Posts from Thursday Oct 25 2012

The Closer


Stocks crawled forward under the earnings rock. The S&P 500 rose 0.3 per cent, closing at 1,412.97. Some 244 of the companies in the index have so far reported earnings, with only 36.3 per cent beating revenue estimates, compared to a 62 per cent historical average (Reuters). Read more

He isn’t the Prime Minister, he’s a very naughty statistician

Andrew Dilnot CBE, chair of the UK statistics authority, writes to David Cameron…

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“Misunderstanding Financial Crises”, a Q&A with Gary Gorton

Read enough books and economics papers about the recent US financial crisis, and at some point you might notice something odd.

Most of them are about the factors that made the crisis and subsequent recession so profound and enduring — excess leverage, deregulation, lax lending standards, the rise of securitisation, blindness of the rating agencies, fraudulent bankers — but very few of them are about what actually started the crisis. Read more

Spain’s funding problems are over

Eurozone officialdom routinely sees the eurozone itself through a rose-tinted lens.

Just listen to Francois Hollande, or any number of Spanish officials, such as Inigo Fernandez de Mesa, the country’s Treasury minister, who was talking to Reuters on Wednesday (emphasis ours):

“As we speak, my funding needs for this year are almost covered, at 95 percent, and my intention is to start funding the Treasury for next year so that we can start the year with our homework done,” said Fernandez de Mesa, who reports to Economy Minister Luis de Guindos.

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Japan’s very own fiscal cliff

And this one might prove more precipitous than its famous US cousin.

From the FT’s Ben McLannahan:

In an echo of worries in the US over the $600bn of spending cuts and tax increases due to take effect in January – the so-called fiscal cliff – Japanese politicians are at loggerheads over a bill that would allow the government to borrow the Y38.3tn ($479bn) it needs to finance this year’s deficit.

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Markets Live: Thursday, 25th October, 2012

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Gupta gets two years in jail || Santander profit plunge || Japan’s fiscal cliff troubles || Obama’s Hispanic vote || Vale’s Guinea project on hold || Market update Read more

What inflation?

From the ECB’s September update on monetary developments in the euro-area released on Thursday:

That’s euroland M3 – the broad money supply measure — coming in below expectations and dropping again to 2.7. Really brings to mind Draghi’s warning to the Bundestag that “In our assessment, the greater risk to price stability is currently falling prices in some euro area countries”, doesn’t it? Read more

“Cancelling” QE debt

There’s something we’ve never quite got about this debate on “cancelling” all the government bonds acquired by central banks under quantitative easing, either for helicopter money or for debt relief.

Now the Governor of the Bank of England has weighed inRead more

Those UK GDP figs… (with added Olympics Statistical Special!)

It’s up 1 per cent in the three months to September. No wonder he was smiling…

The market was expecting a 0.6 per cent quarter on quarter bounce following nine months of contractionRead more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Thursday,

– The nature of UK austerity.

– Why Bernanke complicates Wall Street’s view of Romney.

– Myths about consumption inequalityRead more

The 6am Cut London

Asian markets break four-day run of declines || Walker plans clean sweep of Barclays board || Two UBS traders in Singapore suspended over Libor || Admiralty Arch sold to Spanish investor || New Visa CEO comes from JP Morgan || Best Buy warns on profits and sales || Premature corporate earnings releases Read more