It’s billed as an opportunity to trade uncertainty in the pursuit of collective wisdom. The World Economic Forum has hooked up with Thomson Financial in a scheme to use the market mechanism to create an objective consensus about the future.
How many severe weather events will we see during 2006? Wearealldoomed will sell you 37 lots at 129 apiece, while Gungasdindin is a buyer of 37 at 125.
These are two of 500 play-money traders already dealing in four contracts listed on a virtual market. The wagers include the numbers of US troops in Iraq at the year end, the peak price for Brent crude during 2006 and the number of countries with confirmed cases of Avian flu — as well as the weather bet.
The aim is to produce unbiased opinion on non-financial global risks, with traders chancing their reputations rather than their hard cash. A ranking currently puts Rajx2 in poll position, with a net worth of $48,269, and traders who top the WEF and Thomson league can expect plenty of publicity at Davos in January.
Traders can also make financial-related bets relative to global events. The consensus believes, for example, the the Dow Jones Industrial index will have sunk to 10,100 by the end of next year in the event that Avian flu has been confirmed in more than 75 countries.
But, in the event of such a pandemic, Alphaville wonders what the price would be on members of the global elite actually would be attending Davos? Hint: we’re sellers.
