Posts from Tuesday Apr 3 2012

The Closer


US equity markets fell and the dollar rallied after the minutes to the FOMC’s March 13 statement indicated that the Fed might be less likely to engage in quantitative easing than previously thought. (Financial Times) Gold declined roughly 2 per cent. (ReutersRead more

Now you see the promissory notes in the deficit, now you don’t

“We’ll avoid the accounting implications of this deal, though we think it might be an interesting study,” we said last week of Ireland’s circuitous non-deferral deferral of a €3.06bn cash payment to a dead bank under the infamous promissory notes.

Oops. Read more

FOMC minutes for the statement of 13 March 2012

Dollar up, US equities down, with the Dow falling more than 100 points — that was the immediate reaction to the release of the FOMC minutes.

A few things to note as we come across them: Read more

The pros and cons of the Fed’s three options

Nothing was decided in the March 13 FOMC statement, though it did include the Fed’s cautious recognition that the prospects for the US economy had improved since the start of the year.

But the minutes from the meeting, set to be released on Tuesday at 2pm EST, are likely to scrutinised carefully for any discussion of what the Fed might do next. Read more

Raison d’etat and leaving the euro, by Jurre (aged 11)

The eurocrisis is a big problem. I think about solutions.

Here is why we at FT Alphaville think Jurre Hermans’ proposal for (or subtly ironic warning of the costs of?) a Greek eurozone exit is absolutely brilliant. Brilliant in its brutal honesty about what eurozone exit, if that is the path chosen, means, that is. Read more

Pricing in (out) a Murdoch? [updated — BSkyB confirms]

Is it us, or is there not much reaction from BSkyB’s share price (down 0.66 per cent at pixel time, via Google Finance) to the imminent exit of its chairman, James Murdoch…

 Read more

The disappearing Spanish GC repo market

Thanks to Mario Draghi’s double installment of 3-year LTROs this year and last, it’s been a while since we’ve had to worry about dysfunctions in the European repo market. Indeed, it wasn’t that long ago that the market’s problems appeared fully contained. But, could we have spoken to soon?

News now comes to us of another case of “causation or correlation?” striking European bond markets. This time relating to Spanish collateral. Read more

Markets Live transcript 3 Apr 2012

Live markets commentary from 

The Lunch Wrap

Good morning, New York


FSA hits Ian Hannam (now ex-JP Morgan Cazenove) for £450,000 [updated]

That is one serious fine… and one very serious resignation.

From the FSA’s statement (emphasis ours): Read more

The PMIs, the ISM, the S&P 500, and the sand in the face

On Monday, the US did the playground equivalent of kicking sand in Europe’s face, picking up all the toys, and then running away laughing.

After some rather glum manufacturing PMI figures were released for the eurozone for March, it was revealed that the February unemployment rate had inched up to 10.8 per cent. As usual, the headline figures hid sharp divergences between core and peripheral economies. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Tuesday,

– Living the dream of solar energy… notRead more

The 6am Cut London

The US manufacturing sector expanded in March, “underlining the diverging fates of the world’s biggest economy and the eurozone,” the FT writes. The US ISM index slightly bested estimates with a 53.4 reading, while PMIs across the eurozone confirmed an expected contraction of manufacturing activity. The PMI for Britain registered its highest reading in ten months, surprising everyone. (Financial Times)

Unemployment throughout the eurozone also rose last month, according to figures from Eurostat. (Wall Street JournalRead more