Posts from Thursday Apr 26 2012

The Closer


US equity markets had a late-day rally despite early disappointing earnings from ExxonMobil and UPS and another weak reading in initial unemployment claims. (Financial Times)
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BBBasta — Spain cut to BBB+

S&P late on Thursday night became the first agency to cut Spain’s sovereign credit rating from the As to the Bs. It’s a two-notch downgrade from A to BBB+. Outlook negative.

They blamed (drumroll) worse-than-expected economic contraction: Read more

When PSI is futile (but then again, Cyprus)

Here’s a nice, Portugal-themed chart from Gabriel Sterne of Exotix.

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Claims-ian economics, seasonality edition

Here’s the scarier of two versions of what’s happening with initial jobless claims now:

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Dammit Pandit, we wanna talk to you

The river was deep but we swam it, Pandit.
The future is ours so let’s plan it, Pandit.
So please don’t tell me to can it, Pandit.
I’ve one thing to say and that’s
Dammit, Pandit, we wanna talk to you… (about levels of executive compensation).

We gave you a ring to prove that we’re no jokers
There’s three ways that love can grow
That’s good, bad or mediocre
Oh P-A-N-D-I-T we wanna talk to you… (about executive compensation).

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That was your eurozone lending retreat, from the BIS

Time for more BIS-timates of international banking activity — this time looking at developments in the deleveraging turn among eurozone lenders in late 2011.

These stats from the Bank for International Settlements go up to the end of December. Predictably they show a massive pullback in credit throughout the banking system with Europe and the eurozone leading the way. Read more

Deutsche the flow monster – it’s alive!

Arguably THE banking factoid of the year, by way of Espirito Santo’s review of Thursday’s Deutsche Bank conference call (see bold):

The conference call provided the first clear indication from management that reduced capital allocated to trading operations is impacting trading revenues in the IB. This has been a strong theme that we have highlighted to clients, which first arose as a concern in 4Q11. Read more

China is being buried alive in copper

According to Wikipedia, compulsive hoarding is a disorder characterized by the excessive acquisition and inability or unwillingness to discard large quantities of objects that would seemingly qualify as useless or without value.

We’d like to make the case that China is suffering from this disorder and that we’re at the stage where a psychopharmacological intervention needs to be organised by China’s friends and family. If not China’s hoarding tendencies could destroy the world as we know it. Read more

De-euroisation chartpalooza

In the recent years, the financial crisis has led to a marked deterioration in European financial integration…

You might say that’s a statement of the obvious from the ECB’s latest report on financial integration in the eurozone. Read more

Guest post: John Kemp on the ONS and the modern cult of statistics

Thanks to John Kemp, analyst at Reuters and long-time FT Alphaville favourite, for letting us cross-publish his column this morning. An archive of John’s work can be found here.

Economists and media commentators have lined up to question the accuracy of estimates published by Britain’s Office for National Statistics (ONS), showing gross domestic product shrank 0.2 percent in the first quarter, tipping the economy back into recession. Read more

Markets Live transcript 26 Apr 2012

Live markets commentary from 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Good morning, New York…


The sum of a car’s parts

The sum of the average global car’s component parts was $14,350 in 2011, according to estimates by analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. It was estimated to be $11,100 in 2000. Assembly costs are excluded from this figure.

But why the increase? Read more

Italy’s businesses play it coy

Italian business confidence has taken a serous hit, falling to its lowest level in two years in April.

According to the wires: Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Thursday,

– For Frack’s sake. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Asian markets were firm Thursday morning after the Fed published improved projections for the US economy, and Ben Bernanke did not rule out more stimulus, says the FT. More from us on reaction to the FOMC comments.

Mario Draghi is worrying about European growth, saying a “growth pact” was needed alongside the fiscal discipline pacts and that talk of an exit strategy for ECB easing was premature. Angela Merkel and François Hollande each interpreted the comments in different ways to support their own views on austerity, says the WSJRead more

Overnight markets: Mostly higher

Asian stocks rose for a second day and bond risk in the region fell after Ben Bernanke said he’s prepared to do more to stimulate growth if needed, says Bloomberg. The won strengthened as data showed South Korea’s economy grew at the fastest pace in a year.

Asian markets
Nikkei 225 down -5.82 (-0.06%) at 9,555
Topix down -0.29 (-0.04%) at 809.20
Hang Seng up +105.93 (+0.51%) at 20,752 Read more