Posts from Monday Jun 9 2014

The Great Camp Alphaville Quiz, July 2 – a call for entries

Think you are smart and know stuff? Do you have two or three friends or colleagues who are similarly gifted?

Then enter our fab quiz on July 2 at Camp Alphaville, under canvas on the grounds of the Honourable Artillery Company, London. Read more

China property, structural faith edition

Further proof of a serious mismatch between the supply of and demand for charts about China property herein. This splurge is from Deutsche who seek to bring some optimism to the debate. Note, there’ll be less optimistic charting and more on the political subtleties from elsewhere nearer the bottom. Read more

Valiant Valeant

Bill Ackman, founder and showman in chief of Pershing Square is adding a new string to his bow on Monday morning as co-host of CNBC’s squawk box for an hour. He’s joined by Michael Porter, professor at the Harvard business School, to discuss the mooted deal where he has teamed up with Valeant to purchase Allergan and the changing structure of the pharmaceutical industry.

The two have been a CNBC double act before, but it seems a good a time as any to dust off the stale sell case against Valeant that is still floating around. In short, it is a company that only makes a profit after a lot of accounting adjustments.

In case you were wondering, this has been a painful one to be short for most of the last year or so. Read more

Markets Live: Monday, 9th June, 2014

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Ecuador tests appetite for return to bond markets after 2008 default || TSB shares price below book value || Sports Direct tries again with bonus plan for billionaire owner || British manufactures optimistic, says survey || Stocks up Read more

The recovery of global goods demand

This nifty chart from a recent Credit Suisse note shows the rejuvenated growth in global goods demand since roughly the start of 2013, a favourable sign for industrial production. Read more

Your post-Draghi carry trade

Ignoring the fact that the euro is acting more like a random walk model than usual, one seemingly obvious consequence of Draghi’s swarm attack is the euro’s growing attraction as as funding currency. As Barc said:

The structural selling of EUR vol post-meeting was the standout FX trade. We view this as further evidence that the current carry-supportive environment characterized by accommodative global monetary policy, historically low vol and strong equity market performance is likely to continue. It also supports our view that the EUR should be the funding currency of choice.

And from BoNYM’s Simon Derrick over the weekend: Read more

We know you’re waiting…

From JP Morgan Asset Management. Tantalisation comes from the end of the black line, which you will note has perked.

 Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Monday,

– Alibaba’s core values, now named the ‘Six Vein Spirit Sword’…

– Can the Great Recession ever be repaired?

– Has the Turing Test now been passed?

– There’s more than one kind of money demandRead more

The 6am London Cut

Camp Alphaville, July 2 in London: Drone flight currently being tested. (Details here)

Markets: Japanese shares hit three-month highs as better-than-expected economic data from the US, China and Japan drove Asian markets higher. Broad gains were driven by Chinese trade data published on Sunday that showed exports rose by a bigger-than-expected 7 per cent in May compared to the same month a year ago. Imports tumbled 1.6 per cent, against forecasts for a 6 per cent gain, causing the trade balance to nearly double from the prior month to $35.8bn. (FT’s Global Markets Overview)

S&P 2000 watch: Read more