Posts from Monday Jul 8 2013

The Closer


End timesRead more

Godwin’s Law, lucrative firing precedent edition

Quite a silly reason to let someone go, this:

Jefferies Group LLC was ordered by a Hong Kong judge to pay its former Asia equity trading head Grant Williams about $1.86 million for firing him over a newsletter which referred to a Hitler parody video. … Read more

US productivity growth, back to form

Overall, we conclude that the U.S. productivity resurgence is likely to continue and is unlikely to revert to the sluggish pace of the 1970s and 1980s. This optimism reflects the observation that the fundamental drivers of the productivity gains—such as technological progress in information technology, a growing share of IT production, and a more competitive and deregulated economy—remain firmly in place. …

— NY Fed research note, December 2004

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The bond fund outflow, charted

The chart is from Credit Suisse Trading, which notes that June’s bond fund outflow of roughly $60bn represents the largest monthly fund flow — in or out, equity or bond — of any kind since records began in the early 1990s. Read more

A schematic of QE

Risk is on. The sun’s out (at least in London). Cue two fun slides from Julien Garran of UBS. Click to view.

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RWAs, straight outta Basel

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is back with another look at risk-weightings — that is, the risk weighting done by banks using their own models rather than the standardised BIS methods.

A new BIS/Basel paper focuses on the banking book, whereas a study published in January looked at the trading book. Read more

If this keeps up, we are going to need a better name than “Likonomics”

China’s State Council made public a guideline from July 1 for changing financing policy over the weekend, which is nice because we wanted an excuse to go looking for a replacement for “Likonomics” anyway. It just doesn’t… snap.

First, a summary of the guideline note from Nomura’s Zhiwei Zhang: Read more

Banks getting taste of own medicine from CCPs prove unable to suppress gag reflex

Ohhh, who’s being naughty now? Read more

Markets Live: Monday, 8th July, 2013

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Banks warn of risk at clearing houses || HTC’s profit drops 83% in Q2 || Perry Capital sues US Treasury over Fannie and Freddie dividends || French firms cut back on investments || ETFs close in record numbers despite industry boom || Glaxo probes tactics used to market Botox in China || Bovis rises to highest since August 2007 on H1 profit || Chinese cash squeeze to create credit hole || China life assurer Ping An buys Lloyd’s Building for £260m || Dollar Index reaches July 2010 high || Markets Read more

China slowdown predictions, metals and oil edition

Now that the possibility of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, or even an outright contraction, is getting some serious airplay, we can expect a ramp up in forecasts about what this will mean.

Here’s one from Barclays commodities analysts, Sudakshina Unnikrishnan and Jian Chang. They note that their China economics colleagues, having gifted us with the awkward ‘Likonomics‘ neologism, are also canvassing the possibility of a big drop in the country’s GDP growth rates. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Monday,

– The seductive genius of probability is that it removes the element of time.

– The three types of inflation fearmonger and what they’re doing now.

– Do the inflationistas actually believe what they’re sayingRead more

The 6am Cut London

Most Asian markets down, Japan boosted by yen || Osborne to bank bank reforms || Greece likely to get next bailout tranche || White House-Wall St trade clash looms || Portugal’s political crisis averted || US banks make massive paper losses || Spitzer to run for NY public office  Read more