Nouriel Roubini’s list. Of economies about to have the wool pulled from their eyes and find themselves in recession.
Which countries around the world are at risk of a hard landing, i.e. a sharp growth slowdown and an outright recession? The list is now growing. Countries now at risk of a hard landing now include:
United States
Japan
United Kingdom
Spain
Ireland
Italy
Portugal
Canada
New Zealand
Estonia
Latvia
Some other South-Europe emerging markets
The US, of course, is in for the hardest bump:…a deeper U-shaped recession lasting 12 to 18 months. The worst housing bust since the Great Depression, the US consumer being shopped out, saving-less, debt-burdened and with plunging confidence, a worsening credit crunch and financial crisis that is spreading well outside of the subprime mortgage market, oil now above $130 a barrel, inflation rising leading to stagflationary risks and constraining the Fed’s behavior are all reasons why this will be a severe and protracted recession.
A third of Europe, meanwhile, will have a hard landing, and all of the G-10 can expect a significant slowing in growth in their respective economies. For the UK, it’s much a case of following the US lead. Housing bubbles “even larger than that in the US” are unwinding.
Related links
“Yes Virginia, There Is A Credit Crunch” – Mish’s global economic trend analysis
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