Posts from Friday Nov 23 2012

Booking bondholder flights to Buenos Aires?

It’s fair to say that many of those following Argentina’s grand bond holdout battle have been simply flattened by this week’s turn of events.

(Sometimes, literally so.) Read more

Rising tensions before Catalan vote

The Catalan elections are on Sunday, and perhaps unsurprisingly there’s been an escalation of tensions ahead of the vote. The question is how this might benefit the CiU, the main separatist party. Read more

A reason to be bullish short-term USTs

What we love about Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s ‘Liquid Insight’ team is that when they make calls on Treasuries and rates, they account for the impact of collateral markets and the repo effect — not to mention the general shortage of safe assets.

Take the following chart from their latest note: Read more

Grice moves on

And the Societe Generale strategist (who says he will “resurface on the buy side early next year”) is going out in style — taking a leaf from the book of the order Blattodea.

From Dylan Grice’s last Popular Delusions note:

All good things come to an end, sadly. So it is with my time here alongside Albert, Andy and the rest of the gang at SG. I’m signing off, checking out, moving on to pastures new. It’s been a wonderful time. But after three years of trying to sound clever it’s time for me to do something altogether more difficult, and actually be clever. So early next year, I will join a small but outstanding investment practice. Naturally, I hope it will be a great success. But what makes a great success? Since there are few more accomplished species on earth than the lowly cockroach where better to start looking for an answer?

 Read more

Randomness by Fool

Not really, of course. Everyone at Alphaville is a fan of Nassim Nicholas Taleb and his gnomically sweeping ecophilosophy. We’re also more than willing to take a bit of constructive criticism on the chin.

For exampleRead more

Markets Live: Friday, 23rd November, 2012

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Progress made on breaking EU deadlock || Stores lure Black Friday bargain hunters || Mersch joins ECB board || China stops filling strategic oil reserve || Fitch: Sony at greater risk than Panasonic || Walmart suspends India employees || Markets update || Opec’s new foothold in Asia || Sohn conference cheat sheet || Poker with Judge Griesa || Magnus on China’s investment cliff Read more

Opec’s strategic foothold in Asia

First there was plain old commodity inventory.

Then “in-the-ground” inventory — funded by pre-pay deals — started to make an appearance. Most recently, there’s even been the tendency towards “just-in-time” inventory in energy markets. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Friday,

Why is housing such a popular investment? A psychological take.

– Steve Cohen as ‘Don Quixote fighting windmills‘.

– Hedge funds still struggling to shake off 2011 losses. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Asian shares higher || Progress made on EU budget deadlock || Argentina responds angrily to NY bond ruling || Anglo American shareholders want asset sales, cost cuts || Rothschild raises $270m for Bumi proposal || Dalman to take on executive duties at ENRC || Banks tout idea of sharing bond data || Olam says it can withstand ‘stress’ || Why milk costs €1.50 a litre in Greece Read more

Poker with Judge Griesa, part two

Let’s say you took part in Argentina’s original, 2005 debt restructuring.

You exchanged your luckless bonds for securities worth around 30 cents of your original dollar. You took your lumps – and you checked, very carefully, the complicated payment structure designed to ensure the Republic can’t stiff you in the future. Read more