Posts from Friday Jul 6 2012

Seasonality and jobs, one more time

Our thinking on the US recovery has been that things were never quite as bad as we feared in the worst of times (the last two Augusts), and never quite as good as we’d hoped in the best of times (the last two winters).

Back in December, we first started writing about the possibility that distortions in seasonality adjustments — the result of the Census Bureau’s X12 algorithmic program having been thrown off by the severity of the downturn in the fourth quarter of 2008 — had exaggerated the economic upturns and downturns for the past couple of years. Read more

US energy data point du jour

In the last week of June, the Dept. of Energy released data for April showing that natural gas generated the same amount of power as coal-fired plants for the first time in recent history. Each fuel contributed 32% of total electric generation.

That’s from CreditSights (full note in the usual place), and here’s the visual going back a few years: Read more

Still missing: faster NGDP growth, or expectations thereof

We already discussed at length the evolving and (yet again) disappointing relationship between jobs and profits growth, along with the not-so-anomalous-in-context swings in productivity growth these past few years.

But it’s worth mentioning one more time given this morning’s crapadocious jobs report and the start of earnings season on Monday. Read more

UBS tackles the negative yield puzzle

Low yields in the context of epic supply may baffle some people, but not UBS’s Chris Lupoli.

Lupoli, part of Global Macro Team, seems, if anything, to subscribe to our negative carry shift theory — the idea that a more permanent curve transformation may be under way. Read more

Negativity at the door, euro money market fund edition

The cut in the deposit facility rate to zero will almost certainly move cash bids in short-dated instruments into negative territory, and so we have taken the step to restrict subscriptions and switches in to the Funds in order to protect existing shareholders from yield dilution…

That’s JPMorgan, explaining why it’s closed five European liquidity-themed funds to new investors, following Thursday’s rate cuts by the ECB. “We wish to restrict growth in assets at this time,” etc. Read more

‘The Libor matter,’ at the SFO

An FT headline, a few days ago (on a decision last summer):

SFO opted against probe into Libor

 Read more

June’s nonfarm payrolls: 80,000

A few notes on the report as we make our way through it:

— This sentence caught our eye: Read more

Bidders said to line up for Arkema


 Read more

Markets Live transcript 6 Jul 2012

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Good morning New York…


China’s asymmetrical and anti-bank rate cut

Everybody’s talking about China’s unexpected rate cut. But here’s why this particular rate cut is a little bit different.

It is, as Chinascope explains on Friday, asymmetrical: Read more

Spanish industrial output down just 6.1% in May

This is a result. Consensus was for an 8.5 per cent fall, after April’s 8.3 per cent contraction.

 Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Friday,

– Nate Silver previews the NFPs. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Asian stocks and crude oil fell and the euro headed for its worst week this year after stimulus measures from major central banks failed to assure investors the moves will be enough to boost economic growth. (Bloomberg) Investors are now focused on US jobs data due today. (Financial Times)

Barclays’ Libor settlement with the CFTC is likely to have far-reaching implications for how benchmark interest rates are set in the future. “The pact is unusual because it requires Barclays to not only beef up its internal compliance systems but to take on a role as an advocate for increased oversight for the industry.” (Financial TimesRead more