Posts from Monday Jul 9 2012

The Closer


Another down day for US stocks. Global growth and the eurozone were blamed as the S&P 500 fell 0.16 per cent to 1,352.46 (Reuters). Read more

The dollar-euro repo arb?… Not yet

Well, here’s one answer to a question we’d been wondering about since last week, when the ECB lowered the deposit rate from 0.25 per cent to zero.

We were curious to know whether some EUR-denominated investors would switch into USD short-term markets in a search for yield. Read more

The great American consumer strikes again

Another notable increase in US consumer credit, this time for May…

 Read more

How to beat Apple in court: be uncool

On Monday, the UK’s High Court ruled against Apple in its lawsuit against Samsung, which Apple accused of copying its designs with the latest Galaxy tablet.

But part of the rationale given for the ruling by Judge Colin Birss was… unusualRead more

Tucker TV

Click the pic for the live* feed from Wilson Room, Portcullis House…

 Read more

Almost everyone goes mental about Libor

As last week was dominated by holidays and the Supreme Court’s healthcare ruling in the US, it’s taken a little longer than usual for some of the econoblogopunditsphere there to get really fired up about the Libor scandal. But it’s well and truly happening now.

First up Nouriel Roubini, who says things have become worse since then financial crisis: the TBTF banks are bigger, along with their conflicts of interest. Our (rough) transcript of one part follows: Read more

Taux négatifs

The latest sovereign to borrow at negative yields — France.

 Read more

The RED/Tucker files

Revealing little, but here it is — the Bank of England’s response to a Freedom of Information Act request from John Mann MP, seeking “copies of emails and transcripts of telephone conversations between Deputy Governor, Paul Tucker and Bob Diamond, Chief Executive of Barclays between 1 October 2008 and the 30 November 2008.”

Covering letter… (click the images) Read more

ECB deposit rate fallout

We hate to tell the ECB we told you so…

… but since it took less than a day for the first zero deposit victims to surface, we think it’s pretty telling that this is turning out to be a very big deal indeed. Read more

China and those dollar shorts

A few weeks ago FT Alphaville drew attention to a Standard Chartered report that quantified what we had been hearing via anecdotal reports for a while, namely that Chinese corporates had somehow ended up with a large dollar short position — estimate about $800bn — due to previous expectations that the Chinese renminbi would only ever strengthen against the US currency.

This, of course, is very reminiscent to the situation that non-eurozone emerging Europe found itself in after 2008. Many corporates there had shorted the euro and the Swiss franc on similar expectations that their own currencies would only keep strengthening — though this time related to euro adoption convergence effects. Read more

Markets Live transcript 9 Jul 2012

Live markets commentary from 

Noah Smith is a moron and he’ll get cancer soon, etc

Actually, Noah Smith, author of the Noahpinion blog, is not a moron. And we certainly do not hope that he’ll get ill.

But you see we have to get in character here, because this post is about ZerohedgeRead more

Japan’s machinery orders are (possibly) tankan

Japan machinery orders & 3-month moving average of same. Scotty Barber/Reuters

This chart about Japan’s machinery orders (from Scotty Barber) tells us two things: Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Good morning New York…


Time for unconventional unconventional policy?

Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius, in his response to the Friday non-farm payroll figures, says the bank’s central case of 1.5 to 2 per cent GDP growth in the US over the next four quarters “still feels right” although there are risks it will be weaker.

If that central case is right, Goldman expects further Fed easing. Read more

The ‘natural experiment’ of negative deposits rates in Denmark

Maybe not truly natural, as this is a matter of currency intervention, but close.

After the ECB lowered its interest and deposit rates on Thursday, the Danish central bank, Nationalbanken, followed a few hours laterRead more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Monday,

– Let’s get unconventional, unconventionalRead more

Weekend news catch-up

Weekend headlines from the FT and other UK media:*

From The FTRead more

The 6am Cut London

Asian stock markets fell and the yen rose after data showed Japanese machinery orders fell 14.8% in May from the previous month. (Bloomberg)

Japan’s current account surplus for May was its smallest since at least 1985. The surplus was 215.1bn yen, less than half the median estimate of 24 economists. (BloombergRead more