Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:09 on 31 Jan 2008. Participants in this chat were: Paul Murphy (PM) Neil Hume (NH)
PM: Welcome to Markets Live – FT Alphaville’s daily markets chat.
PM: Neil Hume is with me.
PM: Im jsut having a play with something
PM: So feel free to post a few comments below
PM: Requests, observations etc
NH: Murph’s got some sort of world map open on his desktop.
NH: Conflict Map?
NH: What is that?
PM: Hmm. Quite a neat little interactive thing.
PM: http://nobelprize.org/educational_games/peace/conflictmap/
PM: Allows you to run a slide over the past 100 years to see where and when there were wars.
PM: Wars – as in countries fighting each other. Also civil wars and colonial wars.
NH: The point being?
PM: Well, the point being that I was talking to a prominent member of the FT’s financials reporting team earlier — he specifically asked for his name not to be mentioned here.
NH: So what was Chris saying?
PM: Well we were discussing the financial squall.
PM: I was wondering whether it is beginning to look like the Spring of 2003, when a selling frenzy developed over a two/three week period.
NH: The insurers were having to sell all equities to try and maintain their solvency ratios – and so everyone else was selling the insurers.
NH: Now, the immediate death spiral was broken by the FSA, who basically gave the insurers the go ahead to bust their ratios – to stop them selling stocks automatically.
PM: But as our colleague pointed out.
NH: Hughes
PM: It was war in Iraq – tanks rolling into Bagdad, Saddam’s statue coming down – that market the real beginning of the markets extraordinary recovery. The FTSE 100 came up from 3270 or so from memory.
NH: So what you saying?
NH: That we need another war!?!?!
NH: Let’s have a war so stock prices go up !?!?!?!?!
PM: Well, no – I was just explaining to you why I had ended up on The Conflict Map.
PM: So where how is the market looking this morning?
NH: Well, “peaceful” by your reckoning I guess.
NH: DOWN, that is.
NH: But it is not as bad as earlier. Footsie currently off 64.6 points at 5772 – fallen thru the 5800 level.
NH: did drop to 5,730
PM: And the reason for this weakness?
NH: Combination of things.
NH: Wall Street really didn’t know how to read the 50bps cut by the Fed last night.
NH: Then we had MBIA – one of the big monolines – taking huge writedowns.
NH: And then we had the S&P move – downgrading zillions of mortgage backed securities – or putting them on negative watch.
NH: That carried through to about a zillion CDOs — the next effect being, according to S&P – that bank writedowns for toxic paper will probably double from $135bn to about $265bn.
NH: The banks have only taken collective writedowns of $70bn so far. So that has spooked the market this morning
NH: and also one of the small monolines saw its credit rating downgrade
NH: most of that grim news came aftter the market closed
NH: but surprisingly did not seem to affect asian markets
NH: but it has Europe
NH: spooked the market
PM: SPOOKED!!!
PM: You can kinda see why people might feel a tad uneasy. What with $265bn of losses headed the banks’ way.
PM: Kinda see why the banking sector might come under a little bit of pressure as a result.
PM: But before we go into some detail on that
PM: first!
PM: We’ve got a treat for you this morning.
PM: You know Bill Ackman, the activist investor – Pershing Square Capital.
NH: He’s the one who has been telling everyone for ages that the monolines were going to blow up.
PM: Now, while this might reflect his worries that the talk of a monoline bailout may gain traction, he has sent out another salvo on Ambac in particular.
PM: Says Ambac faces losses of $11bn from toxic paper it has guaranteed.
PM: But our colleague Sarah Conner…
PM: That’s Sarah Conner, sharp young hack currently on the markets team at the FT.
PM: Not Sarah Conner from The Terminator who gets pursued by Arnie S.
NH: it is O’Connor actually
NH: and she is too young to remember the Terminator films
PM: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Terma3.jpg
NH: So, the FT’s Sarah C….?
NH: O’C
PM: Well, she’d picked that in his latest broadside to the regulators etc, Ackman has distributed a serious Excel spreadsheet that allows you to model the exposure of MBIA and Ambac.
PM: Sarah is doing a separate post on all this for Alphaville.
PM: Sam is going to put the full letter up soon
NH: its up now
NH: we think
PM: But i will also give people the address of this:
PM: Hours and hours and hours and hours of fun
PM: BUT – ive got to warn you – it is a big file – 120megs or so. And while you can open it alright, if you use it properly for modelling each recalculation takes at 25-30 mins.
PM: And – that is what Ackman’s people say it takes on a “typical workstation”
PM: Spec: 3.4GHz Dual Core Pentium D with 3Gb of 800 MHz FSB DDR2 RAM
NH: So it won’t work on this Dell-ette-lite thing in front of me?
PM: I don’t think so.
PM: Anyway, here is the link:
NH: I fear we are now going to loose all our readers as everyone goes off to download Ackman I – The RMBS Game.
PM: Who says old media can’t compete against the modern entertainment industry, which has teenagers glued to their playstations.
PM: We’ve got ACKMAN I – The Monoline Death Throes
NH: Cert 18. Contains foul language and abusive numbers.
NH: And this is an Open Source product – so you can share freely.
PM: Bill Ackman is clearly a tech hippy at heart.
PM: But lets mvoe on!
PM: 
NH: just repeating the message below. if u are having tech difficulties pls email techsupport@ftalphaville.ft.com
NH: and if u think that email is odd
NH: that’s because we cant use Alphaville because it belongs to a toyshop in New York
PM: So what specifically is happening Neil
NH: OK, corporate wise in the UK the big story today is Friends Provident
NH: Stock has slumped
NH: the market does not like the contents of the strategic review
NH: stock off 18p at 136.4p
NH: that’s a fall of 12%
PM: Ouch!
PM: So what doesn’t the market like??
NH: well, the biggest problem
NH: is a re-basing of the dividend
NH: and which ever way u dress it up the payout is going to be cut by 50%
PM: that’s nasty
NH: It is and a bit of a surprise
NH: there is also a shocking profits miss
NH: 2007 EEV profits (that’s some technical measure used in the very confusing world of insurance) will be around £300m
NH: Some analysts were expecting as much as £446m
PM: That’s a HUGE shortfall
PM: Cause??
NH: higher than expected charge taken for persistency (£160m is double the indicated charge at H1).
NH: and if anyone has a handy explanation of presistency we are all ears
NH: as for the other £50m
NH: analysts still aren’t sure where it has gone
PM: What a mess
PM: per·sist·ence /pərˈsɪstəns, -ˈzɪs-/ Pronunciation Key – Show Spelled Pronunciation[per-sis-tuhns, -zis-] Pronunciation Key – Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun
1. the act or fact of persisting.
2. the quality of being persistent: You have persistence, I’ll say that for you.
3. continued existence or occurrence: the persistence of smallpox.
4. the continuance of an effect after its cause is removed.
Also, per·sist·en·cy.
NH: that makes things no clearer at all
NH: right
NH: other point to make here is that
NH: if it were not for the prospect of a 175p a share bid from JC Flowers the shares would be down a lot further this morning
NH: that said, betting on Flowers bid could be dangerous
NH: It’s a fair bet that Flowers was going to use some of the proceeds from the sale of Dutch bank NIBC
NH: to fund a possible tilt at Friends
NH: that deal has been pulled
PM: yes, the buyer Kaupthing has walked away
NH: so betting on a bid looks more risky now
NH: other nasties from today’s strategic review
NH: include
NH: A restatement of how costs are shown in the p&l.
NH: In line with other companies, development costs and corporate costs will now be capitalised in the embedded value – this will take £280m off the EV – and therefore the actual reported EEV profits for 2007 will be close to zero.
PM: this just gets worse
NH: new sales figures were also below expectations
PM: Is there any good news
NH: not much
NH: FP are going to sell their stake in F&C asset management and Lombard, their European wealth operation
NH: and some of that cash will be returned to shareholders
PM: So what do the analysts think of all this?
NH: here’s Tim Young at Collins Stewart
NH: There is nothing in the strategic review that surprises. Moreover, this is a
review not overseen by the new CEO. If Friends really can realise EUR700m
from the Lombard, against an initial EUR265m consideration and further
performance-related payments, then the company has materially closed the
capital gap. The sell-off of the FCAM stake is probably at the wrong time
for valuations and there are risks in not controlling the manager of its
life funds.
NH: Buyers’ market for the UK
NH: There is no shortage of suitors for players in the UK market, where demand
is increasing, competition diminishing and profitability set to improve.
Chris Flowers has already indicated an interest in Friends Provident and we
think he is deeply serious. There remains the question, why would one buy
Friends rather than L&G but perhaps this is the superior turnaround
potential. The “strategic review” is a deck-clearing exercise which contains
various charges for persistency, cost recategorisation and new tax
assumptions that have a ~£400m hit on EEV, IFRS profits and EEV. And the
dividend looks to be cut by almost half (£90m versus £164m in 2006) although
disposal proceeds will be returned to shareholders. With the management
vacuum and disastrous trading, Friends is wide open to take-over by Flowers.
Investors will be begging for such a transaction.
NH: this is from MF Global
NH: A mixed bag, but shares have over-reacted
Friends Provident’s strategic review has produced an outcome that we had expected – a sale of F&C and
Lombard, cost cutting, and a focus on the business’s strengths. We are surprised that all sales proceeds
will be returned to shareholders and this has led to a dividend cut that is certainly not helpful. Friends also
appears to be kitchen sinking the assumptions behind their embedded value ahead of the new CEO’s
start date. We are left with a business that, if the sales are executed and the money returned, will be
trading at a huge discount to embedded value net of asset sales with cash-flows that can fully support the
business while still having good growth prospects and soon a new, credible, CEO. With JC Flowers
potentially waiting in the wings with a proposal to the company at 175p, this morning’s over-reaction
represents a buying opportunity. Realisation of value over the longer term will be slower and while the
upside looks very substantial there remain risks in respect of the asset sales and execution of the new UK
strategy without a CEO at the helm.
NH: Key points
• Friends Provident has adopted a sensible enough strategy, which is to focus on its core
strengths and offer up for sale its other non-core assets, in particular F&C and Lombard. It will
slash initial commissions on its group pensions business and cut costs by £40m p.a. As a result it
should have little in the way of operational cash shortfalls and will have no need to raise capital
for operational funding reasons.
NH: • However, because sales proceeds are being returned to shareholders, Friends will be cutting the
dividend. This is roughly in line with the likely reduced market capitalisation following the sales
but does have the advantage of better matching the cash-flows and allowing scope to grow the
dividend over time. However, we do not think the company needed to do this and it is certainly a
negative.
NH: Hits to the embedded value in terms of assumption changes are larger than expected but we
believe have been “kitchen sinked” ahead of the new CEO joining. The shares are still cheap
against our current embedded value estimate of 155p.
• However, there are some risks associated with announcing prospective sales of assets at this
time in the markets. It certainly would have been much better to have announced a sale. The
sales process could take time and runs the risk of failing to achieve a satisfactory price.
NH: • Nevertheless, we estimate that Friends could get 60p/share for the assets that are up for sale. If
that was returned via a special dividend you would have a share price of 78p, an embedded
value of 125p and appraisal value of approximately 155p, and a dividend of 4.3p/current share.
• JC Flowers is still waiting in the wings, with a sizeable shareholding and a stated intention to bid
in the order of 175p. The negative market reaction taking the shares 20% below this price offers
some support to a more positive view.
• Separately a trading statement was also released today. The figures were in line in the UK but
slightly light at Lombard. This business is very lumpy and had a tough comparative from last year.
PM:
PM: Let’s got thru these banks
NH: taking another hammering this morning
NH: look at some of these
Barclays (BARC:LSE): Last: 448.25, down 30.25 (-6.32%), High: 477.25, Low: 447.00, Volume: 44.69m
Alliance and Leicester (AL.:LSE): Last: 644.50, down 27.5 (-4.09%), High: 670.00, Low: 632.00, Volume: 2.51m
HBOS (HBOS:LSE): Last: 667.00, down 36 (-5.12%), High: 701.50, Low: 666.50, Volume: 13.13m
Lloyds TSB Group (LLOY:LSE): Last: 421.75, down 16.25 (-3.71%), High: 437.00, Low: 420.00, Volume: 13.44m
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS:LSE): Last: 366.75, down 18.5 (-4.80%), High: 388.50, Low: 366.00, Volume: 42.19m
PM: I dont know what to say about that
NH: wipe out
NH: too early to go back in
NH: and we have got the results season to look forward to
PM: 
NH: not sure what is going to provide support for the sector
NH: certainly not valuations
NH: perhaps as Lex said this morning we need to see the earnings forecasts bottom out before it is safe to go back into the banking sector
PM: i think you need a clarifying event — something cathartic
PM: The monolines have to go, say
PM: or one or two banks to go bust
PM: Something has to clear the air
NH: was going through the Oppenhimer note last night and what struck me is how much exposure RBS has to these monolines
NH: not saying it will tip the company into an emergency cash call
NH: but could be painful
NH: one odd thing about the note, was that Barclays did not appear
PM: Some good jokes below. Cheers for those
PM:
PM: But let’s mvoe on
NH: Mitchells & Butlers
PM: What else has caught your eye neil?
NH: and that’s because it is moving lower
NH: the market seems to be very sceptical an offer will emerge for the pubs company
NH: and I have to say I am not surprised
NH: yesterday’s statement was so vague
NH: so vague in fact that no one knows why they even bothered to make the statement
NH: although analysts have a few conspiracy theories
PM: Really?
PM: t some of them
NH: before we do
NH: quick recap on the M&B price
NH: Rose 18% yesterday on news of the takeover approaches
NH: but have given back 10% today
NH: shares down 44p at 428.5p
NH: Right, this is from Mark Brumby at Blue Oar Securities
NH: The newsflow continues with Mitchells & Butlers yesterday seemingly confirming that it was no longer the master of its own destiny by announcing 1) that Mr Robert Tchenguiz had increased his interest in the company to 23% and 2) confirming that it had had a number of ‘preliminary and tentative expressions of interest in the company’
NH: Re the latter, no discussions were taking place and there was could be ‘no assurance that any offer for the company will be forthcoming’ – which does rather beg the question ‘so why announce it?’
NH: The ‘Punch & Greene King to Split up MAB’ story was denied by Punch, few other trade buyers are credible but the VCs 1) are nosey & would like to see the books and 2) (think they’ve) still got access to cash
NH: oh sorry this is all from Mark Brumby at Blue Oar Securities
NH: very sharp analyst
NH: and he can write
NH: The timing, a day after the closure of the company’s disastrous hedge & the day before its AGM and in the absence of any suspicious share price movement, is worthy of note
It would be surprising if M&B had not had ‘approaches’ – a stamp costs 34p (I think) and an email costs nothing
NH: Announcing these approaches 1) has moved the shareprice higher, 2) now obliges CFD holders etc to announce holdings and 3) gives shareholders at today’s AGM something other than the hedge and the Board of Directors to think about
We moved our recommendation to BUY on Tuesday & would reiterate that the company is worth 600p of anybody’s money – but a c100p rise in two days may tempt marginal holders to let a few shares go
NH: love the line on stamps and emails
NH: this is from Nigel Parson from Evolution
NH: M&B has announced “preliminary” and “tentative” approaches to its advisors but said that no discussions have taken place. So, the company is clearly not in receipt of an offer, its not even in receipt of a phone call. So why announce? Was it to make it even clearer that the company is up for sale and stimulate offers? MAB’s freehold pub estate is the best in the industry but the problem will be raising funds to bid in these conditions.
NH: Elsewhere, Tchenguiz again increased his stake yesterday by another one percent to 23%. We are cutting our recommendation from Buy to Add because the risk/reward ratio is less compelling following the +20% rise in the share price this week. We have increased our target price from 450p to 500p to reflect the potential bid activity.
NH: DETAIL – In more normal market conditions, the corporate interest in MAB would be intense but the problem is the ‘ credit crunch’. MAB is highly leveraged with c.£2.8bn of debt and fixed charge cover of 1.9x. In addition to Tchenguiz, our list of parties who should be interested include Punch, Whitbread, Blackstone/Tragus, other private equity and perhaps even some REITs.
NH: We are not convinced of the market’s appetite for rights issues or paper deals at present.
NH: VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION – Our 500p target price for MAB is based on 10x EBITDA, a possible transaction price could reach 600p based on 10x EBITDA having extracted £75m of synergies.
NH: Very cynical these analysts
PM: They certainly are
PM: Think we can add to it
PM: Let me get this straight – yesterday they said they were doing a strategic review.
PM: Now they pop up today and say “Oh, we’ve had approaches”
PM: No talks, no offers – but Hey! We’ve had approaches so we MUST be in an offer period.”
PM: Panel statements all round!
PM: What are they trying to do? Get the price up?
PM: In which case they look like clowns.
PM: Why haven’t they put statements out in the past when they have got the approaches we have known about??
NH: i am just really confused about when a company has to say something
NH: it seems some companies will announce any old approach
NH: while others just don’t tell shareholders about approaches
NH: if they think they are not high enough
PM: it has become farcical
PM: Meanwhile, any other information is deemed to be a breach of the law
PM: Somehow
PM: 
NH: none of this is aimed at M&B, but the whole of the market
NH: just becoming very difficult to know when a statement re:approach is serious or not
PM:
NH: right, looks like things are going from bad to worse at FP
NH: post results call not going at all well
NH: this just in from a broker on the call
NH: asically there is no timing on the asset sales, no idea of how much they will get for it, and Friends have admitted that they may not be able to sell the assets at all and instead go down the demerger route.
PM: Oh dear me
PM: Not be able to sell the assets at all!?!
PM: FP price is now down 19.2 at 136
PM:
NH: right
NH: here’s something for the boys and girls at Debenhams
PM: Deb-ettes
NH: appeared in the Indian press earlier today
NH: Landmark Group set for $10 b retail acquisitions
PM:
PM: Landmark…
NH: yep
PM: have they been buying a stake in Debs???
NH: just over 9%
NH: now, we know one of the deals Landmark are working on is Saks, the US department stores group
NH: they have teamed up with Baugur, the Icelandic investment group, to work on that deal
PM: And Baugur also own a stake in Debs do they not??
NH: 13.5%
PM: So the market is speculating that the UK acquisition will be Debs
NH: Yep
NH: want to see some of this Indian press report
NH: some interesting comments from the boss of Landmark, Micky Jagtiani
PM: Sure
NH: The Dubai-based Landmark Group is all set for two major retail acquisitions, one each in the US and the UK, at a total investment of about $10 billion.
NH: “The deal is at the bidding stage but we are looking at investments in developed countries for growth,” Mr Micky Jagtiani, Chairman, Landmark Group, said on Wednesday.
NH: Mr Jagtiani, who was in Bangalore for the launch of the Oasis Centre – a 200,000 sq. ft mall – said that the retail growth in India and China is hindered by “long gestation periods and high rentals”.
NH: We’re looking at the hospitality sector too for growth, but we’re still early in the learning curve,” he said.
The Group’s Citymax Hotels and Suites will have its first hotel ready by mid-2008.
Designed to provide an all-round family shopping and entertainment experience, Oasis Centre houses Landmark brands – Lifestyle, Spar, Funcity (entertainment centre) and Polynation (food court).
The company is yet to firm up expansion plan for Oasis Centre in the country, as this would depend on ‘real estate opportunity,’ according to Mr Kabir Lumba, Executive Director, Lifestyle International.
More stores
The Landmark Group currently has 13 Lifestyle stores, five Home Centres and two Spar stores in the country.
The company is planning to triple these numbers in the next three years.
Globally, the Group operates 600 stores with a retail presence of over six million sq ft across West Asia, India, China and Spain.
The Group employs 17,500 people, including 3,000 in India.
PM: Okay — very clear — but where did this appear???
NH: Hindu Business Times or Daily I think
PM: And how has Debs shares reacted??
NH: they are now down at the moment. not a widely read publication in the UK
NH: off 1.25p at 71.5p
PM: Not much reaction then
NH: not sure, perhaps no one has picked up on it and also think Baugur are released from a six month lock up period on a bid
PM:
PM: Tellus about Rio — what is the latest?
NH: one of the few stocks to buck the weak market trend
NH: up 56p at £48.75
NH: that follows an interesting performance in Oz overnight
NH: Stock traded +2% all day
NH: BUT then rallied to a +7.5% gain right at the bell
NH: some people think this is suspicious and that it signal that BHP might be poised to increase its offer
PM: Hmm — well does look suspicious
NH: actually got an interesting note on whether BHP will have to bump
NH: from a new broker called Liberum
NH: Our initiating earnings estimates for BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto reveals
that the two companies have surprisingly disparate earnings outlooks,
with RIO´s EPS set to grow by 136% over the next two financial years
to 2009 but BHPB is only expected to grow a mere 38%. Even though it
is subject of an unsolicited approach by BHPB, Rio Tinto comes up the
cheaper of the two companies – implying BHP Billiton’s bid is far too
low and that it cannot afford to wait to raise its offer.
PM: do share
NH: Rio Tinto’s two most important divisions of aluminium and iron ore
(together 67% of 2008E EBITDA) drive superior relative earnings growth
to BHPB in 2008 and beyond. Superior volume growth comes from both
the Alcan acquisition and organic expansion in iron ore, with a similarly
greater proportion of RIO´s earnings leveraged to positive pricing
momentum in iron ore prices (we expect +60% this year) and aluminium
NH: Our estimates show that BHP Billiton´s superior earnings performance
relative to RIO in the past four years is about to reverse. We believe that
the benefits of the acquired growth from the WMC acquisition plus
exposure to peaking nickel have now played out. That said, BHPB is far
too cheap stand alone given the quality of its assets and management
plus its long term growth outlook.
NH: Our valuation analysis confirms that the BHPB 3:1 all share ‘merger’
proposal of last year was a cheeky low-ball offer (our RIO NPV is
£71.06/shr). Furthermore, the diverging relative earnings momentum
suggests BHPB cannot afford to wait to up its bid – and that any bump
will need to be material. We feel an increase in the range of 33%-48% is
needed in order to win shareholder support.
NH: so we could get a 50% bump
NH:
NH: just looking at M&B
NH: in an acution period now
PM: Stock goes there when the order book gets in a tangle
PM: Indicated at 423
PM: Company says “We have had an approach”!
PM: Price falls 11%
PM: Marvellous
PM:
NH: Bit of RAW market info
NH: had a few calls this morning on something in the FTSE 250 called Southern Cross Healthcare
PM: oh yeah
NH: folk asking what was going on
NH: stock has taken a pounding recently due to director share sales and departures
NH: view in the market seems to be that if the price stays down here management or former management could take it private
NH: in fact there are rumours that the company’s former CEO has been in the market buying stock
NH: anyway the shares are up 9.25p at 341.25p
NH: company is also on a roadshow in the US at the moment
NH: so the move could be down to that
PM: Hmmm — just looking at the chart. Price has come back all the way from 540p at the beginning of the year
NH: yep been a disaster
PM:
PM: — but first
NH: yep some doom and gloom to end with
NH: from Richard Crossley the technical analyst at NCB stockbrokers
NH: he says remain wary of the banks
NH: A significant performance in yesterday’s
American session, a massive intra-day reversal
probably setting the bearish tone for some time
to come
NH: Hence, marked weakness in the Financials- and
consumer confidence-relateds, hence General
Financials, Travel and Leisure etc. minus 2%, Equity
Investment Instruments, minus 2½%, Housebuilders
a particularly weak feature, minus 6%.
NH: All as it should be.
NH: And representing themes which
are already old and familiar, but
have much further to run.
NH: European equity markets are rarely referred to
here.
An exception, in today’s note, is that of Germany.
The German Financials, especially the Banks,
have been weak relative to their global
counterparts.
NH: There is reason to believe that this trend will
continue and accelerate.
The charts of the major German banks continue
to look very weak, with marked downside in
prospect.
NH: But not just the majors, a quoted ‘landesbank’
(regional) shown below, typifying the technical
appearance of its peers :
OLDENBURGISCHE LANDESBANK AG
0
PM: Thats nice and gloomy
NH: Completely dreadful, and symptomatic of a much
deeper, and no doubt long-lasting malaise.
The German consumer confidence-relateds have
also been particularly weak, the General retailers
markedly weak in the last few months, minus
25% since last September relative to their global
counterparts
This
NH: This theme, as with that of weakness in
prospect in the German Financial-relateds,
looks to have much further to run.
NH: As also, indeed, does the ancient theme
of weakness in prospect in the
Financials in all equity centres.
Elsewhere, note new highs in the chart below,
textiles to pork bellies.
NH: This, all in all, represents a very serious
conjuncture of circumstances.
Richard
PM: V gloomy indeed!
PM:
PM: Right — competition time!
PM: And ive got to confess to being confused
PM: thought the Fed stuff yesterday was simply a poll
PM: And Bennie subsequently took ML readers;’ advice and cut by 50bps
PM: The competition — prize being lunch on Neil’s expenses –
NH: that’ll be at Pret Manger then
PM: Was for calling the Footsie close tomorrow — friday
PM: Now I’ve already made my prediction, which is now looking comical
PM: 
PM: 6020
PM: So shall we start a gain?
PM: Footsie close at 4.45 Fri:
PM: Neil?
NH: I am hols tomorrow
PM: Oh od it. I’m off to lunch
NH: me too, see ya next week
PM: Thanks for joining us. I will be here tomorrow with Rob hopefully
PM: thanks for bearing with the tech probs
PM: Sure they will be sorted soon.
PM: 