Posts from Friday Apr 5 2013

Are we entering the peak “end of an era” research era?

A small selection from our inbox the last few weeks.

First, this from Barclays on Friday, about copper: Read more

Cyprus, where the vicious circle stopped

In continental Europe, we are witnessing the rather extreme outcome that results from having the provision of liquidity divorced from an ability to regulate banks…

UBS analysts John Paul Crutchley and Alastair Ryan, 2009

 Read more

*Something* is happening in Brent…

Something is fundamentally changing in the oil market. To explain, consider the following.

The first chart for your consideration is the current Brent price (a reasonably large fall this week): Read more

Very large crude carrier negativity

Here’s a nice chart from Icap’s Global Shipping Analytics team demonstrating the current cash-burn the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market is experiencing:

 Read more

This brave new world

Cyprus may not be a template but as Pawel Morski said, the actual template is probably not going to look all that different.

We’ve already written a little bit about this and on Thursday Barclays published a note suggesting the Cyprus mess, plus the incoming common resolution framework, might wipe €15bn annually from the profits of Europe’s biggest banks. The draft of said framework is scheduled to come into play by 2015 with the bail-in tool, which had been delayed until 2018, perhaps being moved forward. We await clarity from European legislators this summer, if the summer ever arrives.

Concerning Barclays’ €15bn figure, it’s made up of a few different, but connected, elements. Read more

March payrolls: +88,000, unemployment rate down to 7.6 per cent

Here we go again? Worries about yet another spring slowdown are likely to proliferate as payrolls climbed just 88,000 in March. The unemployment rate declined slightly to 7.6 per cent, and there were also upward revisions to the prior two months.

From the reportRead more

Markets Live: Friday, 5th April, 2013

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Obama budget to offer program cuts, seek deficit deal || US non-farm payrolls due out today are expected to show a March gain of 200,000 jobs || Cyprus crisis to hit European banks hard || Autonomy deal takes toll at HP || Former MF Global CEO Jon Corzine helped to bring down the brokerage || Samsung Electronics on Friday said that first-quarter operating profit would be stronger than expected || Enron’s Skilling may get to leave jail early || U.S. FTC said to probe Macquarie || The scathing HBOS report is out || Markets roundup and FTAV’s latest Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Friday,

– Visualising Japan’s debt problem, inspired by Kyle Bass

– Spying on finance geeks.

– On immigrants, GDP and Martin Wolf  Read more

The 6am Cut London

Japanese stocks soar; HK falls sharply on bird flu fears || HBOS report scathing of bank’s chiefs || US unemployment expected steady || Samsung Electronics’ Q1 beats || HP chairman quits amid Autonomy deal fallout || The risks of the new BoJ strategy  Read more