Posts from Wednesday Dec 11 2013

The Closer


– David Wessell on the evolution of economic sanctionsRead more

A lending buddy needs capital, as well as trust [Update]

Meet Trustbuddy, the cutesy face of financial innovation, where peer-to-peer lending collides with payday loans.

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Bondholder Hypo-thermia, in Austria

These are some mountains in Carinthia, Austria. Bucolic.

That, meanwhile, is the logo of Hypo Alpe Adria, a regional lender rescued by the Austrian government in 2009, and which has now sprung another, €800m black hole… and it is just possible that the name is going to be as memorable as Amagerbanken or SNS Reaal for European banks’ bondholders. Potentially it may be a less than bucolic precedent for sovereign debt, too. Read more

The crude market in perspective

A picture, they say, is worth a thousand words. The same applies to some charts.

From the IEA’s latest market report on Wednesday:

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Markets Live: Wednesday, 11th December, 2013

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Lloyds fined £28m for ‘serious failings’ in sales practices || US budget negotiators on Tuesday night struck a bipartisan deal to set spending levels until 2015 || Volcker vote ushers in new world order for banks || EU finance ministers frame next big step towards banking union || China strips powers from central government ministries || JPMorgan files patent for Bitcoin-style payment system || RBS’ Nathan Bostock to join Santander || Santander, Spain’s largest bank, is to buy HSBC’s 8 per cent stake in Bank of Shanghai || BHP Billiton is to invest $4bn a year to step up output from its US shale reserves || First Group, the UK bus and rail group, is under attack from US activist || Cinda “raised HK$18.5 billion ($2.4 billion) in Hong Kong’s biggest initial public offering in a year || Markets  Read more

Secular stagnation and the bastardisation of Keynes

David Roche and Bob McKee at Independent Strategy have put out a strongly worded riposte to Larry Summers’ argument that the world may be beset by secular stagnation.

From the note, their main points are: Read more

The Fed’s options

At last December’s FOMC meeting, Ben Bernanke announced the new Evans Rule (forward guidance thresholds) framework at least one meeting before most observers had expected it.

This year, market participants and Fed reporters have differing predictions for what the same meeting will bring, but they aren’t ruling much out. Even if markets are probabilistically favouring certain policy moves over others, it’s unlikely that any announcement in particular will qualify as a surprise.

Here’s a summary of potential changes, each of which could be announced in isolation or in combination with others (and do note that “none of the below” is also very possible): Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Wednesday,

Skip the lawyer go straight to the prison consultancy.

– The right way to taper.

– Some rather less festive chartsRead more

The 6am London Cut

Markets: Riskier assets lost favour as the holiday season approaches and investors locked in gains. Equity markets were soft across Asia. (Financial TimesRead more