Credit from equity. It’s not a new concept but haven’t yet seen it represented as neatly as in this graph.

The team at Bank of America have produced this effort, which shows just how richly equities are trading on a historical basis relative to credit spreads. Credit, they add, appears to have overshot.
But they fear that further significant government intervention, say to stem the downwards spiral of US house prices, may come only after a greater hit to the market most watched by policy makers - stocks.
Reminds me the story about Robert Browning when asked what he meant in one of his poems, he is said to say “When I wrote that God and I knew what I was writing. Now only God knows.”
I’m no credit expert but maybe it is the whole concept of what constitutes “investment grade” needs to be looked at…
anon: Helen is the only miracle on Alphaville!
urghh - even offended myself with that one …
It is!
It’s a miracle on Alphaville!
Is that the face of Jesus I see in the the red dots on the right?
Junior T, behave yourself. We know who you are.
Boo!! No graph, no graph, take it down, take it down.
I support freedom of speech as much as the next zealot but this graph is truly offensive to my financial beliefs. I for one will be cancelling my free subscription to Alphaville. Who’s with me?
OK, ok. You don’t like the graph.
We’d add in BoA’s defence that it is one chart from a 48-page report; apologies to them if we’ve posted it out of context. The graph stays though - feel free to debate its merits or otherwise in full.
BofA seem to think that credit has over-shot? I think given the evidence in the market so far re: write-downs, collapse of Northern Rock, Bear Stearns, various hedge funds, monolines, freeze in intra-bank lending, US recession etc that it would be more correct to say that equities have under-shot. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle but I think credit is being more realistic on the state of the market. Equities seem to have their head firmly in the sand.
[…] FT Alphaville says: Credit from equity. It’s not a new concept but haven’t yet seen it represented as neatly as in this graph. True, new totally diotic concept, comparing a credit spread to the price level of an equity index from Bank of America no less… Whoever wrote this report should be fired on the spot. […]
All due respect to the BOFA team, but this graph is illogical.
The credit risk level could be compared with a risk metric derived from equity markets or a crude substitute like the PE, but it cannot be logically compared to the level of the S&P index.
again
working
hello