Comment and analysis from Tuesday’s FT
The Big Freeze (II): The cost of a wrong turn
In the latest part of the FT’s series to mark a year on from the start of the credit crunch, John Gapper notes that investment banks already struggling with weakened balance sheets may find their most profitable activities curbed. Click here for a guide to the series. http://www.ft.com/bigfreeze
Comment: Alan Greenspan: Governments beware of bailouts
The economic edifice that fostered the surge in global trade is being pilloried for the pause and partial retrenchment, writes Alan Greenspan. The danger is that some governments, bedevilled by emerging inflationary forces, will endeavour to reassert their grip on economic affairs. If that becomes widespread, globalisation could reverse – at awesome cost.
Editorial comment: Japan’s non-recession
Fears that Japan’s government will soon be forced to declare a “technical recession” make a fine example of how useless the technical definition of a recession really is. Two quarters of falling output would mean little to the country. Compared with the US, UK or Spain, its problems are minor.
The Short View: On exchanges
A bubble has burst on the world’s stock exchanges, and barely anyone seems to have noticed, says John Authers. For now, exchanges should be valued as what they are: utilities. If new trading venues gain traction, their share prices may fall further. But it is a safe bet that it will be a very long time before they regain last year’s peak.
Online forum and poll: Short-selling crackdown
Forum and poll: US regulators are eyeing possible action to stop abusive short-selling in shares of significant financial institutions. Have your say on the ethics of short-selling, and the SEC’s new rules on the practice – post comments and queries at the link above
Lex: BHP Billiton/Rio Tinto
Eight rounds into the fight and the tiring heavyweights are locked together, the odd limp punch failing to land. Investors also seem to be fading, despite BHP Billiton’s move on Rio Tinto being potentially the second-biggest deal of all time. Who can blame them? But this cannot go on forever.
Interactive Feature: The FT’s European house price guide
House prices show signs of cooling across Europe but there are considerable variations in price movements between different countries. The FT’s interactive guide gives an overview of house price movements across Europe over 40 years, identifying former hot-spots that are turning cold and showing how in some countries the pace of activity never really warmed up.
Insight: Global economy remains solid
It’s possible that financial markets are misinterpreting the impact of the credit crunch and underestimating the strength of the global economy, writes Tim Bond, head of asset allocation strategy at Barclays Capital. As such, it’s premature for investors to drop their guard against inflation and the recent weakness in commodities is most likely a correction, rather than a reversal of trend. From a global perspective, there is less than meets the eye in the old economy slowdown.
View of the Day: M&A and the dollar
Cross-border M&A flows might prove a driving force behind a future turn in the dollar, argues John Normand, currency strategist at JPMorgan. However, he notes, despite the world’s preference for buying America, the dollar hasn’t managed to rally much off its March lows.
Lombard: UBS and the ‘wealth wars’
Discretion and civilised conduct are the hallmarks of private banking and wealth management, notes Lombard. So one can only imagine what rich clients must think of the High Court spat between UBS and Vestra Wealth, its upstart rival, over staff defections.
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