Posts from Monday Mar 11 2013

The Closer


FT markets round-up: “After a slower start to the global session, stocks on Wall Street rebounded, pushing the S&P 500 closer to an all-time high. Throughout most of trading in Europe and Asia, investor optimism was alternately boosted by a surprisingly strong US jobs report but restrained by weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data. Still, gains picked up in afternoon trading in New York, leaving many leading stock barometers near record highs as hopes for worldwide growth prospects and continuing central bank support provide underlying demand for “risk” assets. The broad S&P 500 rose 0.3 per cent to 1,556, just 9 points shy of its record high close. The FTSE All-World index rose 0.4 per cent after the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, dipped just 0.1 per cent. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 retreated less than 0.1 per cent.” (Financial TimesRead more

One hundred and one pains in the SNS for the CDS market [update]

The nationalisation of the fourth largest bank in the Netherlands is proving to be a pain for the credit derivatives market. It’s only by virtue of the small number of contracts outstanding that referenced SNS Bank that this hasn’t been making more headlines and causing more consternation.

The Isda Determinations Committee has already declared that the expropriation of the subordinated debt of the bank was a restructuring credit event, and that there might be some auctions to determine payouts under the swaps. But it looks like that result of the auctions could prove a bit farcical, with buyers of protection walking away with very little compensation for the total loss experienced by subordinated debt holders. Read more

And the beat goes on, pari passu and sovereign restructuring edition

They’ve become interesting side-players in the saga principally starring Argentina — so it’s probably worth noting the latest from these two Caribbean sovereigns…

Belize has closed its restructuring with 86 per cent approval by its creditors: Read more

Deep thinkers?

A new type of list. Not billionaires or executive fat cats or expensive cities, but the top “thinkers” in the world.

Prospect magazine are holding a poll. You can vote for your top three here or you can use the comment box below to strike names off the Prospect long list… Read more

Markets Live: Monday, 11th March, 2013

Live markets commentary from 

Is the commodity sell-off overdone?

The latest commodity advice from Goldman Sachs suggests the current sell-off may be overdone.

Here are the key points from Monday’s note:

Shifting to near-term overweight as commodity sell-off overdone
Commodity markets declined sharply in February along with emerging market (EM) equities due to renewed concerns over China, which we believe is overdone. Although our price targets other than gold remain unchanged, this pull back has pushed our near-term return forecast from 2.0% to 6.0%, making commodities the asset class within the ECS coverage universe with the most robust near-term outlook. However, our 12-month neutral recommendation remains unchanged as our returns forecast is still a more subdued 3.0%, as we continue to remain structurally neutral on long-dated oil and commodity prices due to the structural supply-side response to persistently high prices.

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The bonus dash beginneth

As the FT reports on Monday, banks in Europe are rushing to redraft executive pay deals in order to comply with recently passed legislation capping bonuses at the amount of fixed pay, or twice that amount where approved by investors.

We submit for discussion an illustration plus narrative on the subject the bonus cap, penned by Kevin Roose. (H/T Barry Ritholtz) Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Good morning, New York…

Daylight Savings Time started on Sunday, moving clocks forward an hour. British Summer Time doesn’t begin until March 31st, so enjoy easier to schedule transatlantic conference calls while it lasts. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Monday,

– The banking hierarchy explained.

– Economic expansion, here we come.

– Where the money in IPOs is.  Read more

Xstrata 2.0 (or what Mick did next)

What now for Xstrata CEO Mick ‘The Miner’ Davis?

Bloomberg thinks it has the answerRead more

China’s sluggish, narrow-based recovery

A big stack of official Chinese economic data was released over the weekend and it paints a somewhat mixed picture of the country in 2013.

The short version is that some growth indicators were significantly weaker than expected, but others beat consensus forecasts — and consumer inflation appears to be on the rise again, even when the new year effect is discounted. This comes after strong export growth and weak import data surprised everyone late last week. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Asian shares mostly higher || Japanese machinery orders fall sharply || Bank commission says new UK rules too weak || Kuroda would consider buying derivatives || European repo markets shrink || Private equity payouts reach new record || The equities debate Read more

Who saw this one coming?

Prediction market site Intrade is off the air.

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