Posts from Wednesday Jul 3 2013

The Closer

Happy Fourth of July!


Scarcity amid plenty – Part Deux

A while back we talked about the anomaly of backwardated curves amid a veritable abundance of US and global inventory.

Or more specifically, the irony that prices were falling even as curves were implying backwardation (usually a bullish signal reflective of tight supply). Read more

WTI and the taper effect

Lots of commentary is linking the mini-surge in WTI overnight, and subsequent WTI-Brent compression, to events in Egypt.

But it’s probably much more related to a shift in interest-rate expectations than anything to do with Middle Eastern tensions. Read more

The tax man, playing the press?

The British tax authority, HMRC, pushed out the following on Wednesday:

A senior London bank executive has been arrested on 3 July 2013 on suspicion of tax fraud.

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) investigators carried out the arrest of a 63-year-old man at a residential address in London this morning. The suspected fraud concerns a personal tax return, and is not related to the person’s employer.

 Read more

When ETPs destock en masse

Blackrock posted its latest ETF fund flow data, as compiled by IndexUniverse, for June 2013 and there were two stand-out points:

If you don’t trust Blackrock sponsored data, the message was very similar from Credit Suisse’ June ETP Trends note, which found: Read more

Canadian politicos, TBTF banks and Carney’s success

This guest post is by Howard Green, anchor of the flagship interview program at Canada’s Business News Network and the author of “Banking on America: How TD Bank Rose to the Top and Took on the USA”, published in January by HarperCollins Publishers Ltd.

As Mark Carney started work as the new Governor of the Bank of England this week, he arrived with the firm cushion of the Canadian banking system behind him. While he, Canada’s finance minister Jim Flaherty and top bank regulator Julie Dickson all deserve credit for guiding the country’s financial sector through the shoals of the global banking crisis, what’s often not mentioned is that they all owe a debt to those who came before them — and especially to former Prime Minister Paul Martin, who served as the long-running finance minister in the government of Jean Chretien. Read more

Markets Live: Wednesday, 3rd July, 2013

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Turmoil in Portugal || Egypt’s Morsi defies army || The Fed plans to introduce capital requirements that go beyond Basel III II Investors pulled a record $9.9bn from Pimco in June || China’s services sector PMIs improved slightly in June || Bolivian plane diverted amid Snowden hunt || Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Barclays, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse || Former FBI head to lead BP compensation probe || China will probably miss its modest 2015 target for shale gas production || Markets wrap || FTAV’s latest Read more

Don’t try this at home – central banker edition

Central bankers can do many things but they should never, ever attempt humour.

To illustrate the point we present the price action in the Australian dollar on Wednesday. Read more

A Cypriot bond glitch?

Yes, it’s time for a trip back into those Cypriot debt contracts.

Cyprus announced the results of its sovereign debt restructuring on some €1bn of domestic-law bonds earlier this week. The one the Troika wanted for — OH. Oopsy-daisy. Did FT Alphaville say sovereign restructuring. We meant “debt management operation”Read more

Portuguese turmoil

Here’s Portugal’s 10 year benchmark punching through 8 per cent to start your morning. We’d note it was sitting at 6.4 per cent on the 1st of this month…

To lose one cabinet minister is bad luck, to lose two in two days… means… time for another eurozone peripheral crisis? The resignation of Portugal’s foreign minister Paulo Portas yesterday has everyone worried, because of his role as leader of the CDS-PP, the junior partner in the governing coalition. If CDS-PP withdrew their support, the government would be left with 108 seats in a 230-seat parliament and uncertain prospects for scraping together a majority.

And all this less than two weeks before a troika delegation is due to start their next review of the economy as the lenders consider whether Portugal will get an easing of terms on its 2011 €78bn bailout, and receive the next €2bn instalment. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Wednesday,

– WTI outperforms.

– Winklevii innovation.

– The case of MBS volatility. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Asian stocks weaken, oil rises on Egypt fears || Morsi defies army || Portuguese PM pledges to stay on || Record outflows from Pimco’s flagship fund || Fed plans to go beyond Basel III || China services PMI shows lacklustre growth || Moody’s reviews major custody banks’ ratings || Former FBI head to lead BP compensation probe || Martin Wolf on China’s stall speed Read more