The disaffected European banker may be striking one possible career path off their list: hedge fund founder and superstar.
Despite the burgeoning assets allocated to hedge fund strategies globally, the pace of new fund launches in Europe has slowed for the first time, according to Eurohedge. The number of debut funds dropped 12.5 per cent last year, while total assets raised fell 10.8 per cent, the first double drop registered since Eurohedge began its survey in 2000.
The decline in new fund-raising activity was most clear in the second half of 2007, where new fund launches slowed significantly in comparison with the second half of 2006 amid the volatile financial market conditions.
Assets raised by new funds dropped by a third in the second half compared to the first, while the number courting the pool of increasingly timid investors fell by almost the same.
It looks like a crisis of confidence from both sides. Investors, shaken by the return of volatility, put their money elsewhere or prefer larger, more institutional looking funds - rather than with those hard working start-ups. Bright (or not so bright) sparks are more cautious about striking out alone as a hedge fund guru, now that the odd blow-up and a bit of turbulence means it doesn’t seems like such an easy path to riches.
Except, of course, that the new big things scraped in the cash. Decoupling? Check. Amid the belief that the developing world would withstand a US slowdown, assets raised by emerging markets funds doubled in 2007, while the number of funds remained roughly the same. Check also for the related faith in the commodities boom, with a number of big new launches.
The conclusions reached in this commentary is one way to view the hedge fund world - the glass is half full. Allow to offer an alternate, glass half full, view.
The second half of 2007 was remarkable for hedge funds in that despite considerable turmoil assets continued to flow into, and not out of, the asset class. There were few to any blowups in the group, again despite massive losses taken by financial institutions, with hedge funds presumably holding many of the same assets.
The conclusion I come to is the second half of 2007 was most notable for hedge funds in the absence of what could have gone wrong - blowups and a withdrawal of funds. The longer term implications are an asset class that is showing its ability to navigate very difficult periods.
One last point, the increase in the number of hedge funds is unsustainable as performance differences (alpha) will become (already has) much more difficult. The result will likely be consolidation of the industry where the larger and the more successful fund managers absorb the assets of the underperforming managers. Nevertheless, as McKinsey & Co. noted in their recent report - hedge fund assets are headed higher over the next six years.
The glass is more than half full.