Posts from Thursday Feb 7 2013

The Closer

ROUND-UP

FT markets round-up: “Markets struggled for a foothold, with many stock barometers pulling back from recent multi-year peaks, as a batch of earnings reports disappointed and European Central Bank warned about the outlook for the region’s economy. The FTSE All-World equity index, which last week hit a four-and-a-half year closing high of 235.7, fell 0.5 per cent to 232.9 as the FTSE Eurofirst 300 closed 0.3 per cent lower and Wall Street’s S&P 500 lost 4 points to 1,508. The single currency began with gains earlier in the session. But after the ECB left policy unchanged, and Mr Draghi delivered his prepared statement at the start of his press conference, the euro started to slide. The euro last traded 0.9 per cent lower at $1.3397.” (Financial TimesRead more

Why it matters that the Irish promissory notes are gone

And why this could well have been the best possible deal for Ireland.

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Noting the detail

Here’s the transaction doc from the Irish ministry of finance. Click through the pic for the full pdf:

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Let’s wait for a fall in stocks before declaring a great rotation

With all the excitement about ‘the great rotation’, it often feels that the debate focuses too much on analysing the recent flows, and less about the greed/fear dynamics driving them.

It’s been well documented that bond holders are increasingly frustrated by the miserable yields on offer in the fixed income markets, and are apparently flocking into the ‘cheap’ equity markets. We’ve already voiced our scepticism about the scale of this flocking. Yet what’s potentially also underestimated is the degree of skittishness by bond holders when the stock markets show signs of a wobble. After all, a lot of capital in fixed income got there after investors were burnt in the early 2000s. This loss aversion shouldn’t be underestimated. Read more

Prom note payments “gone” [updated]

Reuters flashes hitting now (we note):

07-Feb-2013 14:56 IRISH PM SAYS 20 BLN EUROS REDUCTION IN NTMA MARKET BORROWING REQUIREMENT OVER THE NEXT DECADE

07-Feb-2013 14:53 – IRISH PM SAYS IRELAND HAS REACHED CONCLUSION WITH ECB TO PUT IN PLACE MORE SUSTAINABLE PROMISSORY NOTE AGREEMENT

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They took note.

***DRAGHI “THERE IS NO MORE ELA”***

***WE THINK THAT’S A PROMISSORY NOTES ‘DEAL’***

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Lá Draghi

Draghi follows Mark Carney onto the stage… Read more

Markets Live: Thursday, 7th February, 2013

Live markets commentary from FT.com 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Rate-fixing scandal rocks three continents || Monte dei Paschi aided by covert loan || UK December industrial output rose in December || Sony hit by quarterly net loss || Credit Suisse raises cost-cutting targets || Dividend hurdle almost derailed Dell deal || Obama orders release of drone details || Murdoch shrugs off Liberty threat to BSkyB || Markets update: Struggling for momentum Read more

Thursday con Carney [updated with written evidence]

It’s Carney live. We know George Osborne is frustrated excited. Mark Carney, the next Governor of the Bank of England and the man Osborne once called “quite simply the best, most experienced and most qualified person in the world to do the job”, is in front of the Treasury select committee.

Here’s the live feed:

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Further reading

Elsewhere on Thursday,

- The simplicity of Chinese fraud.

- Are we too scared, or not scared enough?

- The fantasies that make DC insiders feel goodRead more

The 6am Cut London

Asian shares lower || Anglo Irish Bank liquidated || ECB meeting today || Mark Carney before Parliament today || Cantor Fitzgerald in late-stage talks with Seymour Pierce || PBoC signals inflation fear || Solvency II costs ‘indefensible’ || Boeing developing 787 battery changes  Read more

And we go live to the Dáil…

Click for the feed from the Irish parliament, where legislators have until the morning to pass an emergency bill liquidating Anglo Irish’s resolution company, unlocking a promissory note deal which might be on its way, before creditors of Anglo hit the LITIGATE button. Or something. (The entire prom note deal is needed by the Irish government before the notes’ next circa €3bn interest payment, because that’s what they promised the public.) Read more