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BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda promises to stabilise bond market || Proctor & Gamble brings back AG Lafley || States’ rift on taxes widens || Icahn seeks up to $7 billion for Dell bid || Tokyo denies ‘ghosts’ keeping PM out of residence || Spanish banks will need to provision up to another €10bn || Draghi wants UK to become ‘more European’ || German IFO rises || Private consumption helps German economy to meager growth || An agreement opens some Chinese audit papers to the U.S || EU rushes out corporate tax transparency rules || Gold is having a good week || Markets wrap || FTAV’s latest Read more
Nikkei slides again after Kuroda remarks, yen strengthens || P&G brings Lafley back as CEO || Spanish banks need another €10bn to provision refinanced loans || EU rushes new corporate tax rules || Draghi says UK should be more European || Wolf: Osborne should take IMF concerns seriously || Abe’s big agenda isn’t economics || Carbon market slump more than a technical problem Read more
Nomura’s Richard Koo put out a note on Tuesday reacting to the rise in JGB yields since the Bank of Japan went into QE overdrive that seems worthy of some attention.
He thinks the Bank of Japan, in reaction to yields heading upwards, needs to declare that it will not tolerate overshooting of inflation. They’ll need to rein themselves in:
What can the BOJ do? To begin with, the Bank and the government could make it clear that they are targeting a 2% rate of inflation but at the same time, they will not under any condition tolerate a significant overshooting of that rate.
Live markets commentary from FT.com
Nikkei crash || QE fears and Bernanke || Poor Chinese data || Risk on currencies benefiting || Hewlett-Packard showed signs that its turnaround is working || IMF considering the biggest changes to its policy on sovereign debt restructuring in over a decade || Ford exits Australia amid mounting losses || Shrinking subsidiaries || EC plans to make investor “burden sharing” a bigger part of the conditions for EU banks to receive state aid || General Electric is considering an IPO of its consumer finance business || Rating agencies under MBS attack || Markets roundup || FTAV’s latest Read more
ROUND-UP
Ben Bernanke suggested the Federal Reserve could begin ending QE “in the next few meetings” if the jobs market continues to improve. “If we do that, it would not mean that we are automatically aiming towards a complete wind-down,” he cautioned, in testimony to Congress (Financial Times). Minutes of April’s FOMC meeting showed some officials were ready to “adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting” (Wall Street Journal). Read more
Now here’s a sign of the times…
The Network aims to promote collaboration in international financial matters to help facilitate cost-effective resolution of disputes and avoidance of duplicative and inconsistent adjudication of the same matters in different jurisdictions, thus increasing the likelihood of resolving financial disputes in a way that all market participants will find to be substantively and procedurally fair… Read more
This is a guest post by Manmohan Singh, a senior economist at the IMF. Views expressed are his own and not those of the IMF. This is the second part of a series looking at the role of pledged collateral in an IS/LM framework.
Price of money and Price of collateral
In some countries like the US and the UK, the price of money and money market rates are not market-determined due to IOER (interest on excess reserves), and this affects other short end rates. In the US, for example, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and other non-depository institutions are not eligible for IOER. This leads to market segmentation and forms a wedge in the money market rates.[1] Read more
This is a guest post by Manmohan Singh, a senior economist at the IMF. Views expressed are his own and not those of the IMF.
The concept of financial collateral (or pledged collateral that can be re-used in the markets) was not fully developed in academia in the late 1990s. Activities such as securities lending, repo, OTC derivatives and rehypothecation were still in their infancy—both in volume and sophistication. Read more
Everyone has an open mind about negative rates these days… Swiss National Bank chief Thomas Jordan has said he certainly does following this piece of repeat advice from the International Monetary Fund’s annual report on Switzerland (our emphasis):
The conjuncture of Switzerland may render some of the potential drawbacks [of negative interest rate] less relevant than in other countries. Activity in the interbank market is already very low, as all banks have excess liquidity. Switzerland is experiencing strong credit growth, particularly in the mortgage market. The impact of negative interest rates on mortgage rates depends on the pass-through.
Live markets commentary from FT.com
Live markets commentary from FT.com
Oklahoma tornado kills dozens and flattens town || Congress accuses Apple of avoiding billions in tax || U.S. and Europe prepare to settle Chinese solar panel cases || US corn rush threatens prices || Vodafone to reinvest £2.1bn Verizon dividend || Qatar buying fresh stakes in key banks || Goldman Sachs is selling its remaining shares in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China || Riverstone leads talks of $1bn commodities venture || Japan panel warns of dangers if debt not addressed || U.K. inflation slowed more than economists forecast in April || Markets roundup || FTAV’s latest Read more
Yes, it’s hardly a neutral document on the matter.
Still, there are lots of interesting charts in the UK government’s latest report on the finance and economics of Scotland becoming a sovereign state, this time covering the dangers from banks…
…Although we think they missed one.*
Asian shares retreat, yen weakens, silver falls || BoJ meeting starts today || Apple paid almost no tax on $74bn || Oklahoma declared ‘major disaster’ || Goldman sells last of ICBC shares || Qatar buying into Deutsche Bank, VTB || Europe’s transaction tax plans to be diluted Read more
The sum and substance, in a couple of slides:
HQC stands for “High Quality Collateral”, and FTQ is “Flight to Quality”. Click to enlarge.
The charts are from a special presentation included in the fiscal Q2 report by the Treasury Department’s Office of Debt Management. Read more
Live markets commentary from FT.com
Yahoo buys Tumblr for $1bn || Portuguese banks fear ‘Cyprus virus’ || Chesapeake taps Anadarko executive Lawler as CEO || The yen gained as much as 1.1% || Chinese house price data raises overheating fears || Concern is growing that US banks are making risky corporate loans || King warns Osborne on Help To Buy risk || Cohen is subpoenaed || Silver is at its lowest price level in more than two and a half years || M&A lending remains meagre despite low interest rates || Co-op’s retiring chief skips meeting || Markets summary || FTAV’s latest Read more
JP Morgan’s always interesting Flows & Liquidity team have weighed in on the great Japanese yield panic. Japanese government bond yields have jumped since the Bank of Japan launched QE on steroids at the start of April and volatility has risen with them — the 60-day standard deviation of the daily changes in the 10 year JGB yield jumping to 4bp per day, the highest since 2008 (that’s longer term yields on the right for a bit of context):
That has understandably scared people who remember the volatility-induced selloff shock of 2003. From JPM: Read more
Asian shares rise || Yen strengthens on economy minister’s comments || Yahoo to buy Tumblr || Portuguese banks warn of Cyprus ‘virus’ || Chinese house prices rise || Fears grow over US corporate lending risk || Steve Cohen subpoenaed || Co-op’s Marks skips AGM || George Magnus on Chinese local governments Read more
Every now and then, we take a look at why the US housing comeback continues at a pace that has disappointed those of us who believed (and still hope) that a rebound in household formation will produce a self-sustaining acceleration in the broader recovery.
After the release on Thursday of disappointing housing starts but encouraging building permit numbers for April, we’ll do so again now. Start with this helpful chart from Capital Economics: Read more
Live markets commentary from FT.com
Bove vs Bloomberg, on JPMorgan || QEnd Game || EBA delays bank stress tests || Qatar bankrolls Syrian revolt || Dell profits below expectations || US farmland prices see double-digit rise || World’s largest container shipping company downgrades view on global trade || Tony Hayward appointed chairman of Glencore Xstrata || Citigroup FX traders move away from Bloomberg Messenger || Saudi princes deny laundering claim || S&P cuts Berkshire Hathaway || Yahoo spared potential $2.7bn in legal damages || Market update Read more
Elsewhere on Friday,
- The sadomonetarists of Basel.
- A case for regulatory forbearance toward banks.
- Abenomics and the supply of safe assets. Read more
FURTHER FURTHER READING
- Central bank competence is a technology. Read more
Dick Bove’s focus is on this?
The ex-Rochdale banking analyst, now at Rafferty, has found a hook in the Bloomberg terminal-snooping story for his latest note: Read more
Marc Ostwald at Monument Securities has spotted that an important theme is developing: a rise in the number of warnings about QE suspension and QE exit.
As he noted on Thursday regarding the recent warnings from the BIS and the IMF:
To my jaundiced eye, I would have to say that the warnings below from the BIS and IMF within one hour of each other today on QE, suggests that this is the beginning of the end for QE! Am not sure that everyone else will share that view, but this cannot be a simple coincidental warning shot that has no material consequences – watch this space!
This is one way to respond to the mess Euroland is in over who should make the calls for recapitalising banks…
The European Banking Authority is delaying its next banking stress test to 2014, to wait for both new asset-quality reviews and the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism (so is it to wait for Wolfgang Schaeuble?): Read more
FT Alphaville participated in a “Gold Bulls vs Bears” event hosted by the Association of Mining Analysts (AMA) on Wednesday.
The motion being discussed was:
Is gold’s role as a safe haven asset in the global financial system outdated and redundant and if the ubiquitous QE programs have been successful and the global economic upturn is confirmed, the price of gold will continue to struggle?