Posts from Monday Feb 10 2014

The Closer


- A question for Janet Yellen.  Read more

The economic fallout of Switzerland’s immigration vote

Passed along by Sebastien Galy of Societe General:

One core benefit of a high CHF was cross-border shopping in the Eurozone. Looking at the pattern of voting, one can forecast some significant slowdown at the Italian and German borders as has been the pattern in the past. Other consequences from the EU will take time to percolate. Read more

The world’s most successful hedge fund is not a hedge fund

Well done George Soros, who ended last year $5.5bn richer than he began it thanks to the performance of his Quantum Endowment Fund.

Each year LCH Investments tots the best hedge funds of all time as judged by actual dollar gains for their investors, after fees, and George is back in first place. Read more

Europe’s anaemic earnings story

There are no Googles and Apples in Europe. So Societe Generale’s global quantitative research team pointed out on Monday morning. They are not the first to say so, but the analysts use it to help explain why Europe’s share of MSCI World earnings has slumped to its lowest point since 1986.

 Read more

Pavlov’s eurozone

From the pixels of Christian Dargnat, chief exec of BNP Paribas Asset Management and president of EFAMA:

The European Reward System (ERS) is a process of annual certifications by the European Commission for sovereign bond issuances by Eurozone member states that adhere to a set of definitive budget criteria defined in advance. These Certifications allow a state to benefit from a budgetary transfer from other member states when higher interest rates are paid compared to the average European system of 100 basis points more or less.

The crisis of individual state debts in the Eurozone has lead to lower interest rates from debts issued by Germany and France, and elevate rates from Italy and Spain. Since 2010, Germany and France have benefitted from savings of approximately €30 billion and €10 respectively during their issuances. Inversely, one can observe an additional cost of around €53 billion for Italy and €30 billion additional for Spain.

 Read more

The multi-level endgame, part one: the FTC

OK, endgame might be premature, this Herbalife saga has plenty of life in it yet. But after more than a year of debate, and with stirrings of interest on Capitol Hill, we want to offer some conclusions and an actual solid prediction in this, the first of three posts.

The second will look at how the multi-level marketing industry walked its legal position out onto sand, and the third will deal directly with Herbalife’s claims of legitimacy. But this one is about the Federal Trade Commission and that forecast: we think the regulator, at some point this year, will rewrite its guidance to the industry on the way it analyses pyramid schemes.

Why it will, and the significance of such a move, is going to take a bit of explaining. Read more

Markets Live: Monday, 10th February, 2014

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Barclays pre-announces earnings, again || Asiana to buy 14 superjumbos from Airbus || John Laing to list Environmental assets || UK underwater || Stock markets good-ish Read more

BARC, pre-announced (Updated +1)

Weird this, so we’ll just share it for now….

Barclays to Announce Full Year Results on 11 February 2014 Read more

This is nuts. When’s the crash?

A case of a market requiring medication, perhaps, rather than the other way round?

From the FT’s Arash Massoudi in New York and Andrew Ward in London… Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Monday,

- The excluded middlebrow.

- Accounting identities are not causal and your opinion is not evidence.

- Basic income in the US? So closeRead more

The 6am London Cut

Markets: Asia-Pacific markets started the new week with a mix of calm and optimism after Wall Street shrugged off Friday’s disappointing US jobs report. (FT’s Global Markets OverviewRead more