Posts from Friday Oct 12 2012


This week on FT Alphaville,

– Izzy waxed philosophical about the future of markets… Read more

A Grexit delayed if not denied

Citi are pushing that fateful day back:

We have held the view, since May 2012, that a Greek exit from the euro area (“Grexit”) in the next 12 to 18 months is a high-probability event (90%) which we assume, for the sake of argument, would happen on January 1 2013. We are now cutting the probability of Grexit over the next 12-18 months to 60% and judge that this event will probably happen later than we previously thought, most likely in 1H 2014.

A cynic might suggest they were getting the jitters as deadline approached but lets hear them out (our emphasis). Read more

What’s the average adult worth?

The answer is $49,000, according to the Credit Suisse global wealth report, based on their estimate that global household wealth in mid-2012 totaled $223 trillion at current exchange rates (emphasis ours).

Looking ahead, and assuming moderate and stable economic growth, we expect total household wealth to rise by almost 50% in the next five years from USD 223 trillion in 2012 to USD 330 trillion in 2017. The number of millionaires worldwide is expected to increase by about 18 million, reaching 46 million in 2017. We expect China to surpass Japan as the second wealthiest country in the world. However, the USA should remain on top of the wealth league, with USD 89 trillion by 2017.

Between mid-2011 and mid-2012, only China and North America increased their net worth, and India and Europe saw the sharpest falls, according to the report. The world as a whole had a 5.2 per cent fall in household wealth. Read more

What whale?

Only one mention of “Chief Investment Office” in JP Morgan’s Q3 earnings release. And Jamie’s calling the turn in the US housing market… Read more

Markets Live: Friday, 12th October, 2012

Live markets commentary from 

Happy 20th birthday, Footsie 250

Mid-caps have more than quadrupled, in nominal terms, since FTSE introduced this barometer in 1992. Click to enlarge…

And the top FTSE 250 constituent is…

Travis Perkins, of course! Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

VP debate energises US election campaign: Joe Biden and Paul Ryan energetically attacked each other’s policy platforms during a wide-ranging vice-presidential debate covering issues from abortion to Afghanistan, offering voters two starkly different visions for America just 26 days before the election, the FT reports. Biden, the sitting vice-president, achieved his goal of putting forward a passionate case for a second term for the Democratic team, a week after President Barack Obama confounded supporters with a lacklustre performance during his first debate with Mitt Romney, his Republican rival for the White House. Read more

Portugal, maybe on the mend

The IMF reckons Portugal’s economy will shrink 1 per cent next year. That compares with an estimated contraction of 3.7 per cent this year and a 1.7 per cent fall last year. Meanwhile, the OECD has just declared recession in Portugal to be ‘losing intensity.’ Read more

IEA on the new oil paradox — anything but normal

From the IEA’s latest oil market monthly report:

The paradox is that US product stocks have been falling faster than normal and European refiners have been running flat out despite tepid product demand in both markets. Hurricane disruptions and a string of refinery glitches (especially on the West Coast) are only part of the US story. In both regions, the bottom line is that exports have become a key driver of refining activity and profits, not just the outlet for surplus product that they used to be. To wit, in Europe even gasoline cracks have staged a dramatic recovery, despite vanishing demand at home.

 Read more

EU will win 2012 Nobel Peace Prize.. [Update: it actually happened. Actually]

An enormous hat-tip to Vilde Helljesen

The press release is here and the unsurprisingly politicised bottom line from the committe is:

The work of the EU represents “fraternity between nations”, and amounts to a form of the “peace congresses” to which Alfred Nobel refers as criteria for the Peace Prize in his 1895 will.

 Read more

Turner’s cover letter

FSA chief, Lord Turner, gave a *cough* wide ranging speech last night in the City. From the FT:

Although the FSA chairman never mentioned that he had applied to replace Sir Mervyn King as a potential governor of the Bank of England, the speech highlighted his willingness to take bold and unorthodox action to promote growth.

Lord Turner, Paul Tucker, a deputy governor, and Sir John Vickers are among the leading candidates to take charge of the BoE, which will have expanded powers next year. Paddy Power, the bookmaker, puts even odds on Mr Tucker. Sir John is at 4-1 and Lord Turner 9-2.

Here’s the full thing for those who want it. And some excerpts if you don’t (with our emphasis): Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Friday,

California vs BLS? Via the conduit of Henry Blodget.

– The world faces yet another 1937 moment on austerity.

A history of poor neglected iron ore.

– Another possible US jobs data culprit. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Japan’s Softbank is in talks to acquire a controlling stake in Sprint Nextel: People familiar with the talks expect Softbank to take a stake of up to 75% in Sprint. The deal may involve Sprint first issuing new shares equivalent to about 20% of the company to Softbank. It would give Sprint much-needed help competing with bigger rivals AT&T and Verizon. (Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal)

Coke departure a blow for Athens market: Coca-Cola Hellenic has decided to move its headquarters from Athens to Switzerland to escape funding difficulties in Greek capital markets. It is the world’s second-biggest Coca-Cola bottler, operating in 28 countries, and accounts for about one-fifth of the total market capitalisation of the Athens stock market. (Wall Street JournalRead more