Posts from Monday Jun 2 2014

The Closer


– Is Silicon Valley the Future of Finance? Read more

Charts du jour: fiscal drag per capita

Chart I-5 shows that the government sector has subtracted 0.4 percentage points from per capita real GDP growth over the past three years; whereas in a typical recovery, government spending on goods and services would have added 0.5 points to growth.

Last season’s adjustments?

More than a fashion faux pas from the Institute for Supply Management…

 Read more

Targeting your LTRO

Here’s Nomura playing ECB ahead of Thursday’s meeting at which — in accordance with the FT and the “always listen especially carefully to Peter Praet” theory — there’s an increasing expectation that some sort of targeted LTRO is going to be announced alongside some rate cuts.

We got the trial ballon, after all, and everybody does so love an LTRO. Read more

Markets Live: Monday, 2nd June, 2014

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

King of Spain to abdicate || Eurozone PMI falls || Border guards attacked in Ukraine || Infosys executive turmoil || IATA cuts airline outlook || European stocks firm Read more

Constitutional change in Spain

Something to keep in the back of your mind as once remote political events become everyday, is that the Catalan question still lingers.

Here’s Citi’s recent assessment of the local but in no-way endorsed by Madrid poll set for the Autumn:

Catalonian independence (due in November 2014).

 Read more

Crown contagion

Pope Benedict XVI (sovereign of the Vatican City State) – 2013

Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands – 2013

King Albert of the Belgians – 2013

King Juan Carlos of Spain – 2014

Contagion is facetious. But perhaps Europe’s monarchies have become as confused and listless as other once-impermeable institutions on the continent.

Or does the rash of abdications mean that they’re actually the only institutions who get the need for change? Read more

Portugal courts confidence

A tick up in sovereign bond yields has followed Friday’s late announcement by the Portuguese Constitutional Court that some budget austerity measures are a no-no, for violating principles of equality and proportionality.

Benchmark 10-year yields rose 7 basis points to 3.72 percent, according to Reuters, with weakness also seen in other euro zone peripheral government bonds.

The FT notes the need for tax rises and, while the country has exited the official bailout programme, there are still risks to a further package of rescue loans. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Monday,

– Spy vs hypocritical spy.

Captain McWhirr and the Chest.

– Hedge fund investors not as dumb as they look.

– Economists vs dentists, reduxRead more

The 6am London Cut

Camp Alphaville reminder: Peace, love, higher returns, robots, and Cardiff on stage with Lucy Kellaway this way.

Markets: “Upbeat China factory data and another closing record on Wall Street boosted Asian shares on Monday, while the euro held recent gains against the dollar but remained shaky ahead of a closely watched European Central Bank meeting.” (ReutersRead more