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Updating the numbers at Barclays
Strange goings on at Barclays on Tuesday. According to London-based banking analysts, the bank notified them that the consensus figure for earnings per share published on the Barclays website had been “updated.”
For “updated” read “reduced” — by around 15 per cent, in fact, to 58p for 2007/08 and 68p for 08/09.
Given that forecasts from 20 banking analysts go into the construction of those consensus estimates, one or more rival banks must have issued some swingeing revisions to their numbers to reduce overall EPS expectations by this amount.
Or maybe the number was just a little out of date.
Either way, fingers crossed that chief executive John Varley is able to say he is happy with consensus estimates when he delivers Barclays interim management statement on Thursday.
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didn’t citi bring out a report on Barclays yesterday? haven’t seen it but hear it’s ugly
Concensus earnings in this environment are bound to mis-inform the great unwashed (incl.me) for the consensus includes some estimates that are out of date as all analysts do not all update at the same time . Indeed , some analysts will be waiting for an update from the company before they re-evaluate their forecasts and therefore the consensus going into that process must be questionable. The likes of Investors Chronicle (Pearsons Group) habitually issue buy recommendations in a weak market on the basis of consensus (eg for banks and property companies) suckering in investors through the pathetic dependance of writers on concensus.
Reminds me of BP “guiding down” a few months ago (presumably so they could then smash?) - this is just the sort of unlevel playing field the LSE/FSA should be on to, not the HBOS witch-hunt.