Posts from Monday Jun 18 2012

The Closer


No Greek relief rally for US markets either. The Nasdaq closed up 0.78 per cent at 2,895.33 after a strong showing by Apple stock. The S&P 500 edged up 0.14 per cent at 1,344.78 while the DJIA dipped down 0.20 per cent, closing at 12,741.89 (Reuters). Read more

Peltz bets on Lazard, future of M&A

We found out on Monday that Nelson Peltz’s investment firm Trian has a roughly 5.1 per cent chunk of Lazard.

Peltz doesn’t dominate the headlines like certain other activist investors, preferring to pick his spots and eschewing diversification in Trian’s portfolio. But he’s known for getting involved in his companies and has had some influence on the other two big financial services companies in which Trian has large stakes, State Street and Legg MasonRead more

A CoCo critique, Lloyds edition

It comes from a hedge fund activist par excellence:

That’s a letter (hat-tip to Bloomberg) from Christopher Hohn, managing partner at The Children’s Investment Fund, to British financial regulators questioning “loss absorbency” of contingent capital at the state-backed lender. The FT reportsRead more

The exponential growth in solar consumption

Gregor MacDonald, energy journalist and renewables guru, flagged up a really interesting piece of data from the latest BP Statistical Review this weekend.

It comes in the shape of the following chart (mocked up by MacDonald) showing an exponential growth in global solar consumption since 2001: Read more

The Swiss franc: proving a fundamental trilemma

This is the Swiss franc and the euro over the past year:

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Top of the OSI to you [updated]

Via RTÉ News earlier, hat-tip Lorcan…

In an effort to secure a return of Ireland to the markets, sources say the Troika is considering adjusting the terms of the country’s repayments. Instead of paying back EU loans over an average of 15 years it is considering extending them to 30 years.

 Read more

Dollar stats du jour

From Rabobank’s weekly dive into FX market positioning courtesy of the CFTC’s latest commitment of traders report:

USD longs have jumped to their highest levels not only for the year but since before our records started in 1999 as safe haven demand builds on the back of the EMU crisis and wider concerns regarding the global growth outlook.

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Vincent is innocent

Even the Serious Fraud Office agree. Belatedly.

Statement out of Vincent Tchenguiz’s Consensus Business Group on Monday — he’s no longer being treated as a suspect in the SFO’s long running investigation into the collapse of Iceland’s Kaupthing. Click to read: Read more

What comes first: European banking, political, or fiscal union?

It’s a commonly-held belief that the bailout of Spain’s banks won’t be sufficient to solve the country’s problems. It will increase the government’s borrowing, and may not be large enough anyway.

The real solution is fiscal banking political some kind of union. See if you can spot one of the barriers to moving forward with that: Read more

Markets Live transcript 18 Jun 2012

Live markets commentary from 

Dollar scarcity is on the rise

From Bloomberg on Monday (citing Morgan Stanley research):

Morgan Stanley says the potential scarcity of dollars among foreign private borrowers represents the U.S.’s net position with lenders abroad of minus $2.4 trillion, adding $4.8 trillion of U.S. financial assets held by central banks, and subtracting $500 billion of foreign official assets held by the U.S. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Good morning, New York…


Reserve Bank of India: we’re holding rates, YOU sort it out!

Right, we’ve had a few looks at India over the last while — at its crumbling rupee, widely reported deficits and stumbling, ineffective political system. Heck, Standards & Poor’s even got in on the act and prompted us to ask if the Brics are about to become the Brcs.

That all makes Monday’s decision to keep rates on hold by the Reserve Bank of India a bit more suprising than it might otherwise have been. From the RBI’s statement (our emphasis): Read more

Spanish bonds react (badly) to Greek election…

If this is the reaction to a New Democracy victory goodness knows what would have happened if the ‘bad guys’ had gotten in.

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Further reading

Elsewhere on Monday,

– Greek election round-up: Brad PlumerPaul KrugmanEdward HughMark GrantYanis VaroufakisJohn Cochrane, Joe WeisenthalRead more

The 6am Cut London

The Greek centre-right party New Democracy edged the emergent leftist party Syriza to hold a slim lead in Sunday’s closely watched elections, the FT reports. New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras will now try to form a governing coalition through an agreement with the socialist Pasok party and the leftist Democratic Left.  There remain many questions as to what will happen in the next few days and weeks. Assuming a coalition is formed (likely, but not a sure thing) the new government will then seek to renegotiate the terms of the bailout agreed in March.

Asian shares, the euro, US stock index futures and riskier commodities all climbed after the results of the Greek elections, reports ReutersRead more