What to wear at Camp Alphaville

Well, you won’t need your wellies. Here’s the forecast for Wednesday…

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First FT: A vote on the euro, Apple music launch, biosimilar drugs

Europe’s message to Greek citizens is simple: they are voting on membership of the eurozone. Read more

Chinese equities… and fat pipes of wealth extraction

Right, so today the Shanghai Composite is up 5.6 per cent, Shenzhen is up 4.8 per cent and ChiNext has gained 6.3 per cent. And we have no idea what’s going to happen tomorrow

Over the past few days we got a clear government push to keep this thing up — including pushing something like an extra RMB1tn into the system via RRR and benchmark rate cuts over the weekend and, today, fund managers being told to help out — but it’s unclear how long that can keep things contained following near 20 per cent falls in these markets since their (admittedly v impressive) peaks in early June.

As of yesterday it was: not much at all as markets tumbled. As of today it’s: a bit more than that as they don’t.

To help clear things up, here’s Anne Stevenson-Yang of JCap Research with her most recent note: Read more

Markets Live: Tuesday, 30th June, 2015

Live markets commentary from FT.com 

Plus500, absent numbers, materiality and blame

Plus500, the Israel based but London listed contract for difference group, has released another update about progress on efforts to deal with a freeze of all UK customer accounts demanded by the regulator.

We’ll get to the latest puzzle implied by the numbers below, but first a point about blame. Who’s fault is it that the company will soon, pending approvals, be sold at a price just over half that of the valuation of only a few months ago? How did Plus500 get away with churning through customers for so long?

Perhaps regulators might have acted sooner. Tuesday’s release, however, highlights again the ability of a company to choose what numbers it discloses, and failings here are the fault of Plus500′s shareholders. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Tuesday,

- Reversible? Move along, nothing to see here.

- BIS drops Greece from the eurozone.

- Playboy debates the end of man.

- The anatomy of a manhunt.  Read more

FT Opening Quote – Ocado delivers

Wags who said Ocado starts with a zero, ends with a zero and will amount to zero may be eating their words with its latest numbers. FT Opening Quote, with commentary by City Editor Jonathan Guthrie, is your early City briefing. You can sign up for the full newsletter here. Read more

BREAKING: Last minute Greek emergency session at Camp Alphaville

We too can rip up our promised programme to respond to the evolving wants and desires of the Camp Alphaville polis.

As of pixel time, Wednesday’s “The Untouchables: The Saga of Weird Emerging Market Sovereign Bonds” debate becomes the “Last minute Greek emergency session” panel — to be moderated by our resident sovereign default expert Joseph Cotterill (who also doubles up as the FT’s private equity correspondent).

Joseph will be joined by:

  • Paul McNamara, Investment Director, Emerging Markets, GAM Holding AG
  • Gabriel Sterne, Head of Global Macro Research, Oxford Economics
  • Rodrigo Olivares-Caminal, Professor of Banking and Finance Law, Queen Mary University London

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Monday’s Greek bond yields charted and preserved for posterity

Courtesy of Tradeweb, a summary of the Greek bond yield action this Monday:

Yields on the 10-year Greek government bond surged to their highest levels since November of 2012, according to data from Tradeweb. The bid yield on the 10-year Greek bond closed at 15.429%, the highest yield since November 30, 2012, when it closed at 16.262%. Today’s closing yield was up 462 bps from the close on Friday at 10.814%. This is the largest one-day yield increase since Tradeweb began trading Greek government bonds in November of 2001. The next closest one-day move by order of magnitude was on March 7, 2012, when the 10-year bond surged 388 bps amidst the Greek debt swap to avoid default. Read more

El-Erian: The Graccident, as captured by the FT’s front page

The writer is chief economic adviser to Allianz and chair of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council
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Sensing that this could be “history in the making” for Greece and for Europe, I decided a few weeks ago to keep physical copies of the FT (yes, I still get a physical copy!). While the inside of the paper contained rich reporting and comprehensive analysis, the headlines on the front page ended up providing a great feel for what transpired in this horrific tragedy. Read more

5,000 years of dread, charted

At a Parliamentary Committee hearing a few years ago I asserted, boldly, that global interest rates were at their lowest-ever levels. A wise colleague challenged me afterwards: “How do you know they weren’t lower in Babylonian times?” Several exhausted research assistants later I can report that, luckily, I was on safe ground. Interest rates appear to be lower than at any time in the past 5000 years…

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What’s the true value of a vomiting camel?

Aesthetic delight, historical artefact or a top quality investment?

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Slater & Gordon: oops, we double counted the cash

Slater & Gordon is the Australian law group which has bought almost all of Quindell, the London-listed basket of businesses balanced atop a law firm. On Friday we asked them about the difficulty of reconciling some lines on the cash flow statement to other part of the accounts. On Monday the group issued a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange restating historic cash flow statements.

The company and its auditor have begun a detailed analysis of financial information to be provided to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, and discovered “a consolidation error… in the reporting of historical UK cashflows”. Accounting firm E&Y has been appointed to oversee the responses to ASIC queries.

Also on Monday, Quindell announced it wouldn’t publish 2014 financial statements by the end of June deadline, and its shares remain suspended. Historic figures will also be restated following a review by PWC. Investors might ask, what is the problem with law firm accounting? Read more

Markets Live: Monday, 29th June, 2015

Live markets commentary from FT.com 

How’s that Zhou put working out for ya?

We’ll tear ourselves away from Greece to point out that Chinese markets are totally normal.

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Putting the ‘New Deal’ into climate R&D

At last week’s FT125 forum Bill Gates called for more investment in breakthrough clean technology research like high-altitude wind, which attempts to capture energy from the the fast flowing narrow air currents found in the earth’s atmosphere.

Gates also said he is planning to double his personal investment in transformational green tech to $2bn over the next five years in an attempt to “bend the curve” in combating climate change.

But another less expected message from Gates was that billionaire entrepreneurs like him operating in the private sector can’t be depended upon to change the energy paradigm alone — what some might describe as a slap in the face of those American tech entrepreneurs who favour fiercely laissez faire approaches to such challenges. Read more

We know what the euro is doing to Greece…

But, as the foreign press corp does its best to hurry some much needed euro into the Greek economy, we should also look at what Greece is doing to the euro.

Here’s Nomura’s head of FX, Jens Nordvig, on what to watch where the single, now more parlous, currency is concerned: Read more

Greece: Analyst views on capital controls, bank holidays

We’ll be slamming up the best of our collective inbox on matters Greece as and when the good stuff pours in.

Catching up on the last few hours, here’s JP Morgan’s Greg Fuzesi:

In light of the deepening crisis in Greece, a key question is how the ECB will respond to any signs of contagion to the rest of the Euro area. At the end of today’s policy statement about the ELA decision, the ECB said that “the Governing Council is closely monitoring the situation in financial markets and the potential implications for the monetary policy stance and for the balance of risks to price stability in the euro area.” The ECB added that “the Governing Council is determined to use all the instruments available within its mandate.”

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FT Opening Quote – Europe braced for Greek sell-off

European equities, bonds and the common currency are under pressure this morning from the crisis in Greece, where banks and markets are closed. FT Opening Quote, with commentary by City Editor Jonathan Guthrie, is your early City briefing. You can sign up for the full newsletter here. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Monday,

- Ten days in June.

- The long history of the fight against Uber.

- London house prices approaching £200 per brick.

- How long is the short run this time? Read more

Grexit further reading

Elsewhere on Greece:

- Time for a fresh start?

- How the recovery will look like when Greece leaves the euro.

- Europe’s moment of truth leads to Grisis.

- What might contagion look like?  Read more

Greece: bank analysts and eurowatchers on what to expect on Monday (UPDATED)

For the latest on the ECB’s liquidity position on Greece, see our post here.

Meanwhile, here’s some instant analysis by way of the FT Alphaville collective inbox:

UPDATE: Capital controls and a bank holiday now confirmed; full research pack from Buiter, Barr and others available in the usual place. Read more

The BIS on ETFs and bond market liquidity

The latest BIS Annual Report, released on Sunday, cites numerous concerns about the unseen damage being caused to financial stability on account of ultra-low interest rates.

Key among those concerns: how liquidity-guaranteeing ETFs in the bond sector may be contributing to a global liquidity illusion, disguising the true state of the ability to trade positions on the bond market — a topic very close to FT Alphaville’s heart. Read more

“The Governing Council stands ready to reconsider its decision”

The decision being to keep emergency liquidity to Greek banks going at its level last week. From the ECB’s Sunday statementRead more

“The Eurogroup has been open until the very last moment…”

After that late-night announcement in Athens of a July 5th referendum, the response on Saturday…

In one sense, Greece’s full membership of the euro is, quite literally, already being consigned to the footnotes of history.

Capital outflows, then and now

From Deutsche on capital outflow (lots of very crucial capital outflow) from Greece vs the periphery, 2012 vs now:

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‘Tranquil exclusivity’ in the heart of London for just £1.375m

From Redrow’s marketing blurb for their new “Holland Park 205″ development:

For those looking for apartments in central London, this exquisite development enjoys both a prime location in the heart of the city, as well as a tranquil exclusivity renowned within these upmarket neighbourhoods.

This enclave of west London combines elegant leafy streets and squares with the beautiful 54 acre Holland Park, where there is outdoor opera on balmy evenings.

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Markets Live: Friday, 26th June, 2015

Live markets commentary from FT.com 

Calling a top in China

Title wise, That was nuts. Is this the crash? was already taken. In this exact context. Last week.

So… this time the Shanghai Comp has just closed down 7.4 per cent (with some 70 per cent of stocks hitting downward limits), Shenzhen fell 7.9 per cent while ChiNext dropped 8.9 per cent. Read more

The changing nature of Americans’ income

It’s amazing what you can find when you spend some time in table 2.1 of America’s National Income and Product Accounts.

As anyone following the debates about inequality has surely heard, income from owning capital has fluctuated dramatically as a share of total personal income:

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