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The numbers vary a tad - but the leveraged loan clearout continues.

The WSJ relays comments from Bill Winters, the co-head of JPMorgan, suggesting that the overhang of bridge loans has been reduced by about half globally since the credit markets seized up last summer.

But what’s this? The latest numbers from Standard & Poor’s LCD puts the US loan pipeline up by $2bn. The total rose from $91.1bn to $93.3bn, after finally retreating below the ton mark in April. It’s a tiny move but the whole business of tracking the loan pipeline is a tricky one. The uptick could come from the correction of a previous error, a new deal with committed funding or the reworking of a previous deal.

CreditSights actually thinks that in the current environment the aggregate estimated pipeline is continually understated. Those firms that are out there actively buying up hung deals will want to leave as little trace as possible of their moves, so that pricing continues to rise only after they’re done.

The sellers may wish deals, or even the presence of potential buyers, to be made public to help prices on their way back up - but, says CreditSights, “we suspect that large scale buyers, who may well be negotiating several purchases with different banks at the same time, have influence over how much information pertaining to the sale is conveyed broadly… to the market.”

The banks themselves may not always court attention for their successes in reducing their loan pipeline. JPMorgan’s Winter noted that though Citi and Deutsche (and we’d add Lehman) have attracted attention for large-scale sales of loans, Credit Suisse had also reduced its book “significantly.”

Deal Journal has previously noted that Credit Suisse has been among those to break ranks with fellow underwriters to syndicate early, and in finding other ways to keep its pipeline moving ahead of the competition. Any non-orthodox transaction which occurs away from the standard syndication process is going to be difficult for the data-followers to track.
As the positive tone in the loan markets grow, Credit Sights is already looking ahead.

At some point, the discussion in the loan market will change from the size of the pipeline to the dearth of new supply…The inflection point between concern focusing on the supply glut to concern that is focused on the dearth of new deals could easily be before July.

UBS’s Dan Stillit is also pondering the change of sentiment - noting that stocks previously supported by LBO prospects have stabilised in the past three months while buyout stocks, such as KKR PEI and 3i, have, along with the market, rallied sharply since March.

But a turning point doesn’t herald the return of free-flowing LBOs and credit back at pre-crunch pricing. Stillit puts the maximum possible buyout size in Europe at about €3bn, based on 60 per cent leverage, senior debt of €1.5bn and mezzanine of €0.5bn. Risk assessment will remain higher and achievable leverage lower, while some (probably large) segment of current loan buyers are taking advantage of pricing depressed by technical factors and will disappear as yields fall. CreditSights argues that the “new par” will still be below par.

Update - More details from S&P LCD. The latest batch of numbers show the hangover of loans from 2007 continuing to fall, from $85bn two weeks ago to $83bn.  The tick up is attributable to new committed deals - not reworkings - being added to the pipeline. A small sign of confidence returning.
Related links
Leveraged loan clearout, Citi edition - FT Alphaville
Lex on leveraged loans
Deutsche Bank loans sales lifts hope of rally - FT.com