Posts from Monday Jan 21 2013

The Closer

Barack Obama’s inauguration || The threat of competitive exchange rate devaluations || Atari files for bankruptcy || Greece tries to accelerate privatisation || Rahul Gandhi likely candidate for prime minister || European companies under pressure for overpriced acquisitions || Kim Dotcom launches new file-sharing site Read more

Overheard in the Long Room…

Not a member yet of Alphaville’s walled financial garden? It’s free, but you have to apply for membership.

Some reasons to do so… Read more

Can haz spredshetz

Spreadsheet errors sure are a fun, but serious, topic. The last time FT Alphaville dove into JPMorgan’s Task Force Report on its losses in synthetic credit thanks to the bank’s Chief Investment Office, we took you through the blunders around their shiny new VaR model (that didn’t work). This time we want to introduce you to the spreadsheets with valuation errors. Read more

Eurozone liquidity and menacing straws

Take one big pool of eurozone liquidity, insert straws and start sucking.

We’ve already opined on the chances that early-LTRO repayment will lead to a drain on excess-liquidty in the euro-area. But we argued that since it is unlikely to take more than about €200bn out of circulation, with consensus expecting about €130bn to be sent back, the effects should be muted.

But what if another straw is soon to be inserted?  Read more

China’s massive credit dependency

Friday’s announcement of new daily liquidity operations by the Peoples’ Bank of China has prompted a lot of speculation about what it means for monetary policy in China. The PBoC has historically set rates via tools such as reserve requirement ratios, and prescribing loan and deposit interest rates.*

Societe Generale’s economists believe this is a step towards interest rate liberalisation, and that the PBoC will increasingly use its liquidity operations and repo rates to guide policy rates, rather than prescribed RRR and deposit and lending rates. Read more

Markets Live: Monday, 21st January, 2013

Live markets commentary from FT.com 

The end of 200 years of expansion?

Tim Morgan of Tullet Prebon has been threatening this tome for a while. And now it has actually appeared…click to read…

 Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Japan probes Boeing battery supplier || West faces ‘decades’ of conflict in N Africa || Obama sworn in for second term || Lower Saxony blow for Merkel re-election || Huawei pledges openness to woo critics || Richemont misses estimates || Cameron’s EU speech to come this week || Markets: European stocks flirting with best levels in nearly two years Read more

Nope, China still has the same old problems

You may be feeling China overload after the latest round of GDP and other economic data out on Friday. We are. But it’s usually right about that moment of fatigue that a subject begins to become really interesting again.

The head of China’s statistics bureau declared on Friday that the workforce shrank in 2012; most forecasts hadn’t expected this to happen until 2015. So it’s probably a good moment to debunk any suggestion that the first quarter of year-on-year GDP growth means the Chinese economy is sailing into a calm new era where growth stabilises at about 8 per cent — not quite the 10 per cent of many recent years, but the new normal that reflects a more balanced economy. Read more

The D-list

With a h/t to Quartz, here’s this year’s Davos list.

(We’ve checked and we’re not on it. Suppose we’re just gonna have to start angling for a 2014 journo invite or start saving the SFr42,500 each needed for a WEF ticket. But fear not, we have the next best thing to a telepresence device in the form of our own special correspondent Mdm D. Deville. So for what’s really going on behind the snow and canapés be sure to follow her on Twitter at @DavosDeville.) Read more

It’s Mostly Fiscal (Transfer), all over again

We saw this coming from the IMF all the way back in March 2012 — when Greece’s PSI was just over, and vague notions of OSI were already in the air. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Monday,

- Can Bill McBride do it again?

- Greek inflation mystery?

- The role of beauty in China. Read more

Location, Location, Location

Time for some property porn.

It comes from the 2013 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey – a piece of work often quoted by bubble hunters and rubbished by the property bulls who babble on about flawed methodology. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Snow raises fears of UK triple dip || Asian shares mixed || Allianz GI to debut UK infrastructure fund || China Vanke shares soar || Nokia Siemens Networks in first public debt issue || Dreamliner investigations widen || The Bernanke replacement contenders  Read more