Posts from Wednesday Jul 17 2013

The Closer


– The trial of Fabrice Tourre: silly, pettifogging, quixoticRead more

The raw cost of can kicking

Ok, we’ve been slow to get this up. That’s because…

But here, belatedly, is a paper from Achim Dübel of Finpolconsult: Creditor Participation in Banking Crisis in the Eurozone – A Corner Turned? Read more

A face that has seen far too many Humphrey-Hawkins hearings

Click for the C-Span feed for Ben Bernanke’s last appearance before the House Financial Services Committee, live at pixel time. They’re trying to fix the audio feed. But sadly not the House Rep preening.

Return of the ‘D’ word

Bernanke’s last Humphrey-Hawkins speech has been pre-released (and his live testimony was due to begin at pixel time). Most analysts are noting the return of dovish sentiment, not to mention the explicit re-emergence of the “D” word: Read more

Liborising oil-price reporting, encore

Hooray, the final version of the Iosco ‘Principles for Financial Benchmarks’ is out. It’s dull.

At least given the stakes: moving Libor — and a great deal of basic pricing in finance beyond it — towards a basis in actual transactions. Read more

By the way, China isn’t rebalancing

Stephen Roach recently wrote for Yale Global Online arguing that yes, rebalancing is happening, but the new leadership have it under control because they are enacting the necessary reforms to facilitate this transition.

A quick look at the composition of second quarter growth statistics suggests that is not happening — at least not now. Read more

When does a Chinese growth deceleration become a crisis?

It’s clear to everyone that something big is happening in China.

Double-digit growth is long forgotten and even high single-digit growth is above the consensus (for whatever that’s worth). The implications of this alone are quite massive and you could throw around any number of predictions about what it might mean for commodities, global imbalances, and more. Nomura sees a 30 per cent chance of growth falling below 7 per cent later this year, and Barclays are talking about the odds of growth slowing to as little as 3 per cent growth. Even entertaining the possibility of an outright economic contraction would not get you accused of being a crazed permabear these days. Read more

Markets Live: Wednesday, 17th July, 2013

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Barclays fined $470m over US power prices || UK MPC vote unanimously for no increase in QE as forward guidance takes centre stage || The EU is proposing to cap card transaction fees || China has vowed to step up its fight against bribery as premier Li says he would keep growth within limits, avoiding “wide fluctuations” || Yahoo’s sales fell 7% to $1.2bn in Q2 and the company cut its full-year revenue guidance || BHP’s iron ore production beats expectations || Chevron back in Argentina || Google eyes internet tv service || Markets wrap || FTAV’s latest Read more

Cut-out-n-keep guide to Bernanke’s testimony

Bernanke is starring today at the House Financial Services committee, and his comments there and at the Senate Banking committee tomorrow are probably his best communication opportunity for some time, as the FT’s Robin Harding points out — there being no July FOMC press conference scheduled. Plus, there has been all that, er, confusion and consequent attempts to clarify/smooth things over since the June FOMC meeting.

So we’ve assembled here some what-to-look-for highlights from the FT, WSJ, and Goldman Sachs, plus a few others. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Wednesday,

– Grieving for Glass-Steagall and the case against revival.

– Should house prices be a component in inflation?

– Noah didn’t forget about the liquidity trap in Japan. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Asian shares rise ex-Japan || Yahoo Q2 sales fell, guidance lower || China’s Li says ‘wide fluctuations’ will be avoided || EU plans to cap credit/debt card fees || Singapore’s exports fell sharply in June || China to become biggest wheat importer || Don’t expect Bitcoin ETF any time soon || On GSK and China’s messy healthcare system || Mark-to-market flaws  Read more