Posts from Friday Feb 22 2013

What took you so long, Moody’s?

Worth reading the full Moody’s rationale for (finally) cutting its credit rating for the UK from Aaa to Aa1: Read more

Words of caution for China bulls

Last year’s worries about the Chinese economy suffering a ‘hard landing’ eventually proved to be misplaced. Or should that be, worries that the government wouldn’t be able to engineer a soft landing, proved to be misplaced. Yet, while the economy seems to be on a more stable footing these days, there may be too much optimism that this will continue.

The consensus is for growth of a touch more than 8 per cent this year, roughly in line with what Beijing itself is forecasting. Yet Zhiwei Zhang and Wendy Chen, economists at Nomura, argue this is too bullish, and offer five reasons why they think 7.7 per cent is more realistic, with growth slowing to 7.3 per cent in the second half of 2013. Read more

Deficits: good marketing in a time of austerity?

Let’s take a moment for a high level overview of public debt-to-GDP ratios in the eurozone. If that’s not your idea of fun, well, you probably wouldn’t be reading FT Alphaville.

Courtesy of a note by Lasse Holboell W. Nielsen of the Economics Research team at Goldman Sachs (we may have added some kittens)… Read more

Are rates mispriced or are investors missing something?

The disconnect we’ve noticed between commodity fundamentals and forward rates appears to be popping up in other asset classes as well.

Priya Misra, rates strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, makes a very interesting point on Friday about what she sees in her sector. Read more

Markets Live: Friday, 22nd February, 2013

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Brussels turns up pressure over Libor || Relief over HP earnings buys Whitman time || Citi unveils pay plan for executives || Egyptian elections to start in April || ECB unveils €1.1bn profit on crisis bonds || US paints bearish outlook for grain prices || CFTC sues Nymex over information leaks || Markets: Growth-focused products are rallying Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Friday,

– How the eurozone crisis was about a buyer’s strike.

– Perhaps the singularity isn’t going to happen?

– European banks would be less scary if they were in the US. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Asian stocks edge up || European Commission looms over Libor banks || Shareholder rebuff to Rothschild paves way for Bumi split || HP earnings buy time for turnaround || Bankia’s epic loss Read more