Posts from Friday Nov 9 2012

Woot! RoRo is fading.

This is from RBC’s Adam Cole who has been trying to get WOOT (World of One Trade) into the FX psyche for a while. So, l33t research indeed, but RoRo was always gonna be a tough meme to contend with.

Anyway… Cole’s point is that that there are more currency pairs uncorrelated to equities right now than at any time for five years. In fact, he says, correlations have started to break down to the extent that a majority of G10 currency pairs were uncorrelated with equity returns over the last three months. Another false dawn or an actual end to the dominant RoRo paradigm? Read more

Give me Basel III, but not yet

Fresh from the Fed. (And FDIC, and OCC) Read more

How much are the new short-selling disclosures missing?

Short-sellers must now notify the market when a net short position on a European stock reaches 0.5 per cent of the issued share capital of the company concerned and again at each 0.1 per cent increment after that. Then the information on UK stocks goes on the FSA’s website (in a particularly hard to use format).

But disclosures so far indicate that the new rules are missing a significant chunk of short-selling activity. Data from Markit suggests that, for example, Lonmin has around 17 per cent in undisclosed short interest. Read more

A €5bn Greek bond imminently falling due? Did we mention we have deckchairs by this abyss?

So, we’re going to the wire once again in the now traditional dance between Greece and the troika. As the FT reported on Thursday:

Eurozone leaders face a new round of brinkmanship over Greece’s €174bn bailout after international lenders failed to bridge differences on how to reduce Athens’ burgeoning debt levels, pushing the country perilously close to defaulting on a €5bn debt payment due next week.

 Read more

Markets Live: Friday, 9th November, 2012

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Obaba’s leads push on fiscal cliff || Which would trigger US recession || Eurozone brinkmanship on Greece || Hu Jintao reasserts party’s grip || Harvard-educated Communists maneuvere for power || China data raise slowdown concerns || Credit Ag’s shares down after results || Markets update || Jersey Offshore || Argentina’s holdouts || Spain’s fantastical forecasts Read more

Jersey Offshore, HSBC edition

Early viewers of what promises to be a trashy little mini-series with a stale mix of guns, drugs, sun-soaked beaches and tax cops, were left with one stand-out question on Friday:

Does HSBC really have just 4,388 Brits holding offshore accounts on this Channel island? Read more

Argentina, holdouts, and finding a formula

As the Financial Times put it, “[s]ince last week’s US Appeals Court ruling went against Argentina, there’s been a lot of comment about how the country could try changing the trustee or payments structure of the bonds which came out of its 2005-2010 restructuring.” (Attachment G.) It is clear that Argentina now is in the process of trying to render the Equal Treatment Orders ineffective and will employ and exploit any delay tactics necessary to evade this Court…

 Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Friday,

– It’s a “slope”, not a “cliff”, and predictions thereof.

Let’s zoom back up and look at Greece.

– Australian banks: a lot like teenagersRead more

The 6am Cut London

Asian markets lower || China’s October inflation lower than expected || HMRC ‘investigating HSBC’ over Jersey accounts || UK threatens to veto EU banking union || Greek aid payment might not be agreed next week || Bank of Korea holds || The ‘dangerous illusion’ of technological progress Read more