Posts from Friday Sep 21 2012

US housing update

If you haven’t been reading your daily Calculated Risk, the analysts at CreditSights have a useful roundup of this week’s mostly positive US housing data:

There was a swathe of data on the U.S. housing market out this week, which continued tounderscore that the nascent real estate recovery is becoming more convincing, although inabsolute terms it remains a soft recovery. Read more

Presidential optics vs the tax code

We’re scratching our heads.

The Romneys donated $4,020,772 to charity in 2011, amounting to nearly 30% of their income. Read more

Credit rollovers & rally monkeys

In the States, we’re still picking our jaws off the floor from the lowest CCC-rated issuance yield on record, earlier this week.

In Europe… Societe Generale’s credit strategists have an interesting round-up: Read more

Morgan Stanley on fundamentals versus monetary policy

Central bankers in the US and Europe may think they’re engaging in policies accommodative to economic growth, but two can play in this game of acronyms! The team at Morgan Stanley fights letters with letters, in a note released on Friday (emphasis ours):

Global central banks have done all in their power to rescue the financial markets from the doldrums. Markets have clearly noticed their unwavering intent to “do whatever it takes” and the open-ended nature of the response. Notwithstanding this central bank resolve and despite QE, OMT, et al., we remain strategically cautious. Our stubbornness is quite simple – fundamentals. On the other side of QE and OMT are IP, PMI, and GDP, which continue to look worse, not better. As such, the key to our call is very simple: we think poor fundamentals will trump central bank action. Time will tell. Read more

Glenstrata extends

So much for D-Day in the unending saga of the Glencore-Xstrata tie-up.

Hot off the RNS feed on Friday: Read more

QEs compared

Yes, yes, this QE ain’t the last QE and heaven knows the outcomes aren’t straightforward and depend on a shed load of variables. But a comparison is always worthwhile — or, at least, fun. So, here’s a relatively straightforward one from Deutsche Bank’s Alan Ruskin comparing the effects of QEs 1, 2 and 3.

First on the dollar index (try to spot the profit taking before the downward trend resumes): Read more

Property porn, as it’s known in the trade

A chart from Jones Lang LaSalle about who’s investing in London property:

 Read more

Whistleblowing incentives just got international

This is a guest post from Clive Howard, a senior principal lawyer in RJW Slater & Gordon’s employment department. His high-profile cases include acting for Paul Moore in a whistleblowing case against HBOS, and Brodie Clark, former head of the UK Border Force, against the Home Office.

Whistleblowing incentives just got international Read more

Markets Live transcript 21 Sep 2012

Live markets commentary from 

Reserve managers caught between a euro and a dollar place

The pace of reserve accumulation may have been slowing over the past few years — although that also reflects  movements in the value of currencies within the portfolios, particularly the dollar — but there are good reasons to suggest it may be picking up again:

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The (early) Lunch Wrap

Good morning New York…


MOST: “The reflation trade may not have long legs”

For all the talk of heightened inflation expectations on the back of QE3, Morgan Stanley analysts remain unconvinced.

The truth, according to them, is that central bank action is having less than its desired effect. In fact, inflation expectations have remained well behaved if not subdued. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Friday,

- Some pleasant monetarist arithmetic from the ECB. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Spain bailout plan to be unveiled next Thursday: EU authorities are working behind the scenes to pave the way for a new Spanish rescue programme and unlimited bond buying by the ECB. According to officials involved in the discussions, talks between the Spanish government and the European Commission are focusing on measures that would be demanded by international lenders as part of a new rescue programme, ensuring they are in place before a bailout is formally requested. One senior European official said negotiations have been conducted directly with Luis de Guindos, the Spanish finance minister. The plan will focus on structural reforms to the Spanish economy long requested by Brussels, rather than new taxes and spending cuts. (Financial Times)

James Murdoch is being lined up to take direct responsibility for News Corp’s US television businesses, the FT has learnt. The news comes just as UK regulator Ofcom heavily criticised Murdoch’s record in that country, although it ultimately cleared him and deemed BSkyB fit to hold a licence. (Financial Times)(Ofcom statementRead more