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The new decoupling

Credit from equity. It’s not a new concept but haven’t yet seen it represented as neatly as in this graph.

1001.jpg

The team at Bank of America have produced this effort, which shows just how richly equities are trading on a historical basis relative to credit spreads. Credit, they add, appears to have overshot.

But they fear that further significant government intervention, say to stem the downwards spiral of US house prices, may come only after a greater hit to the market most watched by policy makers - stocks.

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Comments

  1. Apr 02   21:10 Posted by j grimes [report]

    Reminds me the story about Robert Browning when asked what he meant in one of his poems, he is said to say “When I wrote that God and I knew what I was writing. Now only God knows.”

  2. Apr 02   12:20 Posted by SR [report]

    I’m no credit expert but maybe it is the whole concept of what constitutes “investment grade” needs to be looked at…

  3. Apr 02   10:58 Posted by Monkey [report]

    anon: Helen is the only miracle on Alphaville!

    urghh - even offended myself with that one …

  4. Apr 02   10:57 Posted by anon [report]

    It is!

    It’s a miracle on Alphaville!

  5. Apr 02   10:53 Posted by jackie blue [report]

    Is that the face of Jesus I see in the the red dots on the right?

  6. Apr 02   10:51 Posted by H Thomas [report]

    Junior T, behave yourself. We know who you are.

  7. Apr 02   10:45 Posted by Junior T [report]

    Boo!! No graph, no graph, take it down, take it down.

    I support freedom of speech as much as the next zealot but this graph is truly offensive to my financial beliefs. I for one will be cancelling my free subscription to Alphaville. Who’s with me?

  8. Apr 02   10:42 Posted by H Thomas [report]

    OK, ok. You don’t like the graph.
    We’d add in BoA’s defence that it is one chart from a 48-page report; apologies to them if we’ve posted it out of context. The graph stays though - feel free to debate its merits or otherwise in full.

  9. Apr 02   10:32 Posted by Monkey [report]

    BofA seem to think that credit has over-shot? I think given the evidence in the market so far re: write-downs, collapse of Northern Rock, Bear Stearns, various hedge funds, monolines, freeze in intra-bank lending, US recession etc that it would be more correct to say that equities have under-shot. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle but I think credit is being more realistic on the state of the market. Equities seem to have their head firmly in the sand.

  10. Apr 02   10:32 Posted by Alea | Dumbest Graph of the Day [report]

    […] FT Alphaville says: Credit from equity. It’s not a new concept but haven’t yet seen it represented as neatly as in this graph. True, new totally diotic concept, comparing a credit spread to the price level of an equity index from Bank of America no less… Whoever wrote this report should be fired on the spot. […]

  11. Apr 02   10:21 Posted by G Cox [report]

    All due respect to the BOFA team, but this graph is illogical.

    The credit risk level could be compared with a risk metric derived from equity markets or a crude substitute like the PE, but it cannot be logically compared to the level of the S&P index.

  12. Apr 02   10:14 Posted by nawab [report]

    again

  13. Apr 02   10:11 Posted by nawab [report]

    working

  14. Apr 02   10:11 Posted by nawab [report]

    hello

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