Posts from Tuesday Jul 30 2013

The Closer


– What’s an idea worthRead more

In Europe, the case for… optimism?

An early trickle of cautiously hopeful research notes about Europe’s economic situation has become a monsoon in the past week.

It follows the not-atrocious PMI and bank lending surveys, the ECB collateral rule changes meant to shift more credit towards the SMEs, the expectations-beating Spanish unemployment numbers, and a few other data points. Read more

Inflationistas and the global supply shock

Here’s a funny thing.

There was an amusing altercation between self-declared Austrian Peter Schiff (of “I see inflation everywhere” fame) versus The Money Illusion‘s Scott Sumner on Monday. It happened on Larry Kudlow’s show on CNBCRead more

Tchenguiz vs Grant Thornton

Is Vincent Tchenguiz the greatest legal mind of his generation? Almost certainly not. But his determination, evocative of a children’s game show contestant, is formidable.

Indeed, since being wrongfully collared by the SFO in early 2011 as part of their investigation into Kaupthing, the failed Icelandic bank, Tchenguiz has treated the hallowed workshop of British justice as his private version of Fun House, the 90s after-school TV hit that reflected a generation’s E-number giddiness. In the place of mulleted perma-enthusiast Pat Sharpe, a team of luxuriantly wigged QCs have watched Tchenguiz charge gleefully through the courts, snatching up legal goodies. Read more

Depositor defusal, Cyprus edition

Q. How do you approach a sleeping depositor in a Cypriot bank?

A. Very slowly: Read more

Russia’s LTRO (or LTROski, if you insist)

This is something we should have already picked up on. Russia’s central bank has its own LTRO going on and it had its first auction on Monday. Twas a little disappointing.

First, a catchup from Nomura: Read more

Markets Live: Tuesday, 30th July, 2013

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Barclays has revealed a £12.8bn hole in its balance sheet as it announced a £5.8bn rights issue || China’s central bank has injected money into the financial system for the first time in nearly half a year || Euro-area economic confidence jumps to highest in 15 months || Japan’s industrial production rate fell the most since the March 2011 earthquake || US cities edge towards hiring again || Italian banks’ loan books being quietly reviewed || JPMorgan Chase was expected to announce a settlement with the USFERC || Deutsche’s net income fell 49 per cent || UBS buys back toxic fund from SNB || BP revealed poor second-quarter profits || Appetite for subordinated bank debt grows || Markets wrap || FTAV’s latest Read more

Already-strong case for Yellen strengthens further, and a word about the inanity of “market” preferences

Not that we needed more convincing, but…

With the exception of certain commentators who get paid ostensibly to act like inveterate morons, nobody has doubted Janet Yellen’s record of analytical prescience in the past decade. Read more

A great China reckoning might not happen in quite the way you’d expect

A couple of weeks ago we asked some questions about what a further slowdown in Chinese growth might mean, and at what point it becomes a ‘crisis’. There’s a little bit of semantics and a vast amount of moving parts in answering this, but the point is that although the underlying picture of China’s economy looks extremely vulnerable, there are many ways in which a crisis might not erupt in quite the way — or at quite the speed — that some commentators seem to be expecting.

With that extremely broad-brush intro to a very complicated and murky subject done, we’ll point out a couple of people who, unlike us, are actual China experts and have provided some interesting perspective in the past few days. Read more

BARC, priced to go

You’ve got to admire the audacity of Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, BofA Merrill Lynch and Citi: they’ve agreed to underwrite the £5.8bn Barclays rights issue, pitched at 185p on a 1-for-4 basis. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Tuesday,

Fear of a female fed chief.

– Silicon Valley startup crowd is becoming an actual cult.

– Why wasn’t China’s last local government debt audit good enoughRead more

The 6am Cut London

Asian shares rise || Mixed Japan data on industrial output; unemployment falls || Barclays plans £5bn+ rights issue || Italian banks’ loans reviewed || JPMorgan’s $400m energy market settlement imminent || Subordinate bank debt issues rose sharply in H1 || US MMFs like European banks again || Pettis on the true China growth rate || European cross-border bank equity solution Read more