Re-setting ENRC (updated) | FT Alphaville

Re-setting ENRC (updated)

On Markets Live on Friday we offered some speculation on the level ENRC’s controlling shareholders might table to take the business private.

Once we’d zapped a few arbs amongst the ML Rabble, and got over an associated sulk, we offered a price: 340p

It’s wrong.

We’d assumed the Kazakh oligarchs were taking a 30 day average of the supposedly “undisturbed” share price, before the oligarchs were forced by the UK’s Takeover Panel on April 19 to confirm their interest in bidding.

But it seems they don’t go in for any of this 30 day VWAP nonsense in Astana. Oh no.

They’ve got a better choice of “un-disturbed” price than that: 224p (seen at the beginning of April) or 229p (just before the Panel statement).

They’ll add a notional premium of, say, 30 per cent. But either way the oligarch offer will probably not top 300p.

At Friday’s market price, this will be a nil premium offer.

A statement on a likely 28 day talks extension was expected after the London market closed.

UPDATE:

Statement on Panel extension here. The Oligarchs have only been given until June 3.

Separately, flashes from Reuters suggest the offer price will be around 270p