Posts from Monday Oct 8 2012

IMF lowers growth forecast

The IMF has reduced its previous forecast for global growth this year from 3.5 to 3.3 per cent, and for next year from 3.9 to 3.6 per cent. Read more

The Closer

FT markets round-up:”Global stocks and other growth-sensitive assets started the week on the back foot as investors remained concerned about the global economy in spite of Friday’s upbeat US jobs data. The dollar index rose 0.3 per cent, helping push gold down $6 to $1,774 an ounce. Bullion last week hit $1,796, its highest in 11 months. Industrial commodities were mostly weaker, with copper off 1.5 per cent to $3.72 a pound. Read more

Q3 earnings won’t be good, but might not matter much

We suppose any number of things could be driving recent price swings, with the macro backdrop still playing a dominant role — QE3, heightened expectations of stability in Europe, better economic indicators in the US. And although third quarter earnings are expected to contract, analysts are expecting a decent rebound in the fourth quarter. Global growth is slowing, but the US recovery appears to be on sounder footing than was widely understood even at the start of the summer, when there was sporadic talk of possibly falling back into recession. Companies may have been too dire in their earlier guidance, and investors/algos realised it.  Read more

Local currency bonds: (probably) not an EM bubble

From Standard Chartered:

Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less that USD 150bn in March 2009, foreign holdings of local-currency government bonds in emerging markets (EM) are now well above USD 500bn.

Bubble? Read more

South Africa, strikes and the rand

It’s hard to look at the labour situation in South Africa and not be alarmed at how it’s already impacting the wider economy. What started as pay dispute at Impala Platinum, has spread across the country’s mining industry, including a massacre at the Lonmin mine, and strikes (many illegal) are now impacting transportation and the auto industry. Moody’s has already downgraded the sovereign debt, partly because of the social unrest. Read more

Target2 chart du jour

Look, look: it’s Target2 imbalances… rebalancing… slightly.

 Read more

Why is Merkel visiting Athens on Tuesday?

Serious question.

What’s the justification for creating a three-ring security circus in the Greek capital, a general strike and quite possibly a major riot? Read more

The SNB’s bond buying: now with more context

So much for the one sided debate about the Swiss National Bank’s bond purchases. JP Morgan’s Flows and Liquidity team argued over the weekend that while it is true that FX reserves are absorbing a significant part of the supply of high-quality AAA/AA bonds , they are still taking up less than half of the issue. And significantly reserves managers are big participants in securities lending… which includes the SNB.
 Read more

Markets Live: Monday, 8th October, 2012

Live markets commentary from FT.com 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Economic recovery ‘on the ropes’: The US is the brightest spot in the world economy, as another global recession threatens, according to the latest Brookings Institution-Financial Times tracking index, the FT reports. Tiger (Tracking Indices for the Global Economic Recovery) shows the world’s recovery to be “on the ropes”, despite the best efforts of the world’s central banks to boost demand. Read more

Iranian rial-ity, or when Gresham’s law goes awry

Almost everywhere, the fall of the Iranian rial is being interpreted as a huge problem for the incumbent Iranian regime — one that could bitterly undermine economic stability in the country.

Ehad Mostaque of Religare Capital Markets, however, posits a different view. Read more

We hope you got your applications in…

The window to apply for Mervyn’s seat at the Bank of England just crashed shut. Gus decided against making a pitch and Glenn is looking shaky. Leaving Tucker in the lead, with Turner in second place… unless somebody has ghosted in under the radar, that is. Read more

FT Alphaville, refreshed – the video

On Saturday, we rolled out our new look. There are also some new bits of functionality. To help familarise you, and point out a few old things you might not have known, we prepared this video.

(Plug in some earphones or turn on the speakers if you’d like to hear the background music. Izzy thinks the first track is ‘Victorian techno’. And then there’s a banjo at the end…) Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Monday,

- China is back. And down.

- Chavez wasn’t the only election winner.

- RoboRomney is here. (H/T umanwizard of Reddit). Read more

FT Alphaville, refreshed

Notice something different?

We hope you like our fresh livery and new functionality. The changes we’ve made are not drastic. After all, FT Alphaville wasn’t broken, and frankly it’s the content and the discussion that matters most. We do, however, have some nifty additions you can play with if you want to.

Here are the Top 5 highlights: Read more

The 6am Cut London

Asian stocks fell as China resumed trading after a weeklong holiday and ahead of a meeting by European finance ministers today. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. (Bloomberg)

Global economy threatened by new recession: The Brookings Institution-Financial Times tracking index shows economic data and confidence indicators have deteriorated since earlier in the year across the Group of 20 leading developed and emerging economies, apart from the US. (Financial TimesRead more