Anticipating the central banks

Fresh from the inbox, first from Goldman:

We expect the BoE to implement policy actions aimed at maintaining market functioning (in difficult circumstances), by activating swap lines with other major central banks and by announcing additional liquidity operations, including the provision of term funding for UK banks. Read more

Brexit: the monetarists weigh in

We are full-on tin hats mode here on Alphaville, as we pass along interesting commentary as fast as we spot it.

Two of the most prominent monetarist economists have just weighed in on Brexit, concluding that it represents a monetary shock more than, well, all the other kinds of shock. Read more

Thought for the weekend

Karen Buck MP: I am just interested in the contribution that BHS would make. Did the trustees ask for more than £10 million?

Sir Philip Green: I don’t know. You must have been a mind-reader in your previous life. Were you? Read more

Thought for the weekend

MARK HOWARD QC: You were intending was that this would be a rigged auction where you would be assured the opportunity to win because you would have access to information which was confidential when no one else would have access to your information…?

GUY HANDS: If we take the word “rigged” away, yes.

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FirstFT – Brexit defection, the maze beneath London and why smart guys still wear suits

Sarah Wollaston, a senior Tory MP, has abandoned the Leave campaign in the first major political defection of the referendum debate Read more

Ira Sohn in HK (warning: contains shorts) UPDATED

By Jennifer Hughes and Peter Wells in Hong Kong

We’re not sure US and UK regulators attend hedge fund conferences, but in Hong Kong they do. Ashley Alder, head of the Securities and Futures Commission even opened the gig and described hedgies as “a breath of fresh air.”*

See below for some of the ideas presented – and the first short ones in five years of the conference in its various guises.

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Thought for the weekend

“When I began covering Bernie Sanders for The Huffington Post, my goal was to imagine what an equally accurate and reasonable and just master narrative sitting alongside the one promoted by the corporate media would look like. I wanted to write editorials that came from that master narrative, not the corporate one, because I believed then and believe still that the experimental journalism of the future will embrace the multi-dimensionality of metanarrative. Write that Sanders is in the midst of a competitive primary race enough times — and support those claims with unimpeachable elements of the totalized “Real” — and in time we collectively can see that that seemingly impossible metanarrative is every bit as powerful and present and perceivable as any other.”

Seth Abramson, columnist at The Huffington Post.

Thought for the weekend

“It didn’t take long for the BitShares community to realize that funding projects today would cause a short-term fall in the value of BitShares. Unable to bear the short-term paper-loss and psychological impact of a lower market cap, people started electing proxies that would vote against all spending proposals.”

– Lessons in decentralised autonomous organisations from Dan Larimer.

Thought for the weekend

How to live a life – this Shakespearian brief candle? Should I listen to the beat of a bass drum instead of an ancient tom-tom? Would I dare dance to strange new music with a different step? “Forward” is my futile response. Forward – with difficult questions. John Denver expressed it succinctly, “If there’s an answer, it’s just that it’s just that way”.

Bill Gross, Janus, May 4

Craig Wright: “I’m sorry”

Make of this what you will…

From the website of Dr Craig Wright, the latest potential Satoshi:

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Thought for the weekend

(Bloomberg LP competes with Zero Hedge in providing financial news and information.)

Bloomberg LP Read more

US growth slows, Mallya defiant and China’s robot revolution

GDP growth of 0.5 per cent was less than half the rate set in the previous quarter due to tumbling corporate investment and lower exports Read more

Thought for the weekend

FirstFT – Trump and Clinton win New York primaries, Yahoo on the block and ‘bulk wine’

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With 98 per cent of the ballots counted, Donald Trump had secured 60.5 per cent of the vote in the empire state’s Republican primary election. In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton had won 57.9 per cent of the vote to Bernie Sanders’ 42.1 per cent with 98 per cent of the ballots counted. Read more

Thought for the weekend

“The world faces many challenges, now more than ever,” he told the audience. “And we hope that by building a globally available service, sharing content from all parts of the world, that we can do our part of increasing global understanding towards a goal of greater peace and empathy.”

Asked later by BuzzFeed News to elaborate on that point, Hastings said entertainment had always played a role in “exposing people to influences beyond their sphere”. He pointed to shows such as Orange Is the New Black , which he said had created a much better understanding of transgender issues that are rarely portrayed in television. Sarandos added: “The more you know about people, the more likely you are to not go to war with them.”

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FirstFT – Chinese GDP, Brexit vs Obama and bureaucracy battles

China’s economy grew at 6.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2016, well within the government’s targeted range but at the slowest level since first quarter of 2009 Read more

Thought(s) for the weekend

Dharmesh’s culture code incorporates elements of HubSpeak. For example, it instructs that when someone quits or gets fired, the event will be referred to as “graduation.” In my first month at HubSpot I’ve witnessed several graduations, just in the marketing department. We’ll get an email from Cranium saying, “Team, just letting you know that Derek has graduated from HubSpot, and we’re excited to see how he uses his superpowers in his next big adventure!” Only then do you notice that Derek is gone, that his desk has been cleared out. Somehow Derek’s boss will have arranged his disappearance without anyone knowing about it. People just go up in smoke, like Spinal Tap drummers.

- Fortune, My Year in Startup Hell, Dan Lyons  Read more

Just how volatile will June 23rd be for sterling?

By Giles Wilkes, normally found at Lex or writing leaders.

So on Wednesday 23rd March, three month implied volatility for the proud pound was 14.5 per cent, which is up a third from 11 per cent the day before.

For an options market maker, such a move in ‘vol’ is a pretty big deal: expected volatility in a market is the major factor driving prices, and being caught the wrong way on such a move would be enough to cause a fairly large loss. But that is not what happened.

The reason for the change in three month vol was rather more mundane. Read more

Thought for the weekend

A Goldman Sachs wife explains: ‘My nanny does the school run, and attends all the parent-teacher stuff that I can’t – she’s a face for our family, and I need her to be beautifully presented.’ And, of course, a really beautiful nanny isn’t just attractive to the father of the family – sapphic affairs can happen as well. Likewise, not all nannies are female, and a hot male nanny can be a very seductive proposition. Overall, it transpires that there are major benefits to a hot nanny.

–”Practically perfect! The hottest nannies in London” Tatler

Long EM?

Just saying…

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Thought for the weekend

Super inspired by my visit to Ikea today, really amazing company… my mind is racing with the possibilities…

Placeholder docs for Metro Bank (updated)

We’re getting worried. Seven hours (at pixel) had elapsed on Monday since share trading in Metro, the dog-lover’s bank, kicked off in London. And still there’s been no sign of a published prospectus.

We just hope that something has not gone wrong. Because right now, institutional holders who bought shares in the pre-float placing (and got to see the draft documentation) will be dealing while in receipt of inside information if they try to take advantage of the 10 per cent Day One Pop and sell.

So, in an effort to level the investor playing field and un-falsify the market, here are the two key docs that anyone trading this stock needs to read. Read more

Thought for the weekend

Unlike the Sun, whose fate and lifespan can be scientifically determined, there is little evidence that anything could ever change what has been until now a flawed, yet the best economic system conceivable.

Bill Gross, Janus Capital Investment Outlook

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A quick bit of tin rattling…

Click to read:

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FirstFT – Iranian election, swag bags and lessons in debt

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she had no “Plan B” for solving the refugee crisis and insisted there was nothing that would make her change course during an interview on Sunday.

Ms Merkel said she could understand a recent poll that showed 81 per cent believed her government had lost control of the migrant crisis, but rejected the proposal backed by many in Germany to introduce an upper limit on migration. However, she admitted that the refugee crisis was the worst she had faced in her 10 years as chancellor, dwarfing even the eurozone debt problem. (FT)

6da52040-c045-49c4-89c8-ce9baada604f Read more

Thought for the weekend

General Secretary, your back and my gaze
My eyes are giving birth to this poem
My fingers are burning on my cellphone

I think hard for this poem
Searching almost every part of my body
It blocks my blood vessels and nerves
It fluctuates in the Yellow River and Yangtze River
It’s running on the Great Wall
It follows the camel bell on “One Belt, One Road”
And the warm bliss from mighty ships and high-speed trains

FirstFT – European tensions mount, the Kurdish key and an opiate for the masses

The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin Read more

Caption competition: Welcome to your dystopian present edition

Courtesy of Zuckerberg himself.  Read more

FirstFT – Big business backs Cameron’s EU push, HSBC cuts pay and Britain’s Atlantis

The bosses of about half of Britain’s 100 biggest companies are to sign a letter backing David Cameron in his fight to keep the country in the EU in the referendum in June that will shape the future of the UK.

The barrage of business support will come as some relief to Mr Cameron after London mayor Boris Johnson on Sunday declared his support for a British exit. (FT) Read more

Thought for the Weekend

Any start-up where fortunes are won and lost, and fortunes have been won and lost in this last two month period, and unfortunately we had to battle it out to get to this point, but we’re there, I believe we’re there anyway, I can’t say for sure we’re there, but I feel very confident that we’re past the worst, and we now move on from here. It’s solid, it’s stable, we’re in a good space, we’re in a good spot, and we’ve held our nerve, I’ve forced you to hold out your nerve because I asked you to and I have taken you through that. But we’re past that point, and now it’s all sunshine and light.

–Dan Wagner, speaking to Powa staff in an internal video in late 2015

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