Posts from Friday Oct 19 2012

The Weekender

This week on FT Alphaville,

- Iron ore prices made a comeback. (Did the Chinese economy?Read more

Early FOMC preview

Compared with the last FOMC meeting, the one next week could be a snooze.

It’s a two-day meeting, but there won’t be a presser afterwards or an updated Summary of Economic Projections when it ends. Just a statement. Read more

Slovenia puts the ‘EM’ in EMU

Small but beautifully shaped country seeks bond investor for long term relationship. Must be open-minded about banking crises and like walks along the Adriatic coast.

Slovenia was in the market on Friday — with $2.25bn of bonds. That’s greenbacks, not euros, despite belonging to the currency union. Read more

Foreign buyers and the OMT

Compare:

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Oil production costs in Goldman’s “flatter” world

Goldman’s analysts, long-time oil bulls, are now expecting a “flatter oil price environment” in the next few years. In other words, they think prices in 2013 and 2014 will be “marginally” lower than current spot levels, and drift down to $85 by 2016.

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Another fiscal cliff chart

This one from Goldman economists, showing the projected impact on GDP growth in each quarter from the various provisions. Click to enlarge.


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Were Hollande and Merkel at the same summit?

Listening to the comments of the various European leaders this morning, you’d be forgiven for thinking that they were attending different summits yesterday.

Francois Hollande, as quoted by the FT (emphasis ours):

The topic of this summit is not the fiscal union but the banking union, so the only decision that will be taken is to set up a banking union by the end of the year and especially the banking supervision.

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The return of the Greek buyback (boondoggle)

We’re feeling very nostalgic. From the WSJ:

Euro-zone countries are considering a proposal that would see Greece cut its debt by buying back bonds held by private creditors at a discount.

The exercise–one of a number of options being studied–could persuade the International Monetary Fund to sign off on a loan payment desperately needed by the debt-laden country and keep Greece’s bailout on track for the medium term, two officials with direct knowledge of the discussions said Thursday.

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Markets Live: Friday, 19th October, 2012

Live markets commentary from FT.com 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

EU leaders strike deal on bank oversight: A timetable to set up a single eurozone-wide banking supervisor run by the European Central Bank over the course of next year has been agreed upon by Europe’s leaders, a rapid pace that marks a victory for a French-led group that had pushed for a quick first step towards a banking union for the single currency, reports the FT. But at an EU summit that stretched into the early hours of Friday morning, leaders failed to agree on the second key step in the process: when the eurozone’s €500bn rescue fund will be able to start injecting cash directly into failing European banks, giving in to German resistance. Read more

Bank of Scotland fined £4.2m for being idiots

The final notice on this speaks for itself (at length). The FSA has fined Bank of Scotland for screwing up the mortgage records for 250,000 Halifax customers.

More than 20,000 of these were…how do we put this… Read more

Happy Black Monday Friday to you!

Here’s a tip — if you’re naming a memorable event, try not to put the day of the week in it. It’s awkward when it comes to anniversaries. Let us nonetheless take a moment to pause and reflect, with Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid:

25 years ago today the financial world went into paralysis as Black Monday struck stock markets around the globe. For context the DOW dropped 22.61% that day (the biggest % down day in history) or 508 points to 1738.74. I wish I’d have invested my paper-round money in the market at the close. Instead I was saving up for a new shiny Walkman

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Half time at the summit

And we have some very small bits of progress. And, naturally, plenty of kinks. Here’s a handy run down from JP Morgan’s Alex White: Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Friday,

- Reinhart-Rogoff vs. Bordo-Haubrich (with grandstanding by John Taylor)

- China must learn that size is only so important.

- Excess capacity in commercial shipping… run aground and chipped into pieces for scrap steel.

- Steve Keen goes job huntingRead more

The 6am Cut London

Agreement struck on rapid creation of eurozone banking supervisor, but direct bank recap timing unclear: The single supervisor run by the ECB will be setup over the course of next year, a rapid pace that marks a victory for a French-led group that had pushed for this first step to be taken quickly. But at an EU summit that stretched into the early hours of Friday morning, leaders failed to agree on the second key step in the process: when the eurozone’s €500bn rescue fund will be able to start injecting cash directly into failing European banks, giving in to German resistance. (Financial Times)(Economist)(Wall Street Journal)(Reuters)

Asian markets slipped on poor US tech earnings, but losses were limited by hopes raised by China’s GDP data on Thursday, and stronger than expected US manufacturing data. Most losses were regained after news of the eurozone agreement. (Reuters)(Financial Times)(BloombergRead more