Financial meltdown, while painful, can be good for your career. Look at Minsky, the new economist du jour, who commentators the world over are fighting over to claim as their own.
Now the subprime debacle seems to be creating another celebrity in the form of Alphaville favourite Christopher Wood.
The WSJ has picked up on Mr Wood’s colourful commentary in his Greed & Fear newsletter, in which he tipped the collapse in US mortgage-backed securities back in 2005.
He warned that US mortgage debt was “where the credit risk lies in the American and global financial system.”
Mr Wood, who spends most of his time strategising for Hong Kong brokerage CLSA, has called financial frothiness before, says the WSJ. He urged investors to sell just as Nasdaq was about to peak in 2000, and sounded the alarm on Thailand before the 1997 devaluation of its currency helped spark the Asian crisis.
His take, they add, on the current situation is not encouraging:
In the credit world I think we’ve been in a bubble every bit as big as the one in technology in 2000 and in Japan in the 1980s,” he says. The chief culprit, Mr. Wood believes, is securitization, which he thinks “has been basically running amok” in the US in recent years. Securitization in the housing market, he says, has led investors to ignore legitimate financial risk by pretending that it is too spread-out to matter.
We’d expect nothing else.
Article Series - Greed & Fear
- And the yen carry trade
- In the bond market, the yen carry trade and Japan
- On the end of securitisation and the looming sell-off
- In CDOs and Asian markets
- In the 'commodity complex' and EM debt spreads
- In the subprime mire: 'Time to short credit spreads'
- In the 'deleveraging cycle'
- Don't worry, more bad news is on the way
- In a funk -- get those central banks out of the markets
- On the potential for panic
- Don't invest in something you can't explain in a single sentence
- On the US property outlook and Asian markets
- And another new subprime celebrity...
- The coming unwind of structured finance
- Risk aversion is alive and well in Japan
- In the money markets: It's an insolvency issue
- - "Britain is only about housing, financial services and subprime lending"
- Buy gold, avoid 'structured excreta'
- Greed & Fear: America's bizarre GSEs and the coming Asian bubble
- Greed & Fear: And you think America has problems...
- [Greed & Fear] Where to from here?
- Financial constipation: The big ‘dump’ is coming
- The new Asia Maxima and the demise of credit
- Can an old trade work new tricks?
- Flirting with Armageddon
- Avoid panic, take a long-term view
- On the brink, around the world...
- The nasty aspects of securitisation gone wrong...
- The fallout for China equities -- and the rating agencies
