What to make of the Chinese government using $3bn of its vast forex reserves to buy a 9.9 percent stake in Blackstone?
Lex thinks it’s a political masterstroke. Investing some of its dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves in a US entity addresses US fears that diversification into riskier asset classes would hurt the dollar. The timing, just ahead of this week’s strategic economic dialogue, also demonstrates a willingness to engage with the US. If, as many expect, Beijing follows the investment with (modest) liberalisation of the financial services industry, Treasury secretary Hank Paulson will be able to impress Wall Street, as well as big business.
Finally, as an anchor investor in one of America’s biggest private equity firms, Beijing should be assured of a warmer reception next time it goes shopping in the US.
Others agree. Blackstone looks to be buying itself an easier ride for investments in China, says the All Roads Lead To China blog.
Spare a thought, though, for rival Carlyle. It’s Carlyle that has dedicated months to trying to get a deal done in China, repeatedly cutting its stake in the face of regulatory disagreement and political pressure over its planned investment in Xugong Construction.
Elsewhere, conspiracy theorists are getting warmed up over possible links and influences between the investment, the US government and the impending presidential election.
Financially, points out Lex, there is little to quibble with. True, investing in a financial sponsor’s fund — the route taken by Korea’s national pension fund — might prove more lucrative. But the chances are Beijing will be offered a slug of at least some of Blackstone’s juicier deals.
Beijing will be able to shrug it off even if, heaven forbid, the share price bombs. Its $3bn investment is mere pocket change: at current rates, reserves are growing by that amount every two days.
As for Blackstone and its ilk, how reassuring to know there is another pool of capital they can tap should the credit markets sour. From that perspective, Asian central banks’ $3,300bn kitty makes them the perfect investor of last resort.
