Posts from Wednesday Oct 2 2013

The Closer

FURTHER FURTHER READING

- What George Bailey can teach us about Quantitative EasingRead more

Silk Road: an (alleged) $1.2bn business

That’s one detail which pops out from an FBI complaint against one Ross William Ulbricht, “a/k/a Dread Pirate Roberts, a/k/a “DPR”, a/k/a “Silk Road”, the defendant”, released on Wednesday… Read more

Millisecond data disputes, part 2.0000000100

You’ll recall the recent brouhaha over whether the Federal Reserve’s decision to not ‘taper’ was transmitted to or received unfairly by high-frequency trading companies.

There’s been a new development, but first a quick refresher. Read more

Putting a value on activism, Sotheby’s edition

Dan Loeb has inked his pen with poison again. (Click through to read).

 Read more

Commodity inventory may soon get a whole lot darker

Here’s an unintended consequence of the government shutdown that the Republicans may not have envisioned: commodity market turmoil.

John Kemp of Reuters makes the excellent point on Wednesday that the shutdown, if it continues, will soon hit important government data statistics services such as the CFTC’s weekly commitments of traders report and even potentially the EIA’s weekly inventory figures. Read more

A coming bubble in whistleblowing?

There were a few gasps late on Tuesday when the SEC declared that it was awarding more than $14m to an unnamed whistleblower, whose information had helped the US authorities recover “substantial” investor funds in an unnamed case.

That’s quite a prize and will no doubt encourage other would-be latter-day bounty hunters. But there is evidence that the SEC really didn’t want to set this sort of precedent at all. Read more

Pawned out

Remember when it was all the rage to be a pawnbroker?

This was when the gold price was either soaring or stable. When there were more people happy to buy gold than lend against it, and when anyone prepared to lend against gold could generate a good yield.

Not so much anymore. Read more

Because the results of China’s local government debt audit just can’t come fast enough

SIV/ LGFV/ LGIV/ *shrug*

Whatever you choose to call the vehicles China’s local governments used to fund infrastructure when Beijing restricted financing (we are going with LGFVs here) they are very near the centre of Chinese debt fears. Which means it’d be nice to know how big they really are.

From Stephen Green at Standard Chartered (our emphasis): Read more

Markets Live: Wednesday, 2nd October, 2013

Live markets commentary from FT.com 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Letta appeals for support from Italy’s MPs || Tesco profits hit by Europe earnings and weakness in Asia || Gold steadies after steep sell-off || Americans flock to health exchanges || Banks turn uneasy on Help to Buy || Markets Read more

A rumble from the ceiling, self-harm watch

The markets have spoken and they are ambivalent: fine, you want to shut the government down, see if we care.

Nomura’s Jens Nordvig finds that stocks are up a bit, emerging market currencies doing well and bond yields slightly higher. However, there was movement on Tuesday that suggested the first nervous rearranging of assumptions around a US default.

In the absence of an agreement to raise the debt ceiling October 17 is the estimate for when emergency measures to fund the government are exhausted. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Wednesday,

- Productivity: better than working hard.

- If it happened there… the government shutdown.

- The two basic facts that should be in every shutdown story. Read more

The 6am London Cut

Markets: Japanese stocks wilted on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plan to raise consumption tax and introduce new fiscal stimulus. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index is down 0.7 per cent, a day after Mr Abe confirmed plans to raise the national sales tax and blunt any economic damage from it with a new Y5tn ($51bn) stimulus package. But he delayed providing full details of the stimulus package until later in the year. (Financial Times)

US takes ‘extraordinary’ measures to pay bills: “The US has begun implementing the “final extraordinary measures” to pay the nation’s bills ahead of an October 17 deadline for Congress to approve new government borrowings, Treasury secretary Jack Lew told congressional leaders on Tuesday.” (Financial TimesRead more