Comment and analysis from Thursday’s FT:
The Big Freeze (IV): Lawrence Summers on how to build a US recovery
There is much scope in the current climate for fiscal measures to boost demand, while for the financial sector capital, not liquidity, is the priority, writes Summers, university professor at Harvard and a managing director of DE Shaw & Co. Read the previous three parts of the series here.
Insight: Mohamed El-Erian: Survival of the financial fittest
Given the excitement of the past few months, one can be forgiven for thinking of the US banking system as a homogenous, giant mess, says El-Erian, co-chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pimco, and author of ‘When Markets Collide”. For most banks, the outcome is a slimmer operational model that commands lower expected returns on equity. Indeed, the question is not whether this will materialise over the next year. It will. The question is how quickly; and the answer is a function of housing prices
The Short View: Emerging market carry trade
El superpeso is back, says John Authers. For the first time since 2002, a dollar buys less than 10 Mexican pesos. The last time it was this strong, earning the superpeso nickname, it caused alarm for exporters, who thought it wildly overvalued. But once inflation in the two countries is taken into account, it is more overvalued now, even compared with an inflated 2002 base. Prices have risen more in Mexico. To maintain purchasing power parity, the dollar should have risen by 18.7 per cent since 2002.
Lex: China’s sovereign buyers
Just who is China Inc? The buyer feared by governments around the world – and revered by cash-strapped investment banks – comes in several guises, including state-controlled companies and a clutch of sovereign entities. Far from being part of a carefully choreographed strategy, though, rival sovereign buyers are often jostling for a piece of the action.
Lombard: The City’s independent brokers face the endgame
The UK’s home-grown merchant banking sector was hoovered up by overseas investment banking groups in the 1990s in the wake of the Big Bang. A new breed of City stockbroking firm emerged in its place, serving smaller UK public companies neglected by the so-called bulge bracket. But its future is now also in doubt. Collins Stewart, arguably the trophy asset among the City’s independent broking firms, has had a tentative takeover approach.
John Gapper: Why Sony lost the e-book battle
With the Kindle, Amazon has grabbed the market-leading position from Sony and established a stronger brand, says Gapper. And Sony, meanwhile, is still reeling from Apple’s iPod,
View of the Day: China’s Olympian demand
Concerns that Chinese demand for commodities could slow after the Olympic Games should not be overdone, says Yingxi Yu at Barclays Capital.
Editorial comment: How not to make UK fiscal policy
At least there is a bit of variety. This time the uncertainty about a Treasury tax proposal has preceded rather than followed the official announcement. Alistair Darling said this week that the government would set out in the autumn plans to “help people with housing”. The chancellor of the exchequer’s words fuelled speculation about as yet unspecified changes to stamp duty. It is a bad way to make fiscal policy, however dismal Labour’s plight.
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