stake
NH:
which stands at 17%
NH:
actually I have a good note on these rumours
NH:
from Liberum
NH:
Significant Potential Upside As The Corporate Angle
Gathers Pace
Gathers Pace
NH:
Over the past week, there have been a number of individual developments that
suggest that we may be moving closer to seeing corporate activity in ITV.
These include:
suggest that we may be moving closer to seeing corporate activity in ITV.
These include:
NH:
Comments by a Mediaset board member last week that the company was
investigating a number of “dossiers” including ITV. This follows on from earlier
comments from the company that ITV was potentially of interest
investigating a number of “dossiers” including ITV. This follows on from earlier
comments from the company that ITV was potentially of interest
NH:
The appointment by Goldman Sachs Private Equity of ex-ITV CEO Charles Allen
as a senior advisor. Charles Allen was CEO back in 2006 when a consortium
headed by Greg Dyke – which included Goldman Sachs – launched an
unsuccessful bid for ITV. In addition, Mr Allen has been appointed to the board of
Endemol, which (a) has expressed particular interest in the production assets of
ITV and (b) has Mediaset has a shareholder;
The appointment by Goldman Sachs Private Equity of ex-ITV CEO Charles Allen
as a senior advisor. Charles Allen was CEO back in 2006 when a consortium
headed by Greg Dyke – which included Goldman Sachs – launched an
unsuccessful bid for ITV. In addition, Mr Allen has been appointed to the board of
Endemol, which (a) has expressed particular interest in the production assets of
ITV and (b) has Mediaset has a shareholder;
NH:
The appointment by ITV of Ian Griffiths as the new Group FD. Griffiths is the ex-
FD of EMAP and helped to negotiate the sale of EMAP’s pension schemes to
Paternoster back in November 2007. At the time, EMAP was the largest FTSE
company to sell on its scheme and it obviously helped to facilitate the break-up of
EMAP.
FD of EMAP and helped to negotiate the sale of EMAP’s pension schemes to
Paternoster back in November 2007. At the time, EMAP was the largest FTSE
company to sell on its scheme and it obviously helped to facilitate the break-up of
EMAP.
NH:
Taken individually, these points would be interesting data points. Taken collectively,
they suggest there upside risk to ITV being taken over. Point 2 is particularly
relevant: Charles Allen has obvious inside knowledge of ITV. The catalyst for any
M&A could be the sale of the BSkyB stake (down from 17.9% to below 7.5%): the
speculation is that the Competition Appeal Tribunal will report its findings this week – if, as expected, the CAT dismisses Sky’s complaint, then Sky will be forced to sell
down its stake by an (unpublicised) date, which we think will be sooner rather than
later. In terms of a valuation, our sum of the parts suggests an 80p valuation
for ITV (please ask if you wish a copy of this).
they suggest there upside risk to ITV being taken over. Point 2 is particularly
relevant: Charles Allen has obvious inside knowledge of ITV. The catalyst for any
M&A could be the sale of the BSkyB stake (down from 17.9% to below 7.5%): the
speculation is that the Competition Appeal Tribunal will report its findings this week – if, as expected, the CAT dismisses Sky’s complaint, then Sky will be forced to sell
down its stake by an (unpublicised) date, which we think will be sooner rather than
later. In terms of a valuation, our sum of the parts suggests an 80p valuation
for ITV (please ask if you wish a copy of this).
NH:
On likely buyers, the two most obvious are Mediaset and RTL: both have a track
record of seeking cross-border acquisitions and both have significant links to content
arms (RTL owns FremantleMedia, which is a big ex-US international producer of
content, while Mediaset has a shareholder in production company Endemol). In
terms of financing, Mediaset’s balance sheet is relatively under-levered (c. 1x net
debt / adjusted EBITDA) while RTL’s parent company, Bertelsmann, has been
selling businesses to reduce debt and – most interestingly – has shelved a plan to
buy in the minorities at RTL and is now considering selling down its stake from 90%
to 75%. While RTL owns Channel 5 (which it would need to dispose of to buy ITV),
one possible option it may explore is whether it could swap the asset for the Sky
stake.
record of seeking cross-border acquisitions and both have significant links to content
arms (RTL owns FremantleMedia, which is a big ex-US international producer of
content, while Mediaset has a shareholder in production company Endemol). In
terms of financing, Mediaset’s balance sheet is relatively under-levered (c. 1x net
debt / adjusted EBITDA) while RTL’s parent company, Bertelsmann, has been
selling businesses to reduce debt and – most interestingly – has shelved a plan to
buy in the minorities at RTL and is now considering selling down its stake from 90%
to 75%. While RTL owns Channel 5 (which it would need to dispose of to buy ITV),
one possible option it may explore is whether it could swap the asset for the Sky
stake.
NH:
As a reminder why we think why a bid for ITV may occur sooner rather than later, we
would point to the following:
would point to the following:
NH:
The odds are that the Conservatives are likely to favour a more relaxed
regulatory regime if they are elected (the general election has to be held by May
2010 and the Conservatives are by far the current favourites to win). While an
election is two years away, potential acquirers are likely to want to make their
move before the share price starts to reflect the likelihood of a Conservative
victory and accompanying de-regulation
regulatory regime if they are elected (the general election has to be held by May
2010 and the Conservatives are by far the current favourites to win). While an
election is two years away, potential acquirers are likely to want to make their
move before the share price starts to reflect the likelihood of a Conservative
victory and accompanying de-regulation
NH:
The recent 1H results have shifted the argument in favouring of de-regulation of
ITV. ITV believes there could be £70m+ of PSB savings to come plus an
unknown amount if the Contract Rights Renewal (CRR) mechanism is abolished.
ITV. ITV believes there could be £70m+ of PSB savings to come plus an
unknown amount if the Contract Rights Renewal (CRR) mechanism is abolished.
NH:
ITV still has a number of attractive characteristics such as:
NH:
it remains by far the largest commercial broadcaster in the UK;