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April fools’

This entry was posted by Sam Jones on Tuesday, April 1st, 2008 at 8:54 and is filed under Capital markets. Tagged with ubs. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.

1. Apr 01   12:41 Posted by mg [report]

   .

2. Apr 01   11:47 Posted by hedgehog [report]

   mdnawabsiddiqui:

   hello.
   presume you are an investment banker as you are having a communication problem.
   Although you are operating on a different wavelength we are receiving a weak may day type message from you - come down to earth and we are sure we will be able to help in some way.

3. Apr 01   10:42 Posted by mdnawabsiddiqui [report]

   hello

4. Apr 01   10:23 Posted by hedgehog [report]

   with focus on big UBS figure easy to forget Deutsche’s own little problem of 2.5 billion write down on leveraged and RMBS

   PR’s must be due something for timing this one for them

   RBS up 4 % - got to be an April fool element

5. Apr 01   10:14 Posted by hedgehog [report]

   agree with what you write .

   The concept of the market being “right” is not a helpful one.

   All a price tells you is the average view of all parties at that point in time.

   No one can say who is rational or irrational even with hindsight that’s not possible because it depends where you are on the time line when you make such a judgement.
   Keynes view about picking the likely winner of a beauty contest is I think good analogy to bear in mind particularly as you can be influenced in your decision making by the outcome you believe is right and want to see subjugating the alternative and possibly correct short term view

   eg in the case of UBS that despite how ridiculous it might seem the consensus view is that the worst is over and on balance future news can only get better.

6. Apr 01   10:09 Posted by TheWord [report]

   Stock was goosed big time on open. Just look at the volume spike:-

   http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UBSN.VX&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

   If there’s no good follow-up buying, it won’t last.

7. Apr 01   9:51 Posted by VP [report]

   The market is always right insofar as the value/price of anything is what the market says it is. Unfortunately mass investor psychology is involved in setting those prices - the tech boom, the tulip bubble, the South Sea bubble..

   The best traders seem able to look past amateur economist views and work out where the masses will send prices. Not easy to do.

   (The best investors seem able to gauge value and then stick with their view, in spite of how long they might be wrong).

8. Apr 01   9:49 Posted by S Gjelstrup [report]

   April 1st!

9. Apr 01   9:45 Posted by Felix [report]

   The market is always right. The stock market is efficient. Humans are irrational, therefore they don’t understand rational market behaviour.

   I doubt that banks will generate profits at pre-crisis levels in the next 12 months. But then again, I’m not rational.

10. Apr 01   9:29 Posted by bouncing dead cat [report]

    hope is a wonderful thing, too much money burning in investors pockets for sure.The housing market in US is not improving so fundamentals are still very wrong

11. Apr 01   9:22 Posted by VP [report]

    “The worse the news, the more likely it’s the bottom”.

    “Markets always look ahead”.

    Etc. Feels like there’s still too much money around from the “good days”, a while to go before it destroys itself it seems.

12. Apr 01   9:15 Posted by Harry Hindsight [report]

    first trading day of new 1/4. the index is dead! lond live the index!

    technical/ Fib buying etc