Posts from Tuesday Jul 23 2013

The Closer

FURTHER FURTHER READING

- Goldman would like to clarify some commodities mattersRead more

An update on US household formation

It’s one of the most important housing measures to keep an eye on — our previous thoughts on why are here and here.

There has been some improvement in household formation growth recently, climbing from an annual 450,000 new households from 2008-2011 to 521,000 new households in the year to March 2013. Read more

Commodity warehousing, the interest rate connection

There are three things that must be remembered when it comes to banks, trading houses and warehousing plays.

But even then, it only pays to store for as long as the commodity returns beat money-market returns. And that means, it only pays to store for as long as someone in the market is prepared to pay a premium for delivery of the commodity tomorrow rather than today. Read more

Understatement du jour, 3313% interest is probably unsustainable alleged Bitcoin ponzi scheme edition

Whether the scheme was legitimate or not, it was clear to everyone that an effective interest rate of 3313% was unsustainable and Pirate would have to reduce interest rates at some point.

Sharply spotted by “everyone”, then. Read more

No receive button

He is obsessed with trading, and he trades to win. If he cruises the Caribbean or flies off to London, an SAC advance team races ahead of him to set up trading screens…

- New York Times, A Fascination of Wall St., and Investigators, Dec 2012 Read more

Explaining the commodity warehouse trade with scripture

This is Joseph. He is a well known commodity forecaster.

 Read more

Japan’s lessons for China

In last week’s post about when does a growth deceleration become a crisis, we looked at the likely inevitability of change in China’s economic systems and growth rates.

While timing is difficult to predict, it does seem very hard to argue that the economic model can continue along with the social, political and legal status quo, all while maintaining recent high rates of growth. Read more

Markets Live: Tuesday, 23rd July, 2013

Live markets commentary from FT.com 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Japan upgrades economy outlook || Help-to-Buy scheme subsidises £1.3bn sales || Signs that CFTC will launch banks/commodities investigation || Netflix shares fell on outlook disappointment || SAC says Cohen never read key email || Portugal yields fell after PM comments || South Korea launching spot gold market  Read more

Fighting the taper in China

China is leaking. It’s probably America’s fault. China is, after all, the the most exposed to the quantity effect of liquidity withdrawal due to QE tapering and may have the most difficulty dealing with it.

From Nomura on Monday, for example:

Foreign exchange purchases by financial institutions dropped by RMB41bn, despite the high trade surplus of USD27bn and strong FDI inflows of USD14bn.

 Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Tuesday,

- The economy-energy feedback loop.

- Detroit’s not dead!

- Josh Brown gets his rotation vindication on. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Asian stocks rise as Li promises 7% growth floor || Japan upgrades economy outlook || Help-to-Buy scheme subsidises £1.3bn sales || Signs that CFTC will launch banks/commodities investigation || Netflix shares fell on outlook disappointment || SAC says Cohen never read key email || Portugal yields fell after PM comments || South Korea launching spot gold market Read more